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Social Policy: Education Development Economics (Hons) Nic Spaull Nicspaull. com/research 13 May 2015 Social Policy: Education Development Economics (Hons) Nic Spaull Nicspaull. com/research 13 May 2015

Social Policy & Education Firstly, what is social policy? “Social policy primarily refers to Social Policy & Education Firstly, what is social policy? “Social policy primarily refers to the guidelines, principles, legislation and activities that affect the living conditions conducive to human welfare” “Public policy and practice in the areas of health care, human services, criminal justice, inequality, education, and labour” “Social Policy is defined as actions that affect the well-being of members of a society through shaping the distribution of and access to goods and resources in that society”

Social Policy & Education • Secondly, how does education fit into it? – Most Social Policy & Education • Secondly, how does education fit into it? – Most areas of social policy influence education (in some way), and are influenced by education (in some way) – Bidirectional causality – Multiple benefits of education…

Ed Benefits of education H S Ec Society üImproved human rights üEmpowerment of women Ed Benefits of education H S Ec Society üImproved human rights üEmpowerment of women üReduced societal violence üPromotion of a national (as opposed to regional or ethnic) identity üIncreased social cohesion Health üLower fertility üImproved child health üPreventative health care üDemographic transition $ Economy üImprovements in productivity üEconomic growth üReduction of inter-generational cycles of poverty üReductions in inequality Specific references: lower fertility (Glewwe, 2002), improved child health (Currie, 2009), reduced societal violence (Salmi, 2006), promotion of a national - as opposed to a regional or ethnic - identity (Glewwe, 2002), improved human rights (Salmi, 2006), increased social cohesion (Heyneman, 2003), Economic growth – see any decent Macro textbook, specifically for cognitive skills see (Hanushek & Woessman 2008)

Social Policy & Education • Secondly, how does education fit into it? – Education Social Policy & Education • Secondly, how does education fit into it? – Education itself affects society & the individual in real and meaningful ways: • Transforms individual capabilities, values, aspirations and desires (see Sen) • Allows individuals to think, feel and act in different ways • Enables new ways of organizing and supporting social action that depend on numeracy and literacy, technologies of communication and abstract thinking skills (Lewin, 2007). Democratic participation, knowledge creation etc. • Education increases peoples ability to add value (productivity) • “Modernising societies use educational access and attainment as a primary mechanism to sort and select subsequent generations into different social and economic roles” (Lewin, 2007: 3) Distribution of income – NB NB Education is different to the other forms of social policy in that it has the potential to change the GENERATIVE MECHANISMS of the income distribution, not simply re-allocating it once earned (as with grants)

Theory: Human Capital Education increases peoples ability to add value (productivity) HCM + Man Theory: Human Capital Education increases peoples ability to add value (productivity) HCM + Man = Skills & health Incr MP of L Incr profits Incr wage “The failure to treat human resources explicitly as a form of capital, as a produced means of production, as the product of investment, has fostered the retention of the classical notion of labour as a capacity to do manual work requiring little knowledge and skill, a capacity with which, according to this notion, labourers are endowed about equally. This notion of labour was wrong in the classical period and it is patently wrong now. Counting individuals who can and want to work and treating such a count as a measure of the quantity of an economic factor is no more meaningful than it would be to count the number of all manner of machines to determine their economic importance” (Schultz, 1961, p. 3).

Theory: Sorting & signalling • Education does not improve productivity or produce HC, instead Theory: Sorting & signalling • Education does not improve productivity or produce HC, instead acts as a signal of innate productivity/IQ/motivation. – Those with higher productivity/IQ/motivation will find it easier to get higher levels of education than those with lower P/IQ/M • Do we care if it is HCM or Signalling? – Yes! Implications for public investment.

