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Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Water and Environmental Management Dr. Mohamed Asheesh WEM Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Water and Environmental Management Dr. Mohamed Asheesh WEM 2014

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Starting point: Factors that drive global changes When Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Starting point: Factors that drive global changes When considering the major driving forces that determine the development of the mankind and its environment, we have to fix first the time scale that we want to study. To put the analysis in the framework of sustainable development, the most appropriate scale would be one generation backward and ahead. This scale is typically used in global assessments. In this frame, I would include the following issues as major driving forces: ·Population growth, ·Urbanization and other patterns of migration, ·Changes in climate, environment, and nature, ·Economy, and ·Human capital, technology, and industrialization. Clearly, these issues are under certain level of control by the societies. Crucial questions to development are : ·How much these factors are controllable? ·How they can be controlled?

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Today almost one billion people live in industrialized Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Today almost one billion people live in industrialized countries, most of them in urban areas (Fig. 1). Population growth in these countries has been slow during the last few decades whereas economic growth has been fast. Most of the world's population, almost 5 billion people, live in developing countries where population growth is fast—almost 2 billion people over 25 years (66%)—and economic potential is very restricted. Population, developed countries (billion) Population, developing countries (billion) Urban Rural Figure 1. The global disparities in population and economy (Data: World Bank 1997). GNP, developed countries (1012 US$ per year) GNP, developing countries (1012 US$ per year)

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Population growth is expected to take place almost Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Population growth is expected to take place almost exclusively in developing countries (Fig. 2). Around the year 2000 the boundary of 6 billion people on earth will be passed and in 20 years the population will be almost 8 billions. Economic inequality is predicted to increase. Urbanization will be rapid; today the share of the rural population of world total is about ½ and is predicted to decrease to about 1/3 by the year 2025 (United Nations 1994). In very simple terms, the major demographic change will be the extensive growth of cities in developing countries, particularly in Asia and Africa. Other chnages are expected to be much smaller. Within one generation, a rural person will have to feed two city dwellers instead of one. Agriculture accounts for already now 2/3 of all water withdrawals. Water will increasingly become a source of conflicts between rural and urban areas, as well as in the international scene. Figure 2. Population grows mainly in developing countries. Around 50% of humans live now in urban areas. In 2025, there as many urban dwellers as the total population is at the moment. Urban population will double, rural population will grow only marginally (United Nations 1994). Urbanization will be fastest in Asia and Africa.

Olli The main features of the Nile River. Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources • Olli The main features of the Nile River. Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources • The Nile River Basin extends over more than 3. 0 million Km 2 • One tenth of Africa's land mass and encompasses territory of ten countries, Burundi, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Congo. • More than 81500 km 2 of the basin are lakes and about 70000 km 2 are swamps. • The total length of the river and its tributaries are about to 37500 km.

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources • More than 250 million inhabitants are living Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources • More than 250 million inhabitants are living in the basin. • Among the Nile riparians are the poorest ones with a very low income. • The average GNP in 1994 is varying between 100 -640 US $. • The population of the countries of the basin is expected to increase rapidly due to high rate of population growth.

Nile Basin Challenges Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources • A significant feature of Nile Basin Challenges Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources • A significant feature of the Nile River is its transboundary nature. • The Basin is shared among 10 riparian states; only one river basin - the Danube - is shared by more countries (13). • This transboundary character of the Nile presents a great challenge: • the imperative of achieving truly sustainable management of a river system whose development potential has created different aspirations and expectations among so many different peoples living both within and beyond the Basin. • At the heart of such a challenge is the imperative of poverty eradication. The sustainable development of the River Nile can help alleviate poverty by providing enhanced food, power, and water security and associated employment creation. This challenge grows with ever increasing populations, urbanization, and industrialization. • Most of the countries located in arid and semi-arid regions are facing a water crisis, though the intensity and extent of that crisis may vary from one country to another, and also with time. For the crisis, brought to the basin serious and severe problems and consequences. Competing demands for water may exist among basin countries, and among different sectors within each basin country. Complicated hydrology of the Nile Basin with the overlapping of natural resources planners. • Water resources planners and managers have recognized and effective water management in the basin. Nevertheless, there are many concerns for equitable and reasonable sharing for the river waters, also the concern appreciable harm for other riparian countries.

