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Special Seminar and Focus Group on “Improving Thai Television Sector in the face of Special Seminar and Focus Group on “Improving Thai Television Sector in the face of ASEAN Economic Community” 27 March 2015 Conference Room 1, Conference Building Office of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) Bangkok, THAILAND • Dr John Ure Director, TRPC Ltd (Singapore) Director, TRP Social Science Research Centre University of Hong Kong 1

AGENDA • Technologies, access and delivery systems • Business models and regulatory challenges • AGENDA • Technologies, access and delivery systems • Business models and regulatory challenges • The economics of AV and copyright issues • The audio-visual market, services and trade • The digital dividend 2

Not too much for Muchie! This is Muchie, a two-year old girl from the Not too much for Muchie! This is Muchie, a two-year old girl from the Philippines She taught herself • • Numbers Colours Names of animals and how they sound Parts of the human face at the age of 1½ years on You. Tube 3

The AV Jigsaw Amazon TV Internet Broadcast TV Netflix Smartphone Apple TV Social media The AV Jigsaw Amazon TV Internet Broadcast TV Netflix Smartphone Apple TV Social media Multi-platform Web TV 4

The AV Evolution 1 Wireless Broadcast 3 Radio spectrum issues Fixed telephony Fixed backend The AV Evolution 1 Wireless Broadcast 3 Radio spectrum issues Fixed telephony Fixed backend 2 Wireless frontend 5

AV Technologies, Access and Delivery Technologies Digital + HD Internet + HDMI Access TV AV Technologies, Access and Delivery Technologies Digital + HD Internet + HDMI Access TV sets PCs Wireless devices such as tablets, smartphones, games consoles, etc. Linear vs. non-linear Delivery 1. Broadcast vs. streaming 2. Linear vs. non-linear 3. OTA broadcast, cable/Satellite, VOD, IPTV, Web TV, Mobile TV, OTT, CDNs, social media/You. Tube, DVDs, etc. 6

Business models and regulatory challenges Regulatory Linear Non-linear How to define the market? • Business models and regulatory challenges Regulatory Linear Non-linear How to define the market? • By audience? • By revenue sources? • By cross-elasticity? (what are the close substitutes? ) Broadcast (subs + ads) + syndication + sales (DVDs, etc. ) + re-broadcast rights Broadcast (subs + ads) + IPRs (how easy to monitor/enforce especially across jurisdictions? ) + ratings to cover all views? + merge, partner, sponsor 7 social media?

Business models and regulatory challenges • Globally, on average around 50% of TV revenues Business models and regulatory challenges • Globally, on average around 50% of TV revenues come from ads. (Ref. ADB (2012) Audio-visual Services: International Trade and Cultural Policy) • Domestic TV Ø Regulation based upon social impact? (or social influence by powerful interests? Economic, cultural, political, ideological factors) = what impact non-linear access and distribution? Ø Is competition seen as good or not-so-good? = choice? Innovation? Race to the bottom? Cultural marginalization? Ø Converged regulation? = real or not? • Global TV Ø Import market – by commercial agreement vs. cross-border spillage vs. Internet and the cloud? Ø Export market – need economies of scale and/or innovation 8

Summary of regulatory issues Regulations vary considerably across Asia – what is the criteria? Summary of regulatory issues Regulations vary considerably across Asia – what is the criteria? • Is there an independent regulator • Copyright protection • Restrictions on retransmission of foreign channels/advertising • Uplink/downlink policies • Licence fees • Authorization of alternative distribution platforms (can they be regulated? ) • Regulation of wholesale and retail rates • Cross-media ownership restrictions • Is programme tiering allowed? /a la carte programming mandatory? • Pay TV ads allowed or not • Pay TV ad mintuage • Content control • Local content quotas • Regulations on language, dubbing, subtitles • Exclusivity, ‘must provide’ and ‘must provide’ • FDI limits on Pay TV wholesale or distribution See Casbaa Regulating for Growth 2012 (2014 for members only) http: //www. chinagoabroad. com/sites/v 2/files/article/attachment/Regulating%20 f or%20 Growth%202012%20 Chinese%20 and%20 English. pdf 9