Elusive equity • Given the strong links between education and income, educational inequality is Elusive equity • Given the strong links between education and income, educational inequality is a fundamental determinant of income inequality. • Clear need to understand SA educational inequality if we are to understand SA income inequality. • High inequality + unemployment 2 of the most severe problems facing SA – Educational quality is intimately intertwined with both of these. • “Education shall be free, compulsory, universal and equal for all children” (Freedom Charter) • Fiske and Ladd’s (2004) notions of: 1. Equal treatment 2. Equal educational opportunity 3. Educational adequacy

Not all schools are born equal ? Pretoria Boys High School SA public schools? Not all schools are born equal ? Pretoria Boys High School SA public schools? 9

Education and inequality? Quality of education Duration of education Type of education SA is Education and inequality? Quality of education Duration of education Type of education SA is the most unequal country in the world Between 78% and 85% of total inequality is explained by wage inequality Wages • IQ • Motivation • Social networks • Discrimination

11 Leibbrandt et al 2010 11 Leibbrandt et al 2010

Labour Market • • University/ FET High productivity jobs and incomes (15%) Mainly professional, Labour Market • • University/ FET High productivity jobs and incomes (15%) Mainly professional, managerial & skilled jobs Requires graduates, good quality matric or good vocational skills 15% Legislators, managers, assoc professionals • Vocational training • Affirmative action (few make this transition) Low productivity jobs & incomes • • Often manual or low skill jobs Limited or low quality education • • High quality secondary school Type of institution (FET or University) Quality of institution Type of qualification (diploma, degree etc. ) Field of study (Engineering, Arts etc. ) High quality primary school Some motivated, lucky or talented students make the transition Semi. Skilled (32%) Clerks, service workers, shop personnel, skilled agric/fishery workers, plant and machinery operators) Unskilled (18%) Elementary occupations & domestic workers - Low quality secondary school High SES background (with early childhood development) Minority (20%) Big demand for good schools despite fees Some scholarships/bursaries Unequal society Majority (80%) Low socioeconomic status background Low quality primary school Unemployed (Broad - 35%) 12 Statistics from Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) 2014 Q 4

Bimodality – indisputable fact PIRLS / TIMSS / SACMEQ / NSES / ANA / Bimodality – indisputable fact PIRLS / TIMSS / SACMEQ / NSES / ANA / Matric… by Wealth / Language / Location / Dept… 13

Student performance 2003 -2011 TIMSS (2003) PIRLS (2006) SACMEQ (2007) ANA (2011) TIMSS (2011) Student performance 2003 -2011 TIMSS (2003) PIRLS (2006) SACMEQ (2007) ANA (2011) TIMSS (2011) pre. PIRLS (2011) TIMSS 2003 (Gr 8 Maths & Science) PIRLS 2006 (Gr 4/5 – Reading) • Out of 50 participating countries (including 6 African countries) SA came last • Out of 45 participating countries SA came last SACMEQ III 2007 (Gr 6 – Reading & Maths) • Only 10% reached low international benchmark • 87% of gr 4 and 78% of Gr 5 learners deemed to be • ANASA came 10/15 for reading and 8/15 for maths 2011 (Gr 1 -6 Reading & Maths) • No improvement from TIMSS 1999 -TIMSS 2003 “at serious risk of not learning to read” behind countries such as Swaziland, Kenya and • TIMSS 2011 (Gr 9 – Maths & Science) Mean literacy score gr 3: 35% Tanzania SA has joint lowest performance of 42 countries • • Mean numeracy score gr 3: 28% pre. PIRLS 2011 (Gr 4 Reading) Improvement by 1. 5 grade levels (2003 -2011) • • Mean literacy score gr 6: 28% • • 29% of SA Gr 4 learners completely 76% of grade nine students in 2011 still had not • Mean numeracy score gr 6: 30% acquired a basic understanding about whole illiterate (cannot decode text in any • NSES 2007/8/9 numbers, decimals, operations or basic graphs, langauge) and this is at the improved level of performance • Systemic Evaluations 2007 • Matric exams 14