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Climatic changes and variations do not make this Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Climatic changes and variations do not make this task easier, at least what comes to forecasts and teir quality. In many contexts (e. g. , IPCC 1996), the forecasting of the climate and weather patterns of the tropical zone is extremely difficult, even without any climatic changes. Global circulation models, that are used as the starting point of scenario analyses in climatic change research, are very imprecise in the tropical zone. However, the countries within that zone are most vulnerable to changes in water resources, given the five driving factors that were listed above. In the critical regions presented in Figure 3, live 60% of world’s population, and 80% of all rural dwellers. A more detailed scrutiny is presented elsewhere (Varis 1997, Vakkilainen ja Varis 1997, 1998). But I summarize some main points here. These regions coincide rather well with the tropical zone, which is totally dependent on monsoon rains, and is densely populated. Their share of undernourished children and people in absolute poverty is dominating in the global level. One generation ago, their proportion of global GNP was 11%, but now it has gone down to 7%. Their CO 2 emissions have, however, increased from 8% to 20%. These trends are alarming (Varis 1998 b). According to IFPRI (1997) these regions will be forced to increase their food import drastically during the 2 decades to come. Figure 3. The most critical regions with respect to global changes (Varis 1997, Vakkilainen ja Varis 1997, 1998) and the tropical zone (Varis 1998 b).

World water scarcity Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources water scarcity 76 -100% 1 World water scarcity Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources water scarcity 76 -100% 1 -25% World water/Tieteen kuva lehti nro 2/2001

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources The following questions summarize the starting point of Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources The following questions summarize the starting point of this project: ·How each one of these changes will take place in different parts of the globe? ·Will economy grow faster than population? ·Will human, technological, and industrial development make the world better or worse? ·Will cities be dynamos of wealth and prosperity, or will they be sinks for poor people without no hope? Certainly both, but in which proportion? ·Will climatic factors constitute ever increasing risks and uncertainties to the development of societies and nature? These questions are tough. Selected examples of the enormous insecurities we are facing are revealed in Figure 4; the various water and food availability projections differ drastically from one another, and so do the climate change projections. (b) (a) Figure 4. Examples on global projections and their mismatches. (a) grain production (b) water withdrawals (SEI 1997). References and detailed analysis are presented by Vakkilainen and Varis (1997, 1998).

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources (c) Figure 4. Examples on global projections and Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources (c) Figure 4. Examples on global projections and their mismatches. (c) Climatic change: The ability of Global Circulation Models— which are widely used in climate change studies and scenarios —to reproduce the present situation is questionable (left columns). Can we rely on their future predictions? (Data from IPCC 1996, detailed analysis: Varis 1998 b).

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Factors that drive global changes: summary It will Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Factors that drive global changes: summary It will be more and more difficult and demanding to meet the growing demand from deteriorating supply of water. Decisions and attitudes concerning solutions on capacity such as human development, institutional set-up, water constructions and other technological issues, given the economic and social constraints constitute a challenging entity with no simple answers. The water issue is not only irrigation, hydropower, water supply, sanitation, but all these and much more. Besides science and engineering, it largely is a political, social and economic entity. The water sector has traditionally been split into narrow, competing branches, but last 10 years have shown a rising concern of interdisciplinary, holistic, and integrated water management. The challenge to water professionals is the enormous growth in the complexity of problem solving, given these new requirements. The quest for holistic and integrated views decorate each possible agenda, but the fact is that science--both from the side of funding agencies and scientists--are evolving towards more arrogant and narrow disciplines and sub-disciplines, who, being self-contained, do not communicate sufficiently with one another. This is sad, because the challenges in real life evolve just to the opposite direction.

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources The response: Global assessments on water scarcity and Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources The response: Global assessments on water scarcity and vulnerability When talking about water scarcity and vulnerability, the available and accessible water resources are related with water demands. Mexico has 3, 900 m 3 of water resources per capita on an annual basis. The total water withdrawals amount to 22% of that, which is almost 80 km 3 86% of that goes to agriculture. Mexico’s population is approaching 100 millions. Egypt has now 60 million people, and it consumes 56. 4 km 3. These, and some other water scarce and crowded areas are compared in Table 1. These areas are also in many ways short of capacity to manage their water resources in a sustainable way. This capacity is a complicated product of institutional set-up, economy, finance, technology, culture, equality, and above all, education. For more discussion, see Varis (1998 c). Table 1. Water resources and their use in selected water scarce regions, which account for ¼ of the world’s population (data: World Bank 1997).

