Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows

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Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks Alfredo Bustos (INEGI-Mex) Joint Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks Alfredo Bustos (INEGI-Mex) Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics Geneva, 17 -19 October 2012

Summary • Focus on use of different sources for the study of migration. • Summary • Focus on use of different sources for the study of migration. • Flows – From 2006, quarterly LFS has been used to follow changes in household composition, specially via migration. – Arrivals or departures of dwellers over 3 -months are recorded. – Quarterly birth-, death-and migration-rates produced. • Stocks – For emigrants, look at administrative “paper trail” in destination countries. – Example, NCHS information regarding the mother’s place of birth. – Combine with ACS’ birth-rates and age-sex structures for the Mexico-born population residing in the USA to obtain estimate for that population size. • On-going work that could be used in other regions.

Layout • Flows: ENOE, Mexico’s quarterly labour force survey • Stocks: ACS plus Birth Layout • Flows: ENOE, Mexico’s quarterly labour force survey • Stocks: ACS plus Birth Certificate data

FLOWS: ENOE, MEXICO'S QUARTERLY LABOUR FORCE SURVEY FLOWS: ENOE, MEXICO'S QUARTERLY LABOUR FORCE SURVEY

ENOE One of the longest-running statistical projects in the country. • Main purpose, to ENOE One of the longest-running statistical projects in the country. • Main purpose, to produce national and statelevel quarterly unemployment rates. – Information collected continuously over threemonth periods. – Sample size fixed at 120, 060 dwellings every quarter. – New entries are randomly selected with unequal probabilities from stratified sampling frame.

Rotation pattern • Each quarter, 20% of households leave sample after completing five-interview tour, Rotation pattern • Each quarter, 20% of households leave sample after completing five-interview tour, • replaced by new (semi-)panel with same size, • remains in sample for five consecutive rounds of interviews, one quarter apart. • Hence, 80% quarter-to-quarter sample overlap. • Useful in determining quarterly change patterns in – household composition, – occupational status of individuals, – etc.

Rotation Pattern Common sample in two successive quarters due to ENOE's Rotation Pattern Rotation Pattern Common sample in two successive quarters due to ENOE's Rotation Pattern

Information Collected Information Collected

Monitoring Household Composition Interested in learning about people who: • are no longer part Monitoring Household Composition Interested in learning about people who: • are no longer part of the household because of – death or – emigration, or • join as new members of the household by reason of – birth or – immigration.

New Panel's First Interview In addition to job data, initial roster of individuals in New Panel's First Interview In addition to job data, initial roster of individuals in each household is developed. Recording, among other socio-demographic variables, • place of birth, • age, • sex, • relationship to head of household, • educational characteristics (for human-capital studies), http: //www. inegi. org. mx/est/contenidos/proyectos/encuestas/hogares/regulares/enoe/default. aspx? &_s=est&_c=14731

Subsequent Interviews Information for immigrants includes • Former place of residence (state or country), Subsequent Interviews Information for immigrants includes • Former place of residence (state or country), • socio-demographic characteristics, • reasons for migrating: – – – work or study, marriage or divorce, health reasons, joining the family group, environmental violence, criminal or social.

Subsequent Interviews Information for emigrants includes • Place of destination (state or country), • Subsequent Interviews Information for emigrants includes • Place of destination (state or country), • reasons for migrating – – – work or study, marriage or divorce, health reasons, joining the family group, violence, criminal or social.

Consequences of Rotation Pattern Consequences of Rotation Pattern

Expansion factors Must take into account: • Changes in population size. • Expand to Expansion factors Must take into account: • Changes in population size. • Expand to 80% of population size, at best. • Differential non-response.

Consequences for Immigration • Estimates total number of immigrants received by households over one Consequences for Immigration • Estimates total number of immigrants received by households over one quarter. • In other words, households are considered "at risk" of receiving one or more migrants. – Use expansion factors for households – Immigration shown relative to population size.

