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Plans for Plans for "Sochi-2014” Olympic and Paralimpic Games (February 8 -23 and March 7 -16, 2014) Dmitry Kiktev, [email protected] ru Hydrometcentre of Russia, Roshydromet WWRP WGNR, 10 Feb 2011 Geneva, Switzerland

PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Sport venues; • Observational network; • Forecasting technologies; • Project vision PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Sport venues; • Observational network; • Forecasting technologies; • Project vision and kick-off meeting

Two clusters of «Sochi-2014» Olympic venues Snow sports competitions Ice sports competitions Two clusters of «Sochi-2014» Olympic venues Snow sports competitions Ice sports competitions

The range of altitudes for various sport events is broad: • Alpine skiing tracks The range of altitudes for various sport events is broad: • Alpine skiing tracks 960 -1945 m - topmost

Temperature in February/ March at the mountain cluster : Т min ‹ 0º - Temperature in February/ March at the mountain cluster : Т min ‹ 0º - any altitude, Т daily average ‹ 0º - altitude over 700 m, Т mах. ‹ 0º - altitude over 1600 m Weather contrasts: two photos taken on March 2– 3, 2009 at the coastal and mountain clusters Month January February March Estimated temperature characteristics at 1500 -1800 m heights Average Absolute Monthly Mean Min Mean Max minimum maximum -5, 6 -8, 1 -1, 3 -27 0 -5, 6 -8, 2 -1, 1 -26 +12 -2, 6 -5, 7 +1, 9 -24 +19

Microclimate of «Sochi-2014» sport venues 400 350 Precipitation (mm) 300 250 200 Achishkho station Microclimate of «Sochi-2014» sport venues 400 350 Precipitation (mm) 300 250 200 Achishkho station Krasnaya Polyana 150 Sochi 100 50 0 I II IV V VI VII Months VIII IX X XI XII

Primary meteorological needs for Sochi-2014: § § § § Enhanced observational network; Nowcasting tools; Primary meteorological needs for Sochi-2014: § § § § Enhanced observational network; Nowcasting tools; High-resolution NWP models and EPS; Regional data assimilation; Means of NWP output interpretation and delivery (new parameters and products, visualization etc); High-resolution verification system; Training 7

Observational network in the region of the Games None of practically realizable near-surface atmospheric Observational network in the region of the Games None of practically realizable near-surface atmospheric monitoring networks can be representative enough given the complexity of the region and high Olympic demands. In situ observations are mostly concentrated along the coast. Vast sea area from one side and nearby high mountains (up to 3 km and more) on another side of Krasnaya Polyana are data sparse areas. Nevertheless, today situation is substantially better than 1 -2 years ago, and enhancement of the network will continue. + In general about 30 near-surface automatic stations to be added to enhance the observational network in the region. + New Doppler radars in Sochi and other parts of the region; + Other ways to enhance the observational network are looked into (wind and temperature profilers; moored sea buoys; more frequent sounding at the nearest aerological stations; etc)

Supplementary network of AMS on the towers of mobile communication should be developed in Supplementary network of AMS on the towers of mobile communication should be developed in the region in cooperation with private companies Data processor Precipitation gauge AMS should be accompanied by rotatable web-cameras. Wind sensor Temperature and humidity sensors

Development of comprehensive set of observational data for purposes of forecasting, data assimilation and Development of comprehensive set of observational data for purposes of forecasting, data assimilation and forecast validation is one of the key elements of meteorological support of the Games Mountain cluster of sport venues Doppler radar Roshydromet plans to provide access to the enhanced set of regional weather observations for the partners involved in the meteorological support of the Games. Coastal cluster of sport venues Filled circles – locations of AMS. 50 km

From the point of view of meteorological needs and goals Sochi-2014 Olympic project has From the point of view of meteorological needs and goals Sochi-2014 Olympic project has much in common with Canadian Vancouver 2010 Olympic project SNOW -V 10. «Sochi-2014» region «Vancouver-2010» region In comparison with Whistler the mountain cluster in Krasnaya Polyana is situated substantially closer to the sea and there is less space for deployment of upstream landbased observational network.

