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New. Energy Strategist® Michigan Public Service Commission February 28, 2005 Energy Business Solutions New. Energy Strategist® Michigan Public Service Commission February 28, 2005 Energy Business Solutions

Strategist - Integration Has Its Advantages n Strategic Planning with a Single Model Market Strategist - Integration Has Its Advantages n Strategic Planning with a Single Model Market Supply Uncertainty Financial Customer Energy Business Solutions 2 Name and Date

New. Energy Strategist® - Corporate Strategic Planning n Fully Integrated Strategic Analysis n Customers New. Energy Strategist® - Corporate Strategic Planning n Fully Integrated Strategic Analysis n Customers n Producers n Transmission n Financial Performance n Applications n Resource Mix Evaluation and Optimization n Portfolio Risk Management n Supply Contract Bid Analysis n Customer Retention and Profitability n Applications (continued) n Competitive Market Assessment n Regional and International Market Analysis n Co-generation Profitability n Strategic Business Planning n Corporate Restructuring n Merger & Acquisition Analysis n Asset Management n Financial Forecasting n Stranded Investment n Cross Subsidization / Lost Revenue Energy Business Solutions 3 Name and Date

Strategist Modules n Supply and Demand Analysis Modules n Load Forecast Adjustment (LFA) n Strategist Modules n Supply and Demand Analysis Modules n Load Forecast Adjustment (LFA) n Generation and Fuel (GAF) n Differential Cost Effectiveness (DCE) n Financial Analysis Modules n Capital Expenditure and Recovery (CER) n Financial Reporting and Analysis (FIR) n PROVIEW™ Resource Optimization Energy Business Solutions 4 Name and Date

Power Portfolio Components n Owned Generators n Includes thermal, hydro, and pumped storage units Power Portfolio Components n Owned Generators n Includes thermal, hydro, and pumped storage units n Fuel contracts may be modeled with floor, ceiling, take-or-pay, or pipeline limits n Emissions allowance credits may be used to offset the cost of releasing SO 2, NOx, or other effluents n Power Contracts n Includes block energy purchases and sales contracts, call and put options, and fully dispatchable purchases n Contracts may be firm or non-firm n Costs/revenues may be input with energy rates, capacity rates, or both n Demand Controls n Interruptible load with costs, restrictions, and “payback” characteristics n Conservation and marketing programs with costs, market penetration, and hourly load impacts Energy Business Solutions 5 Name and Date

Power Portfolio Analysis n Market Dispatch n Companies (or a single pool) may buy Power Portfolio Analysis n Market Dispatch n Companies (or a single pool) may buy from and sell to spot energy markets n Market interchange is based on load requirements, expected marginal generating costs, and transmission limits, tariffs, and losses n Multi-Company Accounting n A single pool may be dispatched with company interchange based on split savings n Companies may be dispatched with transmission constraints/losses/tariffs between them, with interchange based on market clearing prices n System Reliability / Emissions Constraints n Commitment and spinning reserve requirements n Automatic Maintenance Scheduling n Emissions Cap Energy Business Solutions 6 Name and Date

Capital Projects n Capital Expenditure and Recovery Module (CER) n Model the total capital Capital Projects n Capital Expenditure and Recovery Module (CER) n Model the total capital budget of a utility and perform revenue requirement, profitability and Internal Rate of Return Calculations for new capital additions n Help assess the viability of incremental acquisitions and investments n Ability to model project-specific financing n Used to calculate capital requirements for PROVIEW alternatives n Passes all information based on NEW capital additions to the Financial Reporting and Analysis Module Energy Business Solutions 7 Name and Date

Financial Statements n Financial Reporting and Analysis Module n Completely integrated financial analysis n Financial Statements n Financial Reporting and Analysis Module n Completely integrated financial analysis n Retail revenues transferred from the Load Forecast Adjustment Module n Fuel, O&M, emissions, purchased power costs, and wholesale revenue transferred from the Generation and Fuel Module n Capital additions are transferred from the Capital Expenditure and Recovery Module n Assets and Liabilities are modeled to develop beginning balance sheet n Automatic financing logic can be used to issue new short term and long term debt n Proforma financial statements generated (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Statement of Cash Flows) Energy Business Solutions 8 Name and Date

Integrated Strategic Planning Optimization, Resource Plans PROVIEW DP Resource Optimization Financial Planning, Consolidation and Integrated Strategic Planning Optimization, Resource Plans PROVIEW DP Resource Optimization Financial Planning, Consolidation and Analysis Holding Company Power. Base EEI Data Processor Load Forecast Adjustment Generation and Fuel Marketing Program Design Capital Expenditures Recovery Financial Reporting and Analysis Differential Cost Effectiveness Class Revenue Marketing Energy Business Solutions 9 Name and Date

