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  • Количество слайдов: 24

Prof Jan Van Dijk Household Security and European Trends in Burglary Copenhagen, March 20, Prof Jan Van Dijk Household Security and European Trends in Burglary Copenhagen, March 20, 2013

“An open door may tempt a saint” “An open door may tempt a saint”

Burglary victimization rate, ICVS 2005 3 Burglary victimization rate, ICVS 2005 3

Trends in rates of victimization by burglary in five european countries (national surveys) 4 Trends in rates of victimization by burglary in five european countries (national surveys) 4

The Danish exception Over the past ten years household burglaries have been decreasing across The Danish exception Over the past ten years household burglaries have been decreasing across the Western world according to police records and surveys But not in Denmark ! The Danish rate of police-recorded burglaries of 1. 939 per 100. 000 in 2009 is the highest rate ever recorded by UNODC anywhere in the world

The crime boom and bust cycle Van Dijk (2008)’ 6 The crime boom and bust cycle Van Dijk (2008)’ 6

Diagnosing the Danish exception Most Western countries have by 2005 come full circle: greater Diagnosing the Danish exception Most Western countries have by 2005 come full circle: greater opportunities led to higher burglary rates, led to more fear of burglary, led to improved security, led to reduced opportunities, led to lower burglary rates (led to reduced fear……. . ). Hypothesis: In Denmark the spontaneous feedback loop of improved security has been relatively slow 7

% of public thinking a burglary in their house in the coming year is % of public thinking a burglary in their house in the coming year is likely 8

Risk assessment of the public and actual victimization rates in 2004 9 Risk assessment of the public and actual victimization rates in 2004 9

Not a Care in the World Considering the actual burglary risks in Denmark, concern Not a Care in the World Considering the actual burglary risks in Denmark, concern about burglary should have been two times more common than it is. Lack of concern prevents Danish households from investing in their security? 10

% households with security locks 11 % households with security locks 11

LEVELS OF HOME SECURITY IN EIGHT WESTERN NATIONS in 2004 High-grade door locks, Burglar LEVELS OF HOME SECURITY IN EIGHT WESTERN NATIONS in 2004 High-grade door locks, Burglar alarm, 2004 (%) England Wales 60 41 Netherlands Canada Germany Sweden Estonia Switzerland Denmark 78 15 48 28 63 14 46 16 40 7 29 5 32 9 15 March 2018 12

Rates of home security in 2004 and burglary victimization trends between 2004 and 2010 Rates of home security in 2004 and burglary victimization trends between 2004 and 2010 in eight countries High-grade door locks, 2004 (%) Burglar alarm, 2004 (%) Burglary rate, 2010 (%) Change burglary rate (%-point) England Wales 60 41 3. 5 1. 5 - 2. 0 Netherlands 78 15 1. 3 0. 8 - 0. 5 Canada 48 28 2, 0 1. 3 - 0. 7 Germany 63 14 0. 9 1. 2 +0. 3 Sweden 46 16 0. 7 1. 0 +0. 3 Estonia 40 7 2. 5 3. 0 +0. 5 Switzerland 29 5 1. 1 1. 9 +0. 8 Denmark 32 9 2. 7 3. 6 +0. 9 15 March 2018 13

Levels of household security in 2004 (high grade locks and alarms) and changes in Levels of household security in 2004 (high grade locks and alarms) and changes in burglary rates between 2004 and 2010 15 March 2018 14

The crime and security loops 15 March 2018 15 The crime and security loops 15 March 2018 15

Trends in the use of burglar alarms and trends in burglary vicimization since 1992 Trends in the use of burglar alarms and trends in burglary vicimization since 1992 by income quartiles in twelve Western nations (ICVS 19892005) percentages secured 15 March 2018 percentages victimised 16

Policy interventions Why are Dutch houses the best secured in Europe ? Regulatory securitization: Policy interventions Why are Dutch houses the best secured in Europe ? Regulatory securitization: 1. Security certification since 1990 promoted by police (Politie Keurmerk) 2. Mandatory security standards incorporated in national Building Code in 1999 17

Security certification of housing situation At the initiative of the police both existing and Security certification of housing situation At the initiative of the police both existing and newly built houses can be certified, looking at: • Urban environment (recreational facilities, routing) • Immediate environment (lightening) • Building (preferably not more than 5 levels, surveillance) • Dwelling (security locks, fire alarms) 18

Effectiveness • More than 500. 000 housing units have been certified (50. 000 per Effectiveness • More than 500. 000 housing units have been certified (50. 000 per year) • Burglary risk per unit was reduced by 90% Source: De Effectiviteit van het PKVW, DSP Group, 2004 • Reduced fear of burglary • Reduced insurance premiums 19

 • Change in building regulations in the Netherlands in 1999 • All new-built • Change in building regulations in the Netherlands in 1999 • All new-built homes must have burglary-proof windows and doors, regardless of their vulnerability 20

Homes meeting new regulations (%) Natural experiment in regulation of built-in security Transition period Homes meeting new regulations (%) Natural experiment in regulation of built-in security Transition period 100 75 50 Homes built under old Building Code Homes built under new Building Code 25 0 1995 COMPARE 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year of construction of the home 2004 2005

The impact of mandatory security on domestic burglary in NL; source: Vollaard & Van The impact of mandatory security on domestic burglary in NL; source: Vollaard & Van Ours, 2010 15 March 2018 22

Benefits outweigh costs • Benefits over lifespan of home: € 560 p/h (less losses Benefits outweigh costs • Benefits over lifespan of home: € 560 p/h (less losses , less expenses for police etcetera) • Costs of measures+ enforcement: € 430 p/h • Benefits far exceed the costs • A country which introduces mandatory security standards increases its welfare • Such country will also reduce widening security gap between income groups 23

A lesson for Denmark? • Security feedback loop in Denmark is falling behind • A lesson for Denmark? • Security feedback loop in Denmark is falling behind • Certification and national regulation of household security is indicated • It would be even more cost effective than in NL because of higher burglary rates 24