Numerical Results Numerical Results

Quarterly Net Migration Rates in Mexico, 2006 -2012. 2006 -II 2006 -IV 2007 -II Quarterly Net Migration Rates in Mexico, 2006 -2012. 2006 -II 2006 -IV 2007 -II 2007 -IV 2008 -II 2008 -IV 2009 -II 2009 -IV 2010 -II 2010 -IV 2011 -II 2011 -IV 2012 -II http: //www. inegi. org. mx/inegi/contenidos/espanol/prensa/Boletines/muestra 3. asp? tema=22&s=inegi&c=279

Year-over-Year Job Growth in Metropolitan Areas, USA, 2001 -2011 (Natural Resources, Mining, Construction) Year-over-Year Year-over-Year Job Growth in Metropolitan Areas, USA, 2001 -2011 (Natural Resources, Mining, Construction) Year-over-Year Job Growth Urban USA 15 10 5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -5 -10 -15 -20 Source: http: //www. pittsburghtoday. org/view_economy_job_growth_years_change. html, Aug. 3 rd, 2011.

Results. • Declining trend in the number of out migrants from 2006 – Burst Results. • Declining trend in the number of out migrants from 2006 – Burst of the housing bubble in the US? • Stable situation for immigration, includes return migrants. • Distinct seasonal pattern exhibited by both out- and in-migrants over the same period – Vanishes toward the end. Multiplicative seasonality?

Age and Sex Structure Age and Sex Structure

Age and Sex Structure of International Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006 -2009. • Low frequency Age and Sex Structure of International Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006 -2009. • Low frequency of inter-state migration difficults production of reliable estimates for greater geographical disaggregation. – Age and sex characteristics of the migrant population, stable. – When records over the 2006 -2009 period are pooled, age-sex structures may be produced. • Recent Mexican emigration is predominantly male and occurs mainly at working ages.

Age and Sex Structure of International Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006 -2011. Age and Sex Structure of International Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006 -2011.

STOCKS: ACS PLUS BIRTH CERTIFICATE DATA STOCKS: ACS PLUS BIRTH CERTIFICATE DATA

 US Census: Stand up and be counted? By Laura Trevelyan BBC News, New US Census: Stand up and be counted? By Laura Trevelyan BBC News, New York 2010 is census year in America - and there is a lot riding on this drive to count everyone in the country. Some $400 bn (£ 251 bn) of federal money is allocated according to the population in each of the 50 states, and so are Congressional seats. “ If you want better services, allow yourself to be counted, I am guaranteeing that nothing bad will happen to you ” Ruben Diaz Jr, Bronx Borough president “ I now how afraid the people are, they are hiding, and they believe the police force is looking for them ” Carlos Soto

Sources • Population Censuses • Population projections • Expansion factors • Surveys • Public Sources • Population Censuses • Population projections • Expansion factors • Surveys • Public data – Births – School attendance – Health – Etc.

Total births in USA, 1990 -2006 4300000 4250000 4200000 4150000 4100000 4050000 4000000 3950000 Total births in USA, 1990 -2006 4300000 4250000 4200000 4150000 4100000 4050000 4000000 3950000 3900000 3850000 3800000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990 -2006 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Births in the USA, 1997 -2006 1997 Total number of births in USA Year-to-year Births in the USA, 1997 -2006 1997 Total number of births in USA Year-to-year differences 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 3, 884, 329 3, 945, 192 3, 963, 465 4, 063, 823 4, 031, 531 4, 027, 376 4, 096, 092 4, 118, 907 4, 145, 619 4, 273, 225 -10, 545 60, 863 18, 273 100, 358 -32, 292 -4, 155 68, 716 22, 815 26, 712 127, 606 Births to Mexico-born women Mothers place of residence: Total 307, 680 315, 906 336, 525 370, 191 396, 147 407, 910 425, 911 440, 723 451, 305 526, 500 Mothers place of residence: México 2, 381 2, 697 2, 950 3, 994 4, 559 4, 813 5, 278 5, 658 5, 921 7, 777 Mothers place of residence: USA 305, 299 313, 209 333, 575 366, 197 391, 588 403, 097 420, 633 435, 065 445, 384 518, 723 Note: 2005 -2006 births to México-born women estimated Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1997 -2006