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources When difficulties in meeting the water demand are Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources When difficulties in meeting the water demand are estimated, the rating can be based on the relation of water consumption to annual runoff (Falkenmark and Lindh 1976, 1993, SEI 1997). If water demand is less than 5% of the total runoff, it can be met without problems. Finland belongs to this category; around 1. 9% is withdrawn. When water demand is near 10% the risk caused by temporary disturbances increases and the meeting water requirement demands careful planning of water resources. In Hungary, the level is 5. 7% and in Denmark it is 9. 2%. If water demand is 10% to 20%, the situation becomes problematic and large investment is the only possible solution (Australia 15%, Japan 17%, India 18%). At between 20% and 40% the situation requires massive investment and a large part of GNP has to be sacrificed for water management in developing countries in particular (Mexico 22%, Bangladesh: 23%, Algeria 30%, Iran 39%). A water demand above 40% is a serious water shortage that usually has to be met by desalination and using groundwater to the extent of groundwater depletion (Iraq 42%, Uzbekistan 76%, Egypt 97%). In several countries, water is withdrawn in amounts that exceed the natural recharege of rivers and aquifers (Saudi Arabia 164%, Libya 766%). According to Falkenmark and Lindh (1993) 1, 000 m 3 per annum is a critical water quantity, below this areas will suffer from serious water shortage. It has even been proposed, that human rights should include 500 m 3 of fresh water per annum for each person (Peter Gleick, personal comment at UNESCO in June, 1998). Some examples: Germany 2100 m 3, Belgium 1 200 m 3, Egypt 1 000 m 3, Algeria 530 m 3, Israel 400 m 3 ja Libya 110 m 3. The mainstream global freshwater assessments try to find the critical regions, on a country basis, with respect to water resources and their vulnerability due to various human activities plus the potential changes in climatic conditions. So far, the capacity aspects and social issues are not considered but on a very superficial level.

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources IIASA’s assessment Kulshreshtha (1993) estimated the change in Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources IIASA’s assessment Kulshreshtha (1993) estimated the change in water consumption in major areas until the year 2025 and described a set of scenarios: Effects of food selfsufficiency level, population growth, industrial development, and climatic change. The country-specific results are presented with plots, in which countries can be compared with respect to their population and water availability, and are classified according to their water vulnerability. According to the overall results, only S America, N Europe, Central Africa, SE Asia and Oceania will be below the critical consumption level of 20%. There will be major problems in N Africa and Near East, where water requirement will exceed water supply manifold. In this pioneering work, the data bases used were not as accurate ones as those of today. Therefore, the results should be not considered as quantitative, and should be approached with caution. UNECO/IHP’s assessment Professor Shilomanov’s group from St. Petersburg, Russia, has been conducting global water assessments in co-operation with UNESCO/IHP over a decade. Very well-known are the publications (e. g. Shiklomanov 1993), in which the world is analysed in 26 geographical regions. His estimation has been extrapolated until the year 2050 based on the rates of population growth and water consumption. The underlying weaknesses of that stage of the work are the enormous water consumption estimates, and the fact, that the results are very sensitive to modifications in a few model parameters, which--de facto--are quite impossible to be determined accurately (cf. Vakkilainen and Varis 1998). This study is a part of a comprehensive assessment project: World Water Resources at the Beginning of the 21 st Century, that is carried out as a joint undertaking by UNESCO/IHP and the State Hydrological Institute of St. Petersburg. The work is still in progress, but some pre-results are already available. E. g. , some main results are summarized by Shiklomanov (1998), and those for Central America are summarized by Izmailova and Moiseenkov (1998). Based on these reports, the final, extensive volumes, will be of great value. The analyses are made carefully, and much finer resolution is taken to the problems as in the first stage. SEI’s assessment The assessment of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI 1997) has been prepared jointly with various UN organizations and the government of Sweden. It first describes the availability, quantity, and variability of water resources, and their present use. Then, an analysis on current and future water needs and problems are presented. At the end, strategies and options for sustainable development of global freshwater resources are reported. The analysis on future water demands is based on a set of scenarios. On the supply side, 3 different scenarios are driven. One is based on the assumption that the climate will remain as it has been in the recent decades, and the 2 other ones assume the climate be changed due to human influence. On the demand side, the water withdrawals are projected using 3 scenarios: low, middle, and high. The time frame used is to 2025, and the analysis is made on a country level. The results are presented as a set of vulnerability index values for each country and each scenario. The 5 indices used, and the results of the Middle Conventional Development Scenario are shown in Figure 5. The direction in this work is excellent--towards multidisciplinarity. At this stage, however, it is somewhat obscure how much new input to real-life policy making is provided by these highly aggregated indices, which again, are somewhat ad-hoc in character and sensitive to errors in their determination.