The economics of AV and copyright issues “… audio-visual services are non-rival and partly The economics of AV and copyright issues “… audio-visual services are non-rival and partly nonexcludable. The latter characteristics imply that markets must be created through the establishment and enforcement of intellectual property rights. Cross border trade in audio-visual services is essentially transactions related to the right to distribute, view or listen to audio-visual content. ” Ref: Nordås, H. K. et al. (2014), “Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI): Audio-visual Services”, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 174, OECD Publishing http: //dx. doi. org/10. 1787/5 jxt 4 nj 4 fc 22 -en 10

Technology and Copyright • Broadcast vs. streaming: Nielsen has agreed to revise audience ratings Technology and Copyright • Broadcast vs. streaming: Nielsen has agreed to revise audience ratings system to include non-linear audience estimates Ø Important for setting ad tariffs & therefore revenues Ø Can copyright be enforceable over Paul Goldstein’s ‘Celestial Jukebox’? (Copyright’s Highway: From Gutenberg to the Celestial Jukebox – 2003) – the public-private use distinction remains critical “… it would be a serious mistake for policy makers (and I include the courts) to reflexively reach for a new exemption or an expanded fair use any time copyright appears to stand in the way of the roll out of some new technology. It would be a mistake because the characteristic impediment in all of these cases is not copyright, but the transaction costs associated with securing licenses under copyright. The proper target, then, is not copyright, but transaction costs, and digital facilities, including the Internet, offer dramatic possibilities for reducing these transaction costs to close to zero. ” (Paul Goldstein’s Copyright’s Highway: From Gutenberg to the Celestial Jukebox – 2003 - see: http: //www. sociallyawareblog. com/? s=Paul+Goldstein)

The economics of AV and copyright issues “Despite international agreements, the will to actually The economics of AV and copyright issues “Despite international agreements, the will to actually implement and uphold copyright at ground level is not shared with equal enthusiasm in all territories around the globe. Countries such as, for example, the PRC and the Philippines have been characterized by weak enforcement of copyright related to audio-visual works and by high levels of piracy in recent years (Cocq and Levy 2006: 79; Edgecliffe-Johnson 2011). Digital piracy has been prevalent in Korea where levels of connection to an exceptionally well-advanced internet infrastructure are high (Ibid. ) “ ADB (2012) Audio-visual Services: International Trade and Cultural Policy 12

Copyright Issues: Content & Control… Digital Media Project (Harvard) http: //www. ftc. gov/bcp/workshops/techade/pdfs/Gasser 2. Copyright Issues: Content & Control… Digital Media Project (Harvard) http: //www. ftc. gov/bcp/workshops/techade/pdfs/Gasser 2. pdf 13

Audio-Visual services and trade “Audio-visual services account for a relatively small share of GDP, Audio-Visual services and trade “Audio-visual services account for a relatively small share of GDP, between 0. 5 and 1% in the countries for which information is available. Nevertheless audio-visual services are among the most globalised of all services industries and a sector where cross-border trade is vital. The proliferation of broadband internet services has brought new opportunities and challenges to the industry as well as to policy makers and regulators. ” Ref: Nordås, H. K. et al. (2014), “Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI): Audio-visual Services”, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 174, OECD Publishing http: //dx. doi. org/10. 1787/5 jxt 4 nj 4 fc 22 -en 14

Audio-Visual Services and Trade • “The STRI (Services Trade Restrictiveness Index) indices take values Audio-Visual Services and Trade • “The STRI (Services Trade Restrictiveness Index) indices take values between zero and one, one representing a totally closed and zero a fully open sector. The results show that the overall index level is low to moderate with an average of 0. 16 for sound recording, 0. 18 for motion pictures and 0. 28 for broadcasting. Limitations on movement of people account for a large share of the index value for most countries in sound recording. Motion pictures are relatively liberal on average, but there is substantial variation among countries. The highest scores are found in countries where there are foreign equity limits for movie theatres, producers or distributors; where there are quotas for local films in theatres or on television, or where national treatment is not granted foreign suppliers. ” 15

jj 16 jj 16

The Digital Dividend 17 The Digital Dividend 17

Penetration of Digital TV by OECD country as % TV households, 2011 18 Penetration of Digital TV by OECD country as % TV households, 2011 18

ASO in ASEAN 19 ASO in ASEAN 19

Thank You johnure@trpc. biz Muchie 20 Thank You [email protected] biz Muchie 20