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New Directions Economic Renewal: New national and local policies www. enfield. gov. uk/newdirections In New Directions Economic Renewal: New national and local policies www. enfield. gov. uk/newdirections In partnership with: Striving for excellence

Enfield Welcome Cllr Doug Taylor Leader of the Council In partnership with: Enfield Welcome Cllr Doug Taylor Leader of the Council In partnership with:

Conference Background: • The co-ordinating Council • Starting the economic debate • Experimenting with Conference Background: • The co-ordinating Council • Starting the economic debate • Experimenting with concepts likely to improve our economic base • The economic challenges • Opportunity to think freely In partnership with:

Welcome from ESRC Dr Paul Sanderson Deputy Head of Knowledge Exchange, Economic and Social Welcome from ESRC Dr Paul Sanderson Deputy Head of Knowledge Exchange, Economic and Social Research Council In partnership with:

The View from the Frontline Rob Leak Chief Executive Enfield Council In partnership with: The View from the Frontline Rob Leak Chief Executive Enfield Council In partnership with:

Enfield: Location In partnership with: Enfield: Location In partnership with:

Enfield: Growth Corridors In partnership with: Enfield: Growth Corridors In partnership with:

Enfield: Long Term Decline • • Population – 300, 000 Unemployment –above London average Enfield: Long Term Decline • • Population – 300, 000 Unemployment –above London average Inequalities Skills and education – Great extremes but on average below London level • Business Growth – Low net business formation In partnership with:

Enfield: Decline in Private Sector LB Enfield: Percentage change in employment by sector 1998 Enfield: Decline in Private Sector LB Enfield: Percentage change in employment by sector 1998 -2008 1998: Total =93, 826; Private sector =71, 467; State & para-state =22, 359 2008: Total =92, 505; Private sector =62, 960; State & para-state =29, 545 35. 0 Percentage change 1998 -2008 30. 0 25. 0 20. 0 15. 0 10. 0 5. 0 0. 0 -5. 0 -10. 0 -15. 0 In partnership with: +32. 1% 7, 186 employees TOTAL Private sector -1. 4% -1, 321 employees -11. 9% -8, 507 employees Public & statefunded

London: Increase in Private Sector London: Percentage change in employment by sector 1998 -2008 London: Increase in Private Sector London: Percentage change in employment by sector 1998 -2008 1998: Total =3, 763, 873; Private sector =2, 945, 329; State & para-state =818, 544 2008: Total =4, 168, 468; Private sector =3, 217, 440; State & para-state =951, 028 18. 0 Percentage change 1998 -2008 16. 0 In partnership with: +16. 2% 132, 484 employees 14. 0 12. 0 10. 0 8. 0 +10. 7% 404, 595 employees +9. 2% 272, 111 employees 6. 0 4. 0 2. 0 0. 0 TOTAL Private sector Public & state-funded

Enfield: Low GVA Growth GVA per head in 2008 split by London regions (£) Enfield: Low GVA Growth GVA per head in 2008 split by London regions (£) 120, 000 £ 107, 863 (Headline) GVA per head £ 100, 000 80, 000 60, 000 40, 000 £ 35, 100 20, 000 £ 33, 499 £ 13, 911 £ 17, 874 £ 22, 758 0 London In partnership with: Inner London - Outer London West East and North South West and East North West

Enfield: Response • Significant regeneration activity • Engagement with business • Driving case for Enfield: Response • Significant regeneration activity • Engagement with business • Driving case for investment in infrastructure (rail / road / decentralised energy networks) • Innovative & creative solutions (market gardening) In partnership with:

Enfield: Opportunity • £ 2. 1 bn GVA per annum growth opportunity • Current Enfield: Opportunity • £ 2. 1 bn GVA per annum growth opportunity • Current planned interventions necessary but not sufficient • Need to broaden our thinking In partnership with:

Michael Moran CRESC University of Manchester In partnership with: Michael Moran CRESC University of Manchester In partnership with:

Popular Engagement with Local Government in the UK • Where have the party members Popular Engagement with Local Government in the UK • Where have the party members and voters gone? • Collapse of popular engagement via party membership • Popular participation through voting in Westminster elections has fallen • Approximation to regional government in England • Enfield conforms to the national pattern In partnership with:

Why The Crisis In Engagement? • Local autonomy and initiative are also among the Why The Crisis In Engagement? • Local autonomy and initiative are also among the most restricted in the EU • A decline from the historic importance of the local authority as key institution in welfare and other public services • A Key issue for today’s conference: how can local authority claim/reclaim a key role in local economic development? In partnership with:

Karel Williams Director ESRC Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change In partnership with: Karel Williams Director ESRC Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change In partnership with:

80 s “deindustrialisation”: (trade) crisis foretold 80 s prophets of Brit “deindustrialisation” = foretold 80 s “deindustrialisation”: (trade) crisis foretold 80 s prophets of Brit “deindustrialisation” = foretold pays crisis; activity mix = structural constraint on growth and jobs 90 s and 2000 s outcome = the worst did happen and the result was very agreeable q. Male working class lost as manufacturing employment 1979 -2009 = 7 -2. 5 mill; ex industrial districts of North and West >20% of wing age population parked up on benefit plus 2 generations of worklessness; …. BUT jobs for everybody else q. Trade balance on manufactures negative from 1983 with goods deficit of £ 90 billion by 2009; yet no crisis with windfall gain of North Sea oil and currencies redefined as asset classes (not as index of real economy)…. . So MCs had German cars and everybody had cheap/low wage manufactured goodies In partnership with:

Thatcher and Blair: (financial) crisis postponed Promised a working future and delivered an unsustainable Thatcher and Blair: (financial) crisis postponed Promised a working future and delivered an unsustainable boom; drivers of jobs + GDP growth (boosted by dereged finance = priv. profits + liabils = 5 X GDP) 1. Jobs creation ex state and para state health, edn and welfare; 1/3 rd of all jobs and > ½ extra New Labour jobs were publically funded; 2. Consumption demand ex housing equity withdrawal: HEW > GDP growth under Thatcher and Blair; peaking at 5% of GDP. 2008 financial crisis = structural constraint ex activity mix: ü end of state job creation / private sector with weak capacity to create jobs outside London: none in North East or West Midlands ü chronic demand deficiency ex (a) pro cyclical housing finance/ mortgage repayment and (b) trade deficit sucks demand ü pays deficit with energy and food insecurity; financial markets now distracted but not obliged to hold Sterling. In partnership with:

Structural/econ crisis also a political/cultural crisis Westminster and Whitehall can’t stand too much reality Structural/econ crisis also a political/cultural crisis Westminster and Whitehall can’t stand too much reality ü Deny crisis via demands for return to growth + alibis about the eurozone crisis ü Rhetorically embrace rebalancing = for Mandelson + Cameron/Osborne more manufing but not less finance ü Favour policy dualism of restrictive fiscal policy + ultra loose monetary policy (QE + low interest rates) Westminster and Whitehall don’t do renewal: q Political base and calculation: parties are Westminster cliques connected with electorate via Gouldite politics + allied to London finance… in a country that is breaking up. q Technical resource and expertise: renewal needs focus on activity base via industrial policy + regional policy; does civil service have expertise for encouraging new activity and managing old In partnership with:

Problem (1) legacy of “enterprise” thinking 30 year enterprise experiment ( revn. fails because Problem (1) legacy of “enterprise” thinking 30 year enterprise experiment ( revn. fails because it is incomplete) ü Generic policies : low taxes, privatisation, deregulation, flex. labour markets, free trade (ignore activity differences) ü Unsuccessful regions or groups ? compet. success by improving infrastucture or training: Centre for Cities etc Identified important policy levers but never pulled them effectively q UK infrastructure widens inequality: London + the SE is subsidised with 84% of planned gov. spending; grand projects for the North like HST without local connections for desenclavement q Vocational training never recovered from the collapse of the large socially responsible private employer; less than 2, 000 factories employing more than 200 and ¾ of manufacturing employ is in workshops employing 10 or less; In partnership with:

Problem (2) no new thinking about sectors Civil service has lost the plot: • Problem (2) no new thinking about sectors Civil service has lost the plot: • Monstered industrial policy as “picking winners” = traducing BL, ignoring RR; not honouring Norman Smith in N Sea oil procurement successes like RR • Lost expertise on private sector (maps + links, capabilities + capacity gaps); careers made by managing public sector reorganisation + putting out contracts. Politicians and think tanks talking but not doing sectors: • From Mark Prisk to IPPR list big or high tech sectors; neglect unglamorous private sectors like food processing (probably the largest consumer of machinery in the UK); and promote disintegration of public sector health and edn. • Cultural bias towards point source of value/ outsourcing and contracting out; what to do when Df. T train contracts or Tesco bacon buyers produce point success and chain collapse? No interest in the Morrisons model of vertical integration. In partnership with:

Problem (3) starting from a low level Manufacturing is in a bad way • Problem (3) starting from a low level Manufacturing is in a bad way • Problem of broken supply chains: JCB digger 1979 -2009 = 96 -36 % Brit by value; Bombardier imports its bogies from Germany; • No sustained output growth since 1970 s + cyclical fluctuations; manufacturing investment declines in 2000 s to < 10% of net output Multiple delusions of grandeur + come back: • Day dreams of export success; electric cars today or graphene tomorrow will be developed by well resourced competitors; • Unposed question of what to do about UK branch factories; will UK acquiesce on Opel/Vauxhall Ellesmere Port closure? . • No focus on import substitution in mundane activities ( vis a vis North European competitors); • No commitment to maintain public employment as the only credible short term palliative in eg West Midlands (where LEPs are doing renewal without institutions or resources ) In partnership with:

Implications? (1) the scope for fiscal policies Policy response to crisis? How to change Implications? (1) the scope for fiscal policies Policy response to crisis? How to change the UK activity mix (run industrial policy + regional policy) when the civil service lacks expertise + Westminster politicians are likely to resist serious changes? (1) Much more reliance on selective sector specific fiscal policies/ break with generic pro enterprise policies • Incentive packages for sector specific objectives eg we ‘d want value added promotion via corpn tax concessions for organic output growth in manufacturing + for vertical integration in supermarkets; in manufing add investment incentives via deprecn. allowances + employment incentives via national insurance. • Policies which require specific justification but don’t require lots of expertise; neither of the left nor of the right; what ‘s good enough for Rick Santorum ……. In partnership with:

Implications? (2) the revolution in government (2) We need a different and more active Implications? (2) the revolution in government (2) We need a different and more active kind of government: • Not governance but old fashioned government ( ie elected politicians + civil servants) with an economy wide agenda, committed to acquiring sector specific knowledges and varying policies accordingly • This is more than central government can cope with (at least until populist discontent intrudes); and much more than local government aspires to…. • Given the politics of Westminster and Whitehall much will depend on regional and local experiment ……. . In partnership with:

David Green Director - CIVITAS In partnership with: David Green Director - CIVITAS In partnership with:

The Political Case for New Policies: Political Benefits and Possibilities for Local Action Ben The Political Case for New Policies: Political Benefits and Possibilities for Local Action Ben Jackson University of Oxford In partnership with:

Sukhdev Johal Royal Holloway University of London In partnership with: Sukhdev Johal Royal Holloway University of London In partnership with:

Local Possibilities and Guerrilla Economic Development • Why national policies from central government are Local Possibilities and Guerrilla Economic Development • Why national policies from central government are unlikely to be the active, initiating force – National government can’t pay and won’t pay – The civil service has lost any sectoral expertise – The default remains non intervention except to make markets work better In partnership with:

Local Possibilities and Guerrilla Economic Development – continued • If the aim is renewal, Local Possibilities and Guerrilla Economic Development – continued • If the aim is renewal, import substitution, job creation etc, local government is an unlikely hero • Let’s start with several policies that cost little and make a difference • Then get some funding so local government can build social housing and invest in infrastructure and also think about moving back into running businesses which yield a surplus In partnership with:

Open Discussion Will Davies Centre for Mutual and Employee-owned Business University of Oxford In Open Discussion Will Davies Centre for Mutual and Employee-owned Business University of Oxford In partnership with:

Comments and Overview Sir Peter Hall Professor of Planning and Regeneration UCL and President Comments and Overview Sir Peter Hall Professor of Planning and Regeneration UCL and President Town and Country Planning Association In partnership with:

Comments and Overview Tony Jackson Contributing Editor Financial Times In partnership with: Comments and Overview Tony Jackson Contributing Editor Financial Times In partnership with:

Introduction to Afternoon Activities Neil Rousell Director of Regeneration, Leisure & Culture LB Enfield Introduction to Afternoon Activities Neil Rousell Director of Regeneration, Leisure & Culture LB Enfield Kevin Hughes Deputy Assistant Commissioner London Fire Brigade In partnership with:

Redressing the balance: Are Enfieldans getting as much from the big corporations as they Redressing the balance: Are Enfieldans getting as much from the big corporations as they are getting from us? Cllr Achilleas Georgiou Deputy Leader, Enfield Council Cllr Alan Sitkin Chair, Sustainability scrutiny panel (European Business School London) In partnership with:

Supply side economics: the voodoo that you do so well… • Background: Reagan/Thatcher paradigm Supply side economics: the voodoo that you do so well… • Background: Reagan/Thatcher paradigm shift 30 years ago leading to: a) Fall in global ‘wage share’ (compensation/value added) b) Fall in corporation tax rates (Laffer curve? Rather the laughing curve) • Consequences: a) Squeezed middle (weaker multiplier effect); Disparities (we’re all in it together? ) b) Deficits (destabilised financial systems); Capitalism for the poor, socialism for the rich? • What to does this mean for our borough? START BY MEASURING BIG COMPANIES’ TRADING PROFITS IN ENFIELD In partnership with:

The Big Retailers (AND WE DON’T EVEN HAVE STATS FOR 3 BP STATIONS, 2 The Big Retailers (AND WE DON’T EVEN HAVE STATS FOR 3 BP STATIONS, 2 SHELL STATIONS, ETC) 2010/2011 UK extrapolated pretax trading profit Stores in Enfield/ Total stores Tesco £ 2. 5 bn (UK) 11/2, 715 (UK) £ 10. 1 mil Asda £ 739 mil (total) 4/523 (total) £ 5. 7 mil Sainsbury’s £ 827 mil (total) 6/1, 000 (total) £ 4. 9 mil Every Sainsbury’s store chooses a local charity to help with fundraising i. e. Highlands Village - Chickenshed Morrison’s £ 874 mil (total) 2/455 (total) £ 3. 8 mil Charity partner – N. Ldn Hospice Hosts fundraisers Waitrose £ 275 mil (total) 3/250 (total) £ 3. 3 mil “Community matters”, i. e. Enfield Chase gives £ 6 k/yr to 36 causes In partnership with: Prorata annual profits from Enfield stores …and the only Corporate Responsibility actions we could find in Enfield were. . Community toilet scheme Charity fundraising stalls Schools and Clubs scheme “Wants to play an active role” Edmonton store donated £ 26 K but to Starks Field Primary School

The Big Utilities Conversion factor: 300 k inhabitants in Enfield vs. 60 mil in The Big Utilities Conversion factor: 300 k inhabitants in Enfield vs. 60 mil in UK =. 005 2010/2011 UK extrapolated annual pre-tax trading profit Southern Electric British Gas N. Power E. On UK (+ Brimsdown Power station) Prorata annual profits from Enfieldans £ 1. 3 bil £ 6. 5 mil £ 742 mil £ 3. 7 mil £ 277 mil £ 1. 4 mil No indications found £ 1. 1 mil Hosts school visits, helps w/curriculum Donated £ 1 k to LBE Volunteering Event ‘Heat. Streets’ – energy efficiency installations Free energy check-ups £ 226 mil …and the only Corporate Responsibility actions we could find in Enfield were. . No specific indications found Swimfit – sponsored national campaign ‘Green streets’ £ 2 mio nationally (£ 10 k here? ) Support for MIND in Enfield EDF Energy £ 92 mil £ 0. 5 mil No specific indications found Scottish Power £ 82 mil £ 0. 4 mil No specific indications found (not to forget) BSKYB £ 1. 1 bil £ 5. 5 mil No specific indications found (not to forget) Thames Water £ 750 mil (conversion factor: 300 K/30 mil =. 01) £ 7. 5 mil No specific indications found