Existing radar facilities in the region Today 3 radars МРЛ-5 work in the region Existing radar facilities in the region Today 3 radars МРЛ-5 work in the region – Anapa, Sochi (Adler) and Krasnodar. Unfortunately, their technical state, locations and capabilities of digital data processing system don’t meet the requirements of the meteorological support of the Olympics. Cardinal modernization of the radar network in the region is needed. Integral reflectivity for meteorological radars МРЛ-5 in Anapa, Adler and Krasnodar for the layer 1 -2 km (February 2010)

Radar network modernization In September 2008 Russian government approved the Federal task program Radar network modernization In September 2008 Russian government approved the Federal task program "Modernization of the unified system of air traffic organization of the Russian Federation (2009 -2015)". According to the program about 140 new-generation Russian-made Doppler radars should be installed in various parts of the country, including Sochi region, and replace МРЛ-5 radars. In 2011 МРЛ-5 radars should be replaced by new Dopplers in the airports of Anapa, Krasnodar and Adler. In 2012 new radar should be installed in the area of Gelendjik airport. Dual pol C-band Doppler with signal compression

Positions of radars in the region of Sochi Krasnaya Poliana Positions of radars in the region of Sochi Krasnaya Poliana

Doppler radar in Sochi: state of affairs At the end of 2010 there were Doppler radar in Sochi: state of affairs At the end of 2010 there were field tests of the new radar equipment developed and produced in the framework of the Federal task program "Modernization of the unified system of air traffic organization of the Russian Federation (2009 -2015)". Although the test results are quite good, in general this process has been evolving with delays. To not put the preparations to the Olympics under the threat of delays it was decided at least for Sochi to buy a radar of external vendor. Vaisala Doppler radar WRM 200 was bought in December 2010. This new radar will be installed on Akhun mountain in Sochi. The data flow from the radar is expected to be organized by the winter 2011/2012.

Radar position on Akhun mountain Location: 43 о 32’ 52, 6 ״ N, 39 Radar position on Akhun mountain Location: 43 о 32’ 52, 6 ״ N, 39 о 51 ״ 0, 50׳ E, Altitude – 646 m. From the point of view of coverage this position is the best in the region of Sochi. Installation of radar antenna on a 30 -meters tower will allow to get rid of shading by the trees. There are no obstacles in the western and southern sectors. In eastern and north-eastern directions horizon shading will not exceed 1 -2 degrees in vertical. Mountain cluster objects Thin lines designate 500 m topography level; Bold brown lines – 1000 m topography level. Akhun mountain Adler airport

Profilers Wind - AP 1000 Radar Wind Profiler (Scintec Corporation, U. S. A. ); Profilers Wind - AP 1000 Radar Wind Profiler (Scintec Corporation, U. S. A. ); Temperature/Humidity – to be decided (negotiations with RPG Gm. Bh, Germany) Roshydromet plans to station the profilers on mobile platform. Some flexibility in location of profilers (e. g. their location up-stream of the venue) might enhance their forecasting capabilities.

Nowcasting tools for Sochi Current experience of nowcasting in Russia is very limited and Nowcasting tools for Sochi Current experience of nowcasting in Russia is very limited and associated with plain areas (as in general observational coverage is quite modest). Mountain nowcasting is a brand-new area for Roshydromet (High requirements for the weak point of the Service). By now Roshydromet does not have firmly established nowcasting graphical tools. Existing technologies are not comprehensive and mature enough to meet the Olympic demands. Options: GIS-Meteo, AWIPS, Ninjo, … ?

Numerical weather prediction • Complexity of Sochi region stimulates application of highresolution modeling. By Numerical weather prediction • Complexity of Sochi region stimulates application of highresolution modeling. By 2014 horizontal grid step about 1 km seems to be a realistic level of model resolution. • Key areas to be addressed: data assimilation, predictability and uncertainty, physics at high resolution, validation of high resolution modeling, numerical challenges at high resolution, utility of model configurations that have potential in nowcasting. • High-resolution data assimilation is a necessary prerequisite for meso-scale forecasting. The remote sounding is the main source of meso-scale structures in the initial data for such a modeling. Potential input for assimilation: Satellite radiances (AMSU-A, AMSU-B, AVHRR, IASI, SSMIS); Satellite winds (AMV, ASCAT); Doppler radars; Wind and temperature/humidity profilers • Convective-scale multi-model ensemble forecasting might be a new experience of Sochi-2014