NSES question 42 NSES followed about 15000 students (266 schools) and tested them in NSES question 42 NSES followed about 15000 students (266 schools) and tested them in Grade 3 (2007), Grade 4 (2008) and Grade 5 (2009). Grade 3 maths curriculum: “Can perform calculations using appropriate symbols to solve problems involving: division of at least 2 -digit by 1 -digit numbers” 100% Even at the end of Grade 5 most (55%+) quintile 1 -4 students cannot answer this simple Grade-3 -level problem. 90% 35% 80% 70% 59% 57% 55% 60% 13% 14% 50% 40% 13% 14% 13% 10% 12% 10% 16% 19% 17% Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Correct in Gr 5 15% 20% Still wrong in Gr 5 30% Correct in Gr 4 39% 0% Correct in Gr 3 “The powerful notions of ratio, rate and proportion are built upon the simpler concepts of whole number, multiplication and division, fraction and rational number, and are themselves the precursors to the development of yet more complex concepts such as triangle similarity, trigonometry, gradient and calculus” (Taylor & Reddi, 2013: 194) Q 5 Question 42 (Spaull & Viljoen, forthcoming) 15

Matric 2014 (relative to Gr 2 in 2004) 14% Did not reach matric in Matric 2014 (relative to Gr 2 in 2004) 14% Did not reach matric in 2014 Reached matric & failed 51% 23% 12% • • • 550, 000 students drop out before matric 99% do not get a non-matric qualification (Gustafsson, 2011: p 11) What happens to them? 50% youth unemployment… Reached matric & passed Reached matric and passed with bachelors Grade 2 (2004) Grade 9 (2011) Grade 12 (2014) Passed (2014) Bachelors (2014) Numbers 1085570 1049904 532860 16 403874 150752

Insurmountable learning deficits Figure 10 b: South African mathematics learning trajectories by national socioeconomic Insurmountable learning deficits Figure 10 b: South African mathematics learning trajectories by national socioeconomic quintiles using a variable standard deviation for a year of learning (0. 28 in grade 3 to 0. 2 in grade 8 with interpolated values for in-between grades (Based on NSES 2007/8/9 for grades 3/4/5, SACMEQ 2007 for grade 6 and TIMSS 2011 for grade 9, including 95% confidence interval 13 12 11 10 Effective grade 9 8 Quintile 1 7 Quintile 2 6 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 5 Quintile 5 4 Q 1 -4 Trajectory 3 Q 5 Trajectory 2 1 0 Gr 3 Gr 4 (NSES 2007/8/9) Gr 5 Gr 6 Gr 7 Gr 8 Gr 9 Gr 10 (SACMEQ 2007) Projections (TIMSS 2011) Actual grade (and data source) Gr 11 Gr 12 Projections Spaull & Viljoen, 2015 17

The impact of SES on reading/maths (SACMEQ III – 2007 Gr 6) • Almost The impact of SES on reading/maths (SACMEQ III – 2007 Gr 6) • Almost 40% of SA student reading achievement can be explained by socioeconomic status (31 assets, books, parental education) alone. • In South Africa socioeconomic status largely determines outcomes (with a very small number of exceptions – see newspapers for examples) • Indication of wasted human capital potential (see Schleicher, 2009) Spaull, 2013

Intergenerational poverty Ideal world (AKA Finland ) 1. Means blind – Ideally, an education Intergenerational poverty Ideal world (AKA Finland ) 1. Means blind – Ideally, an education system should be ‘means blind’ in that it offers equal educational opportunities to all students. 2. Meritocratic – Ideally, an individuals success at school (and later in the labour-market) should depend on ability and effort not class or wealth. • In SA, neither of these criteria are met. Low quality education is a poverty trap. Low quality education Low social mobility Hereditary poverty

Further discussion • Access and Quality Allocated Resources Realised Resources Utilised Resources Further discussion • Access and Quality Allocated Resources Realised Resources Utilised Resources