Load Forecast Adjustment Module (LFA) Function: Represent Customer Demand for Production Cost and Financial Load Forecast Adjustment Module (LFA) Function: Represent Customer Demand for Production Cost and Financial Analysis Applications: n n n n Incorporate load research data Analyze strategic conservation and marketing programs Create data for demand-side/supply-side planning Model direct load control programs Evaluate impact of rate feedback Represent single or multi-company load Analyze Load Growth/Decline Energy Business Solutions 10 Name and Date

Sample Structure Company COMPANY LOAD CLASS Commercial Small Commercial Large Commercial Residential Electric Heat Sample Structure Company COMPANY LOAD CLASS Commercial Small Commercial Large Commercial Residential Electric Heat DLC Water Heaters Industrial Non-DLC Water Heaters Chemical Comp LOAD GROUP Energy Business Solutions 11 Name and Date

Sample Structure COMPANY LOAD CLASS LOAD GROUP Company Customer Demand Energy Business Solutions 12 Sample Structure COMPANY LOAD CLASS LOAD GROUP Company Customer Demand Energy Business Solutions 12 Name and Date

Integration with Other Modules Load Forecast and Adjustment Module (LFA) Company Load Generation and Integration with Other Modules Load Forecast and Adjustment Module (LFA) Company Load Generation and Fuel Module (GAF) Rate Feedback Production Costs Marketing Capitalized Capital Expenditure & Costs Recovery Module (CER) Incremental Capital Marketing Expenses Expensed and Rate Financial Reporting Costs Base and Analysis Module (FIR) Sales, Coincident / Noncoincident Peak Requirements System Revenue Requirements Class Revenue Module (CRM) Energy Business Solutions 13 Name and Date

Generation and Fuel Module (GAF) Function: Calculate Company and System Production Costs Applications: n Generation and Fuel Module (GAF) Function: Calculate Company and System Production Costs Applications: n n n n n Perform Unit Profitability Studies Model Power Pool Operations Create Market Price Curves Evaluate Unit Bidding Strategies Determine Portfolio Value and Risk Examine Alternative Technologies Evaluate Off-System Sales/Transactions Examine Emissions Compliance Evaluate Generation Fuel Mix Analyze Alternate Fuel Price Energy Business Solutions 14 Name and Date

GAF Process Flow n Seasonal Load Curves n Load Modifiers n Transactions n Hydro GAF Process Flow n Seasonal Load Curves n Load Modifiers n Transactions n Hydro Generation n Marginal Cost Dispatch n Storage Unit n Dispatchable Transaction n Direct Load Control n Network Economy Interchange n System Aggregate Pointers n Probabilistic Thermal Unit Dispatch n Reliability Calculations Energy Business Solutions 15 Name and Date

Network Economy Interchange Transco 100% ownership of line System Genco Disco Transco 50% 25% Network Economy Interchange Transco 100% ownership of line System Genco Disco Transco 50% 25% Transfer Points 300 MW 150 MW Market A 500 MW 800 MW Transco 25% ownership of line Market B Energy Business Solutions 16 Name and Date

NEI Methodology n NEI with no losses, connection charges or transmission constraints $/MWH Buyer’s NEI Methodology n NEI with no losses, connection charges or transmission constraints $/MWH Buyer’s Savings Seller’s MC Market Clearing Price Buyer’s MC Seller’s Profit Buyer pays = Interchange * MCP Seller receives = Interchange * MW Interchange Energy Business Solutions 17 Name and Date

Representation of Michigan Upper Peninsula Ontario North West MAPP South East - Areas - Representation of Michigan Upper Peninsula Ontario North West MAPP South East - Areas - Tie Lines ECAR Energy Business Solutions 18 Name and Date

Thermal Unit Dispatch n The GAF will dispatch generating units in economic order as Thermal Unit Dispatch n The GAF will dispatch generating units in economic order as adjusted or constrained by the following: n n n n Must run units Commitment Penalty factors Emissions adders Multiple fuels Spinning reserve Fuel limits Bid price MW Most Expensive Cheapest Hours Energy Business Solutions 19 Name and Date

Capital Expenditure and Recovery Module (CER) Function: n Model the total capital budget of Capital Expenditure and Recovery Module (CER) Function: n Model the total capital budget of a utility and perform revenue requirement, profitability, and IRR calculations n Help assess the viability of incremental acquisitions and investments n Pass all information based on NEW capital investment to the FIR n Transfer the Base Year Revenue Requirements for Proview alternatives Applications: n n n General Capital Budgeting Comparison of Alternative Projects Modeling the System Incremental Revenue Requirements Bond Sizing for Project Specific Financing Expansion Planning Analysis for PROVIEW Energy Business Solutions 20 Name and Date

Financial Planning and Analysis n Evaluate financial, rate and shareholder impacts of: n n Financial Planning and Analysis n Evaluate financial, rate and shareholder impacts of: n n n n Market Structure Transition Plans Mergers, Acquisitions, Divestitures Capital Costs Business Unit Structure Alternative Construction Programs Fuel Cost Scenarios n Produce planning studies in a short period of time n accurately reflect the long-range financial structure of the company n automatic financing n capital retirement and expense forecasts n revenue determination n taxes n run and manage multiple scenarios Energy Business Solutions 21 Name and Date