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Figure 5. The 5 water vulnerability indices projected Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Figure 5. The 5 water vulnerability indices projected to 2025 according to SEI (1997). The Middle Conventional Development Scenario results are shown. The used indices are briefly described in the left.

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Comment: We must continue to break borders The Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources Comment: We must continue to break borders The importance of these studies cannot be understated as they bring in light the severity of the global water situation, at least to a greater audience than before. They also allow the execution of geographical comparisons. My own personal feeling is, nevertheless, that there is a plenty of room for development of these assessments, as well as other global assessments, that have enriched our knowledge on the planet’s situation in this decade (for examples, see Figure 4). I argue that these assessments generally suffer from higher inaccuracies and uncertainties than the reports themselves reveal, and do not pay enough attention to the various interconnections within the many factors driving the development. This can simply be seen when comparing assessments with one another. Moreover, there is still much of room for increasing their interdisciplinarity. Such features are mandatory in order to increase their applicability in policy advice and analysis. The importance of global studies is unarguable, but there are still major challenges, which partly are related to approaches and methodologies used. Development theories 1 Malthus and Ricaro 2 Marx 3 Keynes 4 Rostow 5 Vicious circles 6 A big push 7 Structuralist 8 World-systems 9 Basic needs Theories 10 Neo-classical 11 New institutionalism Impacts on water & land 1 Arable land 2 Groundwater 3 Surface water 4 Other ecosystems, loss of biod iversity 5 Material cycles Impacts lity Driving forces to world water availabi 1 Population growth 2 Urbanization 3 Climatic change 4 Macroeconomy 5 Industrialization Driving forces Policy tools: Capacity building & land —Water 1 Water storage capacity 2 Water transfer systems 3 Water supply, sanitation, wastewater treatment 4 Water re-use 5 Intensification of agriculture 6 New land to agriculture Policy tools: Rural-urban patterns & pol icies Policy tools: Capacity building —Socioeconomy 1 Urban primacy Impacts on socioeconomy 1 Population policy 2 Urban poverty alleviation 1 Food and water security 2 Human resources development 3 Urban agriculture, increased urban rec ycling 2 Political stability, resistance against risks 3 Breaking the dual sy stem 4 Urbanizing rural areas 3 Gender development 4 Institutional development 5 Rural development, agricultural transfo rmation 4 Reduction of poverty 5 Outward orientation in economy and society Rural poverty alleviation 6 5 Public health 6 International co mmitments 6 Consumption Figure 6. The variables studied (Varis 1997). We have attempted to take these problems into consideration, when developing approaches that would allow balanced and multidisciplinary, scrutinized analyses of the planet’s burning challenges and problems in water resources and environment. Detailed documentation is given elsewhere (Varis 1997, 1998 a , b, c), but major features are presented also here. The study includes 45 variables (Figure 6), that cover most important development theories, global changes, environmental and social impacts, and policy alternatives. These alternatives have been clustered in 3 groups: factors that cause inbalance and disparity between rural and urban areas, factors that influence the capacity formation for exploiting natural resources, as well as the constituents of social and human capacity.