Accountability & Capacity 21 Accountability & Capacity 21

Accountability without capacity • “Accountability systems and incentive structures, no matter how well designed, Accountability without capacity • “Accountability systems and incentive structures, no matter how well designed, are only as effective as the capacity of the organization to respond. The purpose of an accountability system is to focus the resources and capacities of an organization towards a particular end. Accountability systems can’t mobilize resources that schools don’t have. . . the capacity to improve precedes and shapes schools’ responses to the external demands of accountability systems (Elmore, 2004 b, p. 117). • “If policy-makers rely on incentives for improving either a school or a student, then the question arises, incentives to do what? What exactly should educators in failing schools do tomorrow - that they do not do today to produce more learning? What should a failing student do tomorrow that he or she is not doing today? ” (Loveless, 2005, pp. 16, 26). • “People who are being asked to do things they don’t know how to do, and being rewarded and punished on the basis of what they don’t know, rather than what they are learning, become skilled at subverting the purposes and authority of the systems in which they work. Bad policies produce bad behaviour. Bad behaviour produces value for no one” (Elmore, 2004 a, p. 22). 22

Capacity without accountability • “In the absence of accountability sub-systems, support measures are very Capacity without accountability • “In the absence of accountability sub-systems, support measures are very much a hit and miss affair. Accountability measures provide motivation for and direction to support measures, by identifying capacity shortcomings, establishing outcome targets, and setting in place incentives and sanctions which motivate and constrain teachers and managers throughout the system to apply the lessons learned on training courses in their daily work practices. Without these, support measures are like trying to push a piece of string: with the best will in the world, it has nowhere to go. Conversely, the performance gains achieved by accountability measures, however efficiently implemented, will reach a ceiling when the lack of leadership and technical skills on the part of managers, and curricular knowledge on the part of teachers, places a limit on improved performance. Thus, the third step in improving the quality of schooling is to provide targeted training programs to managers and teachers. To achieve optimal effects, these will need to connect up with and be steered by accountability measures” (Taylor, 2002, p. 17). 23

Good description of human behaviour • “The traditions of school effectiveness research and the Good description of human behaviour • “The traditions of school effectiveness research and the economics of education bring complementary perspectives to bear. While the former assumes that individual actors, and in particular school principals and teachers, are motivated by altruism and the desire to do the best for the learners in their care, economists assume that actors are motivated largely by self-interest. Taken together, these views sound like a good description of human behaviour” (Taylor, Van der Berg & Mabogoane, 2013: 24) 24

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“Only when schools have both the incentive to respond to an accountability system as “Only when schools have both the incentive to respond to an accountability system as well as the capacity to do so will there be an improvement in student outcomes. ” (p 22) 31

SA educational inequality SA educational inequality

Questions • If not the quality of education, what is the driving force behind Questions • If not the quality of education, what is the driving force behind income inequality? – Demand-side factors > supply-side? ! • Why is it so difficult to change educational outcomes? (20 years since 1994!) • What are the key interactions between education and health/social-security?

Conclusion Persistent patterns of poverty and privilege Low quality education Low social mobility Hereditary Conclusion Persistent patterns of poverty and privilege Low quality education Low social mobility Hereditary poverty • Educational inequality is at the heart of income inequality and poverty – Increasing wages for the majority of Black labour market entrants is necessary to lower income inequality – This is not possible without improving the quality of education they receive • SA has 2 education systems not one – Implications for reporting (means are misleading) – Implications for policy • SA cannot convert material advantage into cognitive skills – Inefficient use of resources

Conclusions & Implications Low quality education Low social mobility Hereditary poverty Persistent patterns of Conclusions & Implications Low quality education Low social mobility Hereditary poverty Persistent patterns of poverty and privilege 35

Suggestions ü Acknowledge the extent of the problem • Low quality education is one Suggestions ü Acknowledge the extent of the problem • Low quality education is one of the three largest crises facing our country (along with HIV/AIDS and unemployment). Need the political will and public support for widespread reform. ü Experiment to figure out what works • More of the same hasn’t worked Need to try new things and rigorously evaluate them to see what works. – Workbooks & ANA’s are a positive sign (Workbook delivery? ) – Failed programmes provide useful information when acknowledged & disseminated. • Leave existing salaries the same but pay good teachers more – why not? ü Increase accountability, information & transparency • Where is the money going? • Deal ruthlessly with corruption – this is a social crime. • For at least one grade (Gr 6? ) get ANA externally validated by an independent body like Umalusi and get this information to parents need to empower parents with information in an accessible format