Births to Mexico-born women 600, 000 500, 000 400, 000 Mothers place of residence: Births to Mexico-born women 600, 000 500, 000 400, 000 Mothers place of residence: Total 300, 000 Mothers place of residence: México 200, 000 Mothers place of residence: USA 100, 000 0 1, 997 1, 998 1, 999 2, 000 2, 001 2, 002 Note: 2005 -2006 values were estimated Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990 -2006 2, 003 2, 004 2, 005 2, 006

Mexico-born fertility in the United States, avge. 2005 -2007 FERTILITY Total Precision Mexicoborn Precision Mexico-born fertility in the United States, avge. 2005 -2007 FERTILITY Total Precision Mexicoborn Precision Women 15 to 50 years(1) 75, 852, 755 +/-14, 666 3, 717, 791 +/-18, 458 Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 4, 171, 764 12 months (1) +/-20, 119 352, 152 +/-6, 247 Ratio 5. 50% 9. 47% Birth Certificates (2)* 4, 273, 225 NA 435, 065 (3) Ratio 5. 63% 11. 70% NA Source (1) Gregg Robinson, Private communication: USBC, 2005 -2007 American Community Survey 3 -Year Estimates, American Community Survey (ACS), Geographic Area: United States, Country of Birth: Mexico (2) Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990 -2006 (3) 2004 value (*) Birth certificate data not corrected for multiple births

Mexico-born fertility in the United States, avge. 2005 -2007 FERTILITY Total Precision Mexicoborn Precision Mexico-born fertility in the United States, avge. 2005 -2007 FERTILITY Total Precision Mexicoborn Precision Women 15 to 50 years(1) 75, 871, 980 NA 3, 763, 363 NA Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 4, 188, 747 12 months (1) NA 357, 860 NA Ratio 5. 52% 9. 51% Birth Certificates (2) 4, 273, 225 NA 435, 065 (3) NA Ratio 5. 63% 11. 56% Source: (1) Data Ferret, USBC, 2005 -2007 American Community Survey 3 -Year Estimates, American Community Survey (ACS), Geographic Area: United States, Country of Birth: Mexico (2) Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990 -2006 (3) 2004 value (*) Birth certificate data not corrected for multiple births

Data deficiencies Necessary assumptions: • Birth data-bases for 2005 -2006 did not include the Data deficiencies Necessary assumptions: • Birth data-bases for 2005 -2006 did not include the mother’s place of birth. – Birth-rates or sex-age structures of the Mexico-born population did not change much over a short period. I used the assumption about birth-rates. – Estimate the 2004 population, not available for ACS in the Data Ferret on-line tool. • Timing is not equal. – Birth rates from question to women about births in past 12 months (from July 1 of survey year). – NCHS births are for a calendar year (January - December). • Numbers refer to same concept – ACS numbers refer to women while NCHS ones to children. Allow for multiple births. • Some Mexican migrants do not respond to the census and/or the ACS, but still bear children. – Are they similar to the rest in this respect? or is there a bias? – There is life after censuses and surveys.