In 2007 Roshydromet joined For the period up to 2014 the COSMO goal is In 2007 Roshydromet joined For the period up to 2014 the COSMO goal is to develop a modelsystem for the short to very short range with a convective-scale resolution to be used for operational forecasting of mesoscale weather, especially high impact weather. The strategic elements to achieve this goal are: – an ensemble prediction system for the convective scale (development of a conserving dynamical core; progression towards a unified turbulence-shallow convection scheme etc); – an ensemble-based data assimilation system for the convective scale (LETKF); – extension of the environmental prediction capabilities of the model; – a verification and validation tool for the convective scale; – an intermediate resolution COSMO version for the provision of boundary conditions; – use of massively parallel computer platforms; – intensified collaboration within and beyond COSMO.

FORECAST SYSTEM COSMO-RU 2 x =2. 2 km COSMO-RU: 420*470 * 50 grid nodes FORECAST SYSTEM COSMO-RU 2 x =2. 2 km COSMO-RU: 420*470 * 50 grid nodes Grid step: 2. 2 km Time step: 15 sec Forecast range: 24 hours COSMO-RU 7 x = 7 km COSMO-RU: 700 *620 * 40 grid nodes Grid step : 7 km Time step : 40 sec Forecast range: 78 hours GME x = 30 km; 2011 x = 20 km GME: 368 642 * 60 grid nodes Grid step : 30 km Time step : 110 sec Forecast range: 7 days

COSMO-RU 02 Horizontal resolution – 2. 2 km Top right: T 2 m + COSMO-RU 02 Horizontal resolution – 2. 2 km Top right: T 2 m + MSLP; Left: Precipitation (green), MSLP, Mid-layer cloudiness (blue)

COSMO contributions to Sochi project • • • A COSMO-LEPS (7 -km grid spacing) COSMO contributions to Sochi project • • • A COSMO-LEPS (7 -km grid spacing) centered around Sochi for a dynamical downscaling of the ECMWF EPS with a forecast range of up to 5 days. The idea is to run the COSMO-LEPSSochi for a test period during winter 2012/2013 and in production mode during winter 2013/2014. Deterministic, high resolution COSMO model (2. 2 km grid spacing; forecast range up to 24 hours; rapid update cycle) nested into the 7 -km COSMO-RU model in Moscow. The model runs should include data assimilation using all available data, including the Doppler radar in Sochi. Extensive work on development of convection-permitting model version is on the way (Some COSMO members already have a substantial experience at convection-permitting resolutions).

WRF ARW configurations for Sochi region Grid step 3 km Grid Domain 39 о WRF ARW configurations for Sochi region Grid step 3 km Grid Domain 39 о – 48 о. N, 34 о– 46 о E : 330*31 nodes 1 km 42 о – 45 о. N, 37 о– 42 о. E : 330*31 nodes 0. 3 km 43, 3 о– 43, 9 о. N, 39, 7 о– 40, 4 о. E : 200*31 nodes Forecast range: 36 hrs. Resources: 225 CPUs , SGI ALTIX-4700. Clock time: 1 km - 2. 5 hr, 0. 3 km - 1. 6 hr. Calculated two times per 24 hr. NCEP GFS is used as a driver. Radiation: RRTMG (k-distributed method). Land surface: Noah. Boundary layer: Mellor-Yamada-Janjic. Microphysics: Thompson (to be replaced by Milbrandt and Yau – two-moment scheme). Convection resolved directly.