Transferring Data Between Modules n Data can be transferred automatically between modules in Strategist. Transferring Data Between Modules n Data can be transferred automatically between modules in Strategist. n Linking the GAF and the CER enables the user to model construction expenditures for planned resource additions. n Linking the LFA and the CER will allow the user to evaluate the financial impact of strategic marketing plans that have capitalized costs. n Linking the LFA and the FIR allows load and demand information to be transferred to the FIR for the calculation of revenues. n Linking the GAF to the FIR transfers the O&M, fuel, and purchased power expenses, and generating unit revenues. n Linking the CER and the FIR transfers the capital expenditures, book depreciation, tax depreciation, deferred taxes, insurance costs, property taxes, and construction work in progress balances. n Linking the CER and PROVIEW transfers the Base Year Revenue Requirements and a Revenue Requirements Profile calculated for a future expansion project in the CER to the alternative in PROVIEW. Energy Business Solutions 22 Name and Date

PROVIEW Function: To determine the most cost effective mix and timing of possible future PROVIEW Function: To determine the most cost effective mix and timing of possible future resources Applications: n Assess the profitability and risk of diverse resource portfolios n Manage alternative choices for the use / disposition of existing assets n Compare power purchases and sales opportunities n Develop optimal mix of owned and purchased resources n Evaluate transmission/generation/DSM tradeoffs n Evaluate impacts of changes in reliability / environmental constraints Energy Business Solutions 23 Name and Date

Power Portfolio Optimization n PROVIEW Optimization Module n Considers economics and constraints of adding Power Portfolio Optimization n PROVIEW Optimization Module n Considers economics and constraints of adding new resources or demand side management programs n New Thermal, Hydro, and Storage Units n New Power Contracts n Conversions of Existing Units n Transmission Line Upgrades n Demand Side Management Programs n PROVIEW optimizes the company’s (or pool’s) various alternatives while targeting the objective function: n Minimization of Utility Revenue Requirements (i. e. production and capital costs) n Minimization of Average Rates n Minimization of Total Resource Cost n Minimization of Societal Costs Energy Business Solutions 24 Name and Date

How does PROVIEW perform its optimization? n PROVIEW utilizes a proprietary dynamic programming algorithm How does PROVIEW perform its optimization? n PROVIEW utilizes a proprietary dynamic programming algorithm to perform a sequence of interrelated decisions n All possible combinations of new alternatives (type, amount, and timing), subject to input constraints, are given a comprehensive analysis over the planning period n Each plan’s capital cost impacts are evaluated using an Economic Carrying Charge methodology, assuming infinite replacement-in-kind for new alternatives n Plans are ranked for the study based on the present value of the selected objective function Energy Business Solutions 25 Name and Date

PROVIEW Expansion Constraints n System and/or Company Constraints: n n n Reserve Margin % PROVIEW Expansion Constraints n System and/or Company Constraints: n n n Reserve Margin % Emergency Energy Loss Of Load Hours Emissions Released Emission Allowances Sold n Alternative Constraints: n Annual Minimum and Maximum Added n Cumulative Minimum and Maximum Added n Restricted Alternative Combinations: n Mutually Inclusive/Exclusive (enforced over the entire planning period) n Simultaneously Inclusive/Exclusive (enforced each year) n Dependent and Chained Alternatives Energy Business Solutions 26 Name and Date

PROVIEW Reporting and Analysis n Comparison Reports show plans side-by-side, ranked by either the PROVIEW Reporting and Analysis n Comparison Reports show plans side-by-side, ranked by either the Planning Period total or Study Period total (including End Effects) n After an optimization, the top plan is automatically set up in the database, and the System Cost Report shows year-by-year production and capital costs n Any plan generated by PROVIEW (not just the optimal one) may be set up in the database for further analysis n PROVIEW can automatically run an input number of top plans and produce full financial reports over the planning period Energy Business Solutions 27 Name and Date

Strategist Planning Studies n Analyze resource decisions n n n Supply-side and Demand-side Build Strategist Planning Studies n Analyze resource decisions n n n Supply-side and Demand-side Build new resources Buy existing resources Refurbish/Repower/Mothball/Retire plants Financial options / futures contracts Environmental compliance options and costs n Evaluate financial, rate and shareholder impacts of: n n n Customer load Capital costs Alternative construction programs Interest rate scenarios Fuel cost scenarios Energy Business Solutions 28 Name and Date

Integrated Strategic Planning Optimization, Resource Plans PROVIEW DP Resource Optimization Financial Planning, Consolidation and Integrated Strategic Planning Optimization, Resource Plans PROVIEW DP Resource Optimization Financial Planning, Consolidation and Analysis Holding Company Power. Base EEI Data Processor Load Forecast Adjustment Generation and Fuel Marketing Program Design Capital Expenditures Recovery Financial Reporting and Analysis Differential Cost Effectiveness Class Revenue Marketing Energy Business Solutions 29 Name and Date