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources The regions under concern are those defined in Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources The regions under concern are those defined in Figure 3. They are studied as political-economic entities, as well as in a country level. Countries and regions excluded from the major consideration are also included, but merely on comparative basis. The time horizon is from 1970 to present, and from the present to 2025. This horizon gives a framework for the analysis of sustainable development and its policy implications, one generation in retrospect and another one to the future. The methodological approach builds up from the following elements: The vast amount of literature that has emerged mainly in the 1990 s on global issues is under review. Consultation and cooperation with experts in respective regions and issues is used. The databases of numerous multilateral and national organizations are analyzed (e. g. World Bank, FAO, World Resources Institute). The basic structure is given by the variables listed in Figure 6. A computerized technique is used which is based on a network of interconnected probability distributions to analyze the situation in various regions in a more analytical way. The approach is based on a Bayesian expert judgment elicitation scheme (Kuikka and Varis 1997, Varis and Kuikka 1997), which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence. There should be more focus on real interdisciplinarity and integration in global assessments. Water should be considered in closer connection with social, economic, financial, environmental, political, and institutional issues to bring the analyses closer to policy making. Comparative, cross-sectorial works are needed. A methodological challenge to cope with interdisciplinarities and extreme uncertainties and complexities is evident. One attempt in progress is undertaken by us.

Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources References Falkenmark, M. & Lindh, G. 1976. Water Olli Varis, Mohamed Asheesh Water Resources References Falkenmark, M. & Lindh, G. 1976. Water for a Starving World. Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado. Falkenmark, M. & Lindh, G. 1993. Water and economic development. In: Gleick P. H. (Ed. ): Water in Crisis: 80 -91. Oxford University Press, NY. Fredriksen, H. D. 1996. Water crisis in developing countries: Misconceptions about Solutions. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 122: 79 -87. IFPRI 1997. The World Food Situation, Recent Developments, Emerging Issues, and Long Term Prospects. The International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D. C. IPCC 1996. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Izmailova, A. V. & Moiseenkov, A. I. 1998. Water resources and water availability in the countries of Central America and the Caribbean at present and in the future with taking into account possible climate change. In: Lemmelä, R. & Helenius, N. (Ed. ): Proceedings of the 2 nd Conference on Climate and Water, 17— 20 August, 1998, Espoo. Edita, Helsinki. Kuikka, S. & Varis, O. 1997. Uncertainties of climatic change impacts in Finnish watersheds: a Bayesian network analysis of expert knowledge. Boreal Environment Research 2: 109 -128. Kulshreshtha, S. 1993. World Water Resources and Regional Vulnerability: Impacts of Future Changes. RR-93 -10. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. SEI 1997. Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World – Water Futures: Assessment of Long-Range Patterns and Problems. Stockholm Environment Institute. Stockholm. Shiklomanov, I. A. 1993. World fresh water resources. In: Gleick, P. H. (Ed. ): Water in Crisis: 13 -24. Oxford University Press, NY. Shiklomanov, I. A. 1998. Global renewable water resources. In: Zebidi, H. (Ed. ): Water: A Looming Crisis. UNESCO, Paris. UN 1994. World Population 1994. United Nations, New York. Vakkilainen, P. & Varis, O. 1997. Riittääkö ruoka, riittääkö vesi? Teoksessa: 80 vuotta suomalaista salaojitusta. Salaojakeskus & Salaojituksen tukisäätiö, Helsinki. Vakkilainen, P. & Varis, O. 1998. Will water be enough, will food be enough? Technical Report, in print. UNESCO, Paris. Varis, O. 1997. Interconnections on water, food, poverty, and global urbanization: a qualitative analysis on driving forces, impacts, and policy tools. Proceedings. International Conference on Large-Scale Water Management in Developing Countries: CR 35 -CR 42. October 20 -23 Kathmandu, Nepal. Varis, O. 1998 a. Water and Third World cities: the expanding puzzle. Research in Progress RIP 16, United Nations University/World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki. Varis, O. 1998 b. What if the trade winds and monsoons change? In: Lemmelä, R. & Helenius, N. (Ed. ): Proceedings of the 2 nd Conference on Climate and Water, 17— 20 August, 1998, Espoo. Edita, Helsinki. Varis, O. 1998 c. La escasez y vulnerabilidad del agua: México en una perspectiva global. Agua, Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo en México. XX Coloquio de Antropología e Historias Regionales, Zamora, Mich. 21 -23 octubre, Zamora, Mexico. Varis, O. & Kuikka, S. 1997. Be. Ne-EIA: A Bayesian approach to expert judgment elicitation with case studies on climatic change impacts on surface waters. Climatic Change 37: 539 -563. World Bank 1997. World Development Indicators 1997 on CD-ROM. The International Bank for Development and Reconstruction/World Bank, Washington D. C.