Global forecasting technology of the Hydrometcentre of Russia • Semi-Lagrangian vorticity-divergence dynamical core of Global forecasting technology of the Hydrometcentre of Russia • Semi-Lagrangian vorticity-divergence dynamical core of own development • ALADIN/LACE parameterizations with some own add-ons • Currently, 0. 9ºx 0. 72º lon/lat, 28 levels, runs on Altix 4700 • Version with the resolution 0. 45ºx 0. 37º, 50 levels, ALARO microphysics under testing • Mass-conservative semi-Lagrangian advection, reduced lat-lon grid (probably, 2012) • Version with the resolution 0. 22ºx 0. 18º, 60 levels expected in 2013 • Forecasts are available at http: //meteoinfo. ru/plav-forc-rus • Output to be adjusted to TIGGE demands • 3 D-Var scheme of own development. Hybrid ensemble scheme on the basis of existed 3 D-Var to be developed (2012 -2014)

Roshydromet is very interested in the international collaboration in order to improve its forecasts Roshydromet is very interested in the international collaboration in order to improve its forecasts of winter weather in mountainous terrain Meteorological support of the Games implies both research and practical forecasting. Potentially both types of WWRP projects (Research Development Project and Forecast Demonstration Project), could be relevant.

Potential content of “Sochi-2014” project General goal: To enhance and demonstrate capabilities of modern Potential content of “Sochi-2014” project General goal: To enhance and demonstrate capabilities of modern systems of short-range (up to 1 -2 days) NWP and nowcasting in winter conditions for mountain terrain and to assess effect of practical use of this information. Subgoals – to develop and implement: • Nowcasting of multi-weather elements (wind speed and wind gust, visibility, precipitation intensity and time) in a region with complex terrain in winter season. New nowcasting products for high impact winter weather events; • High resolution modeling for a region with mountain terrain in winter season; • High resolution ensemble forecasting of high-impact winter weather events in a region with complex terrain; • High resolution remote sensing data assimilation; • High-resolution forecast/nowcast verification using remote sensing data.

Kick-off meeting of potential participants, 1 -3/3/2011 Who plan to attend ? : • Kick-off meeting of potential participants, 1 -3/3/2011 Who plan to attend ? : • • • CMA; COSMO; Environment Canada; Helsinki University; NCAR; NOAA; TIGGE-LAM; Vailsala; ZAMG; WMO Secretariat and WWRP WGs on Nowcasting, Mesoscale Forecasting, Verification Research

Thank you! http: //kraspol. ru Thank you! http: //kraspol. ru

Radar position in the area of Adler airport Currently: 43027 ״ 60’׳ N, 39056 Radar position in the area of Adler airport Currently: 43027 ״ 60’׳ N, 39056 ״ 70׳ E, Altitude above sea level – 104 m (at the mountain above Adler airport). Current position has very broad shaded sectors even in the seaward directions. Installation of radar antenna on a 30 -meters tower (~20 m higher than today) will allow to get rid of shading due to trees, but will not substantially improve situation in the sector from 325 о to 95 о (in the direction to mountain cluster). Vertical angle Shading diagram for Adler radar Azimuth

Radar position in the area of Anapa airport Today МРЛ-5 radar is located on Radar position in the area of Anapa airport Today МРЛ-5 radar is located on the territory of the airport at altitude 60 m. It would be optimal for better coverage to move it 3 km eastward to the nearby hill of 170 m height (see photo below). However, it is difficult to legalize that position. As a result the exact location should be selected on the territory of airport. It is planned to use 30 -meters tower for the radar antenna. This will ensure good westward visibility and better than today visibility in North. West and Southern sectors.

Radar position in Krasnodar airport Today МРЛ-5 radar is placed at 9 m height Radar position in Krasnodar airport Today МРЛ-5 radar is placed at 9 m height and visibility sector is shaded by the trees and buildings. In general current position has quite poor visibility coverage. Nevertheless, it provides useful information from the area to the north of main mountain ridges. Lifting the radar to the tower can substantially reduce shaded sectors, but firstly it is necessary to get approval from airport management. Vertical angle Shading diagram for Krasnodar radar Blue curve – current skyline; Red curve – potentially possible skyline. Azimuth

Radar position in the area of Gelendjik airport To be installed in 2012. Along Radar position in the area of Gelendjik airport To be installed in 2012. Along with new radar on Akhun mountain (Sochi) it can become the second key radar in the region. Location on the top of mountain Ploskaya (44037’ 31, 8 ״ N, 38003 ״ 0, 94׳ E) at 762 m altitude will ensure high-quality data not only from the Black sea, but from the northern sector. It can be combined with information from Krasnodar radar.