1 st. Rough Preliminary Results (DO NOT QUOTE) Estimated ACS estimated Births to México- 1 st. Rough Preliminary Results (DO NOT QUOTE) Estimated ACS estimated Births to México- Women 15 to 50 México-born years population born women, 15 -50, population living in the 2006 living in the (B)= A 1/A 2 (A) USA, 2004 USA, 2006 (C)=B 1/B 2 1 434, 415 (1) 2 9. 51% (2) 4, 568, 438 (3) 14, 080, 738 (3) 11, 599, 353 (1) 32. 44% (2) 100% Source: (1) Own calculations based on NCHS birth certificate data-bases, 2004 (2) Data Ferret, ACS, 2005 -2007 American Community Survey 3 -Year Estimates (3) Own calculations, as shown. 82. 38% (3)

ACS Fertility Estimated Birth Rates by Age and Total Fertility Rate for Women Born ACS Fertility Estimated Birth Rates by Age and Total Fertility Rate for Women Born in Mexico based on American Community Survey Question on Births in the Previous Year Female population born in Mexico Age Birth in last year: Yes No Birth rate Total, 15 to 44 Between 15 and 19 Between 20 and 24 Between 25 and 29 Between 30 and 34 Between 35 and 39 Between 40 and 44 Total Fertility Rate 3, 282, 345 289, 828 460, 121 630, 694 701, 257 667, 416 533, 029 Source: ACS 2005 -2007 Public Use file ACS question 19: "Have you given birth to any children in the past 12 months" 354, 779 2, 927, 566 23, 992 81, 975 104, 561 84, 147 46, 677 13, 427 265, 836 378, 146 526, 133 617, 110 620, 739 519, 602 108. 1 82. 8 178. 2 165. 8 120. 0 69. 9 25. 2 3209. 2

Births to Mexico-born women, 2006 Total Age group Births (2004) NCHS (1) Birth-rates (2006) Births to Mexico-born women, 2006 Total Age group Births (2004) NCHS (1) Birth-rates (2006) ACS (2) Mexicoborn women by age group (2004) (3)=(1)/(2) 15 -50 434, 415 9. 51% 4, 568, 438 by age group 15 -19 50, 461 8. 28% 609, 579 20 -24 25 -29 122, 682 124, 534 17. 82% 688, 607 16. 58% 751, 168 30 -34 88, 889 12. 00% 740, 775 35 -39 39, 412 40 -44 8, 084 6. 99% 2. 52% 563, 537 320, 921 Source: (1) Own calculations based on NCHS birth certificate data-bases, 2004 (2) Data Ferret, ACS, 2005 -2007 American Community Survey 3 -Year Estimates (3) Own calculations, as shown. 45 -50 353 NEW FIGURE 0. 64% FOR TOTAL, 15 -50 55, 112 3, 729, 698

2 nd. Rough Preliminary Results (DO NOT QUOTE) Estimated ACS estimated México-born Births to 2 nd. Rough Preliminary Results (DO NOT QUOTE) Estimated ACS estimated México-born Births to México-born women, 15 -50, Women 15 to 50 population living in the 2006 years living in the (A) USA, 2004 USA, 2006 (C)=B 1/B 2 1 434, 415 (1) 3, 729, 698 (3) 2 9. 51% (2) 32. 44% (2) 11, 495, 592(3) 11, 599, 353 (1) 100% Source: (1) Own calculations based on NCHS birth certificate data-bases, 2004 (2) Data Ferret, ACS, 2005 -2007 American Community Survey 3 -Year Estimates (3) Own calculations, as shown. 100. 90% (3)

Net International Migration for Mexico 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -50, 000 Net International Migration for Mexico 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -50, 000 -100, 000 -150, 000 -200, 000 -250, 000 -300, 000 -350, 000 -400, 000 -450, 000 -500, 000 ACS + ENOE 2007 2008 2009 2010

Closing • Use of LFS and of administrative records in study of Mexico international Closing • Use of LFS and of administrative records in study of Mexico international migration discussed. • Rotation factor of Mexican LFS useful in determining changes in household composition, specifically by way of migration. • Use of birth data suggested in the study of migration if migration records unavailable (i. e. , undocumented migration or integration process as in Europe). • Use of other administrative data worth looking into. • The proposal put forward may be of interest to countries in the region in view of the availability of adequate administrative records.




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