References • • • Becker, G. (1962). Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis. References • • • Becker, G. (1962). Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis. The Journal of Political Economy, 70(5), 9 -49. Currie, J. (2009). Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Socioeconomic Status, Poor Health in Childhood, and Human Capital Development. Journal of Economic Literature, 47(1), 87 -122. Donalson, A. (1992). Content, Quality and Flexibility: The Economics of Education System Change. Spotlight 5/92. Johannesburg: South African Institute of Race Relations. Fleisch, B. (2008). Primary Education in Crisis: Why South African schoolchildren underachieve in reading and mathematics. Cape Town. : Juta & Co. Hanushek, E. & Woessmann, L. (2008). The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development. Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Working Paper No. 07 -34. Hoadley, U. (2010). What do we know about teaching and learning in primary schools in South Africa? Stellenbosch: Appendix B to Van der Berg, S; Meyer, H; Reeves, C; van Wyk, C; Hoadley, U; Bot, M; & Armstrong, P 2010. 'Grade 3 Improvement Project: Main report and Recommendations" for Western Cape Education Department. Schultz, T. (1961). Investment in Human Capital. The American Economic Review , 51 (1), 1 -17. Shepherd, D. (2011). Constraints to School Effectiveness: What prevents poor schools from delivering results? Stellenbosch Economic Working Papers 05/11. Spaull, N. (2011). Primary School Performance in Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa: A Comparative Analysis of SACMEQ III. SACMEQ Working Papers , 1 -74. Taylor, S. (2011). Uncovering Indicators of Effective School Management in South Africa using the National School Effectiveness Study. Stellenbosch Economic Working Papers. Van der Berg, S. (2007). Apartheid's Enduring Legacy: Inequalities in Education. Journal of African Economies, 16(5), 849 -880.

Thank you www. nicspaull. com/research nicholasspaull@gmail. com @Nic. Spaull Thank you www. nicspaull. com/research [email protected] com @Nic. Spaull

ECD Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr ECD Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6 – Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase Mother-tongue instruction De facto / De jure ? Primary school High school Main drop-out zone 39

Theory – education in SA SES at birth • Type of tertiary education (quality) Theory – education in SA SES at birth • Type of tertiary education (quality) - institution and field of study • Demand supply • Individual motivation Cognitive ability in early childhood Labour market performance • Parental IQ (assortative mating) • Maternal health • Nutrition • Early cognitive stimulation: preschool (quantity & quality), home environment South Africa • Cost of tertiary education (explicit & implicit costs) • Parental & personal aspirations and perceptions • Society/culture Ultimate educational attainment and quality Educational performance in early school years • Average school SES • Language of learning & teaching (LOLT) • Teacher quality • Peer effects • Subject choice Educational achievement in matric (See Taylor, 2010)

Overview of what we know about inequality and underperformance in South Africa Overview of what we know about inequality and underperformance in South Africa

Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6 – Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase National School Effectiveness Study (NSES) • Grade 3 (2007); Grade 4 (2008); Grade 5 (2009) – Panel 268 schools • [All provinces except Gauteng] __________________ Underperformance • Language: In 44% of Gr 4 and 32% of Gr 5 classes there was no paragraph writing done over the year (from best learner). • Mathematics: 88% of Gr 5 maths teachers covered no more than 35 of the 89 topics (40%) in the gr 5 maths curriculum Inequality • Frequency of paragraph writing (half a page or less) EC/KZN=1. 7; WC=5. 8 /year • Grade 3 students in historically white schools perform much better on the same test than grade 5 students from historically black schools Taylor, 2011 42

Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6 – Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase PIRLS 2006 – see Shepherd (2011) pre. PIRLS 2011 • Grade 4 – all 11 languages • 433 schools, 19259 students __________________ Underperformance • 29% of gr 4 students did not reach the low international benchmark – they could not read • SA performs similarly to Botswana, but 3 years learning behind average Columbian Gr 4 Inequality • Linguistic inequalities: Large differences by home language – Xitsonga, Tshivenda and Sepedi students particularly disadvantaged • PIRLS (2006) showed LARGE differences between African language schools and Eng/Afr schools • Howie et al (2011) • *Data now available for download 43

Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6 – Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase SACMEQ 2007 • Grade 6 – Numeracy and literacy • 392 schools, 9071 students __________________ Underperformance Inequality • Large differences between quintiles (see table later) • Large inequalities in maths teacher content knowledge Mean Lower bound confidence interval (95%) Upper bound confidence interval (95%) 950 Maths-teacher mathematics score • 27% of students functionally illiterate • SA performs worse than many low-income African countries (Tanzania, Kenya, Swaziland, Zimbabwe) • No improvement between SACMEQ II (2000) and SACMEQ III (2007) • Although majority (98%) of students are enrolled, sometimes almost no learning 900 14 850 800 11 12 9 10 750 700 650 600 2 3 4 5 6 7 19 13 8 18 15 16 17 1 44 Gr 6 Teacher Content Knowledge - see Mc. Kay & Spaull (2013)

53 61 50 8 5 1 11 ny a ia Ke m ib Sw 53 61 50 8 5 1 11 ny a ia Ke m ib Sw bw Ta nz ut So an e a Ug 54 3 15 13 7 ia 2 ba th so Le M al 17 8 27 Na 11 an d i bi aw a 0% 18 11 34 62 50 Zim 14 19 a 12 45 30 31 20% 58 o 39 37 52 60% 40% 18 25 26 an d 13 az il 9 ric 44 80% 2 Af 6 h 100% Za m Literacy Never enrolled or dropped out prior to Grade 6 Enrolled but functionally illiterate (Levels 1 -2) by grade 6 Enrolled and acquired basic reading skills (Levels 3 -5) by grade 6 Enrolled and acquired higher order reading skills (Levels 6 -8) by grade 6 120% 2 8 11 13 71 11 5 ny a ila Sw az za ba nd 2 8 11 15 ni a 24 Zim So Ug an so ib m 77 11 ia i Na aw al M a bi m 11 da 7 64 39 34 14 12 0% 37 th o 44 20% 58 50 a 51 Le 59 40% 5 Ke 53 10 Ta n 50 60% 10 8 e 46 34 2 ric 80% 3 bw 0 1 29 ut h Af 100% Za SACMEQ III (Spaull & Taylor, 2012) 120% Numeracy Never enrolled or dropped out prior to grade 6 Enrolled but functionally innumerate (Levels 1 -2) by grade 6 Enrolled and acquired basic numeracy skills (Levels 3 -5) by grade 6 Enrolled and acquired higher order numeracy skills (Levels 6 -8) by grade 6

Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6 – Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase 480 440 TIMSS 2011 Underperformance • 76% of Gr 9 students had not acquired a basic understanding about whole numbers, decimals, operations or basic graphs (i. e. had not reached low int. benchmark) • Avg. Gr 9 SA student is 2 yrs (2. 8 yrs) behind the average Gr 8 student from a middle income country in maths (science) • Contrary to popular belief, even South Africa’s “top” schools do not perform well by international standards… Inequality 360 320 TIMSS score • Grade 9 – Maths and science • 285 schools, 11969 students __________________ 400 280 240 160 120 443 433 200 352 276 275 264 1995 1999 2002 332 285 260 243 244 1995 1999 2002 268 80 40 0 Grade 8 2011 TIMSS middle-income country Gr 8 mean Grade 9 Grade 8 TIMSS Mathematics 2002 2011 TIMSS middle-income country Grade 9 TIMSS Science • Avg Q 1/Q 2 Gr 9 student is 3 yrs (4 yrs) worth of learning behind the average Q 5 student in maths (science) • Avg Gr 9 student in ECA is 2 yrs worth of learning behind avg Gr 9 student in GAU *Data now available for download 46

Performance of quintile five schools in TIMSS 2003 Maths – see Taylor MST (2011) Performance of quintile five schools in TIMSS 2003 Maths – see Taylor MST (2011) Even Q 5 schools in SA perform at a comparatively low level

Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6 – Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase Grade 10 (2 years earlier) Matric 1200000 Inequality • Subject combinations differ between rich and poor – differential access to higher education • Maths / Maths-lit case in point • Are more students taking maths literacy because THEY cannot do pure-maths, or because their TEACHERS cannot teach pure-maths? 60% 1000000 50% 800000 Number of students • Of 100 students that enroll in grade 1 approximately 50 will make it to matric, 40 will pass and 12 will qualify for university Pass matric with maths Proportion of matrics taking mathematics • Grade 12 – Various • Roughly half the cohort __________________ Underperformance Grade 12 Those who pass matric 40% 600000 30% 400000 20% 200000 10% 0 Matric 2008 (Gr Matric 2009 (Gr Matric 2010 (Gr Matric 2011 (Gr 10 2006) 10 2007) 10 2008) 10 2009) 0% 48 Proportion of matrics (%) Foundation Phase

See Taylor (2012) Matric 1200000 400000 200000 grade 10 08 20 09 20 10 See Taylor (2012) Matric 1200000 400000 200000 grade 10 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 20 99 20 97 19 96 19 95 0 19 • Why are more students taking maths literacy? 600000 94 • LARGE differences in the ability of provinces to “convert” grade 1 enrolments into matric passes 800000 19 • Partially due to less repetition at lower grades 1000000 19 • More students making it to grade 10 but not more making it to matric Grade 12 The ratio of grade 2 enrolments ten years prior to matric passes by province See Taylor (2012)

No. e Matric pass rate ndo Media sees only this Qu al rse nts No. e Matric pass rate ndo Media sees only this Qu al rse nts ity? Pre-MATRIC 50% Lo k ea t cul N oe &L f. T eo ur W ion lat u m ti es iv it gn o ly c ar Low Low tim qua l t co ric r u wc pou dro ge a ver Ve ut hp g rou Th S MATRI C What are the root causes of low and unequal achievement? ts ted interes s ct bje u me e oic ch acc oun e-o ity HUGE learning deficits… tab ility n-ta tea sk che rs 50

 • Social policy implications? • Social policy implications?

Questions, conclusions & recommendations Questions, conclusions & recommendations

Conclusions • Speaking of a single education system in SA is a misnomer – Conclusions • Speaking of a single education system in SA is a misnomer – the average South African student does not exist in any meaningful sense. Bimodality is a fact. Low quality education Low social mobility Hereditary poverty • South Africa is not able to convert material advantage into cognitive skills Highly inefficient • While the survey was conducted in 2007, and things may have changed, the outcomes certainly haven’t (see ANA’s, 2011; and (? ) PIRLS/TIMSS 2011) More of the same? Serious blight on the national conscience Persistent patterns of poverty and privilege

When faced with an exceedingly low and unequality of education do we…. A) Increase When faced with an exceedingly low and unequality of education do we…. A) Increase accountability {US model} • Create a fool-proof highly specified, sequenced curriculum (CAPS/workbooks) • Measure learning better and more frequently (ANA) • Increase choice/information in a variety of ways B) Improve the quality of teachers {Finnish model} • Attract better candidates into teaching degrees draw candidates from the top (rather than the bottom) of the matric distribution • Increase the competence of existing teachers (Capacitation) • Long term endeavor which requires sustained, committed, strategic, thoughtful leadership (something we don’t have) C) All of the above {Utopian model} • Perhaps A while we set out on the costly and difficult journey of B? ? 55

Suggestions ü Get the basics right – – – – – Teachers need to Suggestions ü Get the basics right – – – – – Teachers need to be in school teaching Every child (teacher) needs access to adequate learning (teaching) materials Every school should meet basic sanitation and health requirements Every child should receive one year of adequate quality preschool education No child should be hungry at school (for social & cognitive reasons) Continuous diagnostic testing to figure out what children actually know Make sure that the curriculum is tailored to the educational needs of the majority of students, not the top 15% Every student MUST master the basics of foundational numeracy and literacy – these are the building blocks of further education – weak foundations = recipe for disaster SA is a middle income country which spends 20% (!) of all government expenditure on education – this is not rocket science. [ANA’s and workbooks are a very good sign – (but) need consistency and time]