The Big Banks Enfield branches/ Total UK branches Lloyds TSB/ HBOS Barclays HSBC 5/2, The Big Banks Enfield branches/ Total UK branches Lloyds TSB/ HBOS Barclays HSBC 5/2, 902 10/1, 675 7/1, 500 Santander 6/1, 300 RBS 6/2, 250 In partnership with: 2010/2011 UK Extrapolated annual pre-tax trading profit Prorata annual profits from Enfieldans …and the only Corporate Responsibility actions we could find in Enfield were. . £ 8. 3 mil -Sponsored 2007 Enterprise Enfield ‘Innovative business of the year award’ - Contributed to N. Ldn Hospice gift appeal £ 1. 1 bil £ 6. 6 mil -Sponsored 2008 & 2009 Enterprise Enfield ‘Innovative business of the year award’ -Support for Wooden Spoon rugby charity -Enfield Children in Need match funding £ 1. 4 bil £ 6. 5 mil No specific indications found £ 5. 1 mil Social Enterprise Development Award – available in Enfield (No indications found £ 3. 5 mil Nat. West Community Force: (2011) New roof for 12 th Enfield Scouts £ 4. 8 bil £ 1. 1 bil £ 1. 3 bil

The status quo needs to change… • While Enfield de-industrializes, these 18 companies make The status quo needs to change… • While Enfield de-industrializes, these 18 companies make an est. £ 84. 4 mil annually in pre-tax trading profits, i. e. even after accounting for wages paid to their (very few) full-time local employees • After average FTSE 100 tax rate of 26%, they make an est. £ 62. 5 mil annually in net profits from Enfield alone. Split into: - retained earnings/fixed investment? UK among lowest in OECD - dividends? UK amongst highest in OECD (financialization? ) SO WHAT KIND OF NEW DIRECTION CAN WE TAKE? In partnership with:

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR): building brands…but how? • Corporate brand reputation are important • Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR): building brands…but how? • Corporate brand reputation are important • But CSR thinking needs to change c. f. GDF SUEZ: Corporate image – ‘Aims to set the benchmark in corporate social responsibility. The challenge is realised by setting concrete, quantified objectives and action plans implemented across the Group’s various entities. ’ Heading towards a professionalisation of CSR? In partnership with:

The Power of CSR and Branding • 65% of executives believe product brands benefit The Power of CSR and Branding • 65% of executives believe product brands benefit from a company’s reputation • 55% of executives believe people care about the companies behind the brands • 70% of consumers avoid products if they don’t like the company • 67% of consumers check product labels (‘company identification’) • 86% companies are making greater efforts to build reputation In partnership with: Source: Weber Shandwick (2011) ‘The company behind the brand: in reputation we trust’

What CSR measures are companies taking at present to enhance their reputation in Enfield? What CSR measures are companies taking at present to enhance their reputation in Enfield? • • • Tesco – charity fundraising stalls Asda – donations to a local school Santander – ‘Social Enterprise Development Award’ RBS – ‘Nat. West Community Force’ etc. And we are thankful. Of course… In partnership with:

But what else might be done? See what is being done elsewhere • Barclays, But what else might be done? See what is being done elsewhere • Barclays, in different countries - Supports young people starting their own businesses • RBS, in India - Sponsors community setting up an eco-tourism centre • BP, in Egypt – Offers technical skills training programme • Allianz, in Romania - Provides vocational training for 16 -18 year olds at technical college • Tesco, in South Korea - Funds 107 schools of extended education (total 940, 000 (!!) places) In partnership with:

The scale of the challenge in London and Enfield: Un/Employment, Graduates and NEETs • The scale of the challenge in London and Enfield: Un/Employment, Graduates and NEETs • National unemployment: 8. 4% and rising fast (c. f. ONS, 15 February 2012) (London average – 10%: second highest in UK) (c. f. ONS, 15 February 2012) ENFIELD OVERALL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE = 11% !! • Youth Unemployment (aged 16 -24): 22. 2% across UK (c. f. ONS, 15 February 2012) (London average>23% in autumn ‘ 11 – higher now!) • Graduates: 27. 7% across UK without full-time jobs after three years (c. f. BBC, 2 Sept. 2011) • NEETs in Enfield: aged 16 -18 > 5% aged 16 -24 >20% In partnership with:

The scale of the challenge in Enfield: Un/Employment, Graduates and NEETs (cont. ) • The scale of the challenge in Enfield: Un/Employment, Graduates and NEETs (cont. ) • Total number of people looking for work in Enfield has risen by 17. 9 per cent in the past year to 10, 721 • Just 1, 296 vacancies for people to apply for in Enfield vs 10, 721 jobseekers • Across London 233, 673 people are looking for work vs. 32, 843 vacancies • Nr. young people out of work (18 -24 years, claiming Job Seekers Allowance for 6 months) in Enfield has risen by 156 per cent in the past year to 770. • The number of young people out of work of across London is now over 1 mio Source http: //joannemccartney. co. uk/2012 (20 January 2012), usi ng Job. Centre Plus statistics In partnership with:

Economic and Social Responsibilities go together • Economic and Social Responsibilities go together • "We believe that our status as leader in the Romanian insurance market obliges us to be socially active over the long term. . . We hope our project will be exemplary in showing that companies with economic goals and interests also have a social responsibility towards the market or area they are operating in. ” Christian Constantinescu, Director, Allianz-Tiriac Insurance. In partnership with:

The opportunity (and need) for deeper CSR in Enfield Supporting youth training and local The opportunity (and need) for deeper CSR in Enfield Supporting youth training and local employment: Putting people at the heart of CSR After all, business also benefits from an upgraded workforce (advanced skill set; higher productivity; greater creativity) One example: October 2012 LBE/Southgate College Environmental Techniques Fair • Tomorrow’s industries: - environmental construction (refurbishment, new technologies) - complex products and infrastructure (electric vehicles; fibre optics) In partnership with: Investing in workers to drive industrial regeneration

The LB Enfield Initiatives Local regeneration and tailoring policies to meet local aims Cllr The LB Enfield Initiatives Local regeneration and tailoring policies to meet local aims Cllr Del Goddard Cabinet Member for Business and Regeneration LB Enfield In partnership with:

Local regeneration and tailoring policies to meet local aims • What is local • Local regeneration and tailoring policies to meet local aims • What is local • Understanding the historical wealth of Enfield • Mitigating and utilising external policies and strategies • The current approach

The LB Enfield Initiatives Harnessing finance to foster economic growth Cllr Andrew Stafford Cabinet The LB Enfield Initiatives Harnessing finance to foster economic growth Cllr Andrew Stafford Cabinet Member for Finance & Property LB Enfield In partnership with:

What’s going wrong in Enfield • The Borough has been starved of finance from What’s going wrong in Enfield • The Borough has been starved of finance from governments over the last 30 years • Europe has failed to play its part in economic regeneration in Enfield • Large business have only been concerned with private profit not the ‘Public Good’. In partnership with:

The 7 th Cavalry are not coming………. In partnership with: The 7 th Cavalry are not coming………. In partnership with:

It’s going to be down to Enfield to get finance In partnership with: It’s going to be down to Enfield to get finance In partnership with:

Daring to think…………. . “The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful Daring to think…………. . “The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful business of thinking. ” John Kenneth Galbraith In partnership with:

Where is the finance coming from? Traditional methods • Government – No it’s probably Where is the finance coming from? Traditional methods • Government – No it’s probably going to be reduced. • Land sales • The Council’s cash reserves – already committed and spent. • Partnership with the private sector In partnership with:

So where is the finance coming from ? Some radical ideas • Wealth distribution So where is the finance coming from ? Some radical ideas • Wealth distribution –taxing central London to finance regeneration in deprived areas within London • Relaxing local government planning regulations to aid land sales. • Taxing Companies locally where they are exploiting ‘the Free Rider Principle’ where businesses do not contribute to the ‘public good’ of the Enfield local economy. • Unlocking the resources contained in Pension Funds In partnership with:

Leading the way – we are ready to jump In partnership with: Leading the way – we are ready to jump In partnership with:

Breakout sessions: The Enfield Initiatives 1. Local procurement, CSR, Business Trusts, Clearing House for Breakout sessions: The Enfield Initiatives 1. Local procurement, CSR, Business Trusts, Clearing House for Entrepreneurs. Session facilitated by Johnna Montgomerie, CRESC 2. Social Enterprise, Collaborative Utility Charges, Collaborative Purchasing. Session facilitated by Andrew Bowman, CRESC 3. Bond Issue, Pension Funds, Equity Release and Banking charges. Session facilitated by Adam Leaver, MBS and CRESC In partnership with:

So what can work for Enfield? Reports by facilitators from breakout sessions In partnership So what can work for Enfield? Reports by facilitators from breakout sessions In partnership with:

Overview David Bailey Chair of Regional Studies Association and Coventry University Business School In Overview David Bailey Chair of Regional Studies Association and Coventry University Business School In partnership with:

Reflections on today • Manufacturing – ‘rebalancing’ • Broader Economy • Shift from RDAs Reflections on today • Manufacturing – ‘rebalancing’ • Broader Economy • Shift from RDAs to LEPs; ‘localism’ agenda where does it leave us? In partnership with:

1. Manufacturing • Manufacturing output contracted by 15% during the recession. • In late 1. Manufacturing • Manufacturing output contracted by 15% during the recession. • In late 2009, our survey work with Deloitte highlighted 3 key issues: Growth in export markets, skills and credit availability • These could help the UK rebalance its economy and export its way out of recession: BUT need for a more supportive industrial policy • What actually happened over 2008 – 2011 ? • 7. 4% fall in GDP, unemployment didn’t rise as much as in previous recessions In partnership with:

Firms’ Responses to Recession – Revenue generation; cost reduction; or asset reduction. – Cost Firms’ Responses to Recession – Revenue generation; cost reduction; or asset reduction. – Cost control – but different to past recessions: – Labour hoarding, pay freezes, limits on overtime, shorttime working, recruitment freezes, banking of hours, pay cuts, reduced shift-patterns, more flexible working, and use of fixed-term, temporary and agency staff, tele/remote working where possible. – SMEs: revenue generating activities. In partnership with:

Manufacturing 2010 -11 Manufacturing • Rapid ‘bounce back’ until early 2011: around a half Manufacturing 2010 -11 Manufacturing • Rapid ‘bounce back’ until early 2011: around a half of the manufacturing output fall had been recovered. Depreciation of sterling helped. • Confidence: PMI held up above 50 until early 2011. • BUT manufacturing growth ran out of steam over 2011: Big fall in PMI; by Q 3 below 50. Why? • Figures deceived anyway, plus. . . • UK: squeeze in real incomes, consumer confidence, plus fiscal squeeze. • Externally: Eurozone, US, world economy? In partnership with:

Spare Capacity? • Spare capacity so manufacturers able to increase output rather than prices, Spare Capacity? • Spare capacity so manufacturers able to increase output rather than prices, but for how long? • How much capacity was lost or will be lost for good? If capacity loss significant then capacity limit will be hit sooner rather than later. • Risk that prolonged weak demand will make temporary losses in output structural and permanent. • GROWTH and INVESTMENT is critical In partnership with:

If we really want to to ‘rebalance’ economy. . . If we really want If we really want to to ‘rebalance’ economy. . . If we really want ‘rebalance’ the economy. . . • Industrial Policy targeted at manufacturing • Capital allowances • Focus corporation tax cuts for manufacturing firms that increase output • National insurance holidays for firms that take on workers • Better R&D tax credits • Better support for exporters • Manufacturing loan fund? (Automotive – Relocalisation / Repatriation of supply chain) • Green Investment Bank? In partnership with:

2. Broader Economic Issues • Level of demand in the UK economy: impact of 2. Broader Economic Issues • Level of demand in the UK economy: impact of fiscal tightening. Assumption. . . • ‘Balance Sheet recession’ (Japanese experience) + ‘Paradox of Thrift’ + ‘Prisoners’ dilemma’? • Money Supply – M 4 falling – need for more ‘QE’ ? (‘PLAN A+’? ) • ‘credit easing’ ? (bank lending - £ 9. 6 bn in 2011) • Level of Sterling? In partnership with:

Summary • Macro position worse than looks? (lost decade? ) • Manufacturing slowed down Summary • Macro position worse than looks? (lost decade? ) • Manufacturing slowed down in 2011: retail, services? • Headwinds from international economy • Consumers squeezed • Makes it difficult for growth ‘plan’ to stack up – deficit reduction? • Autumn Statement: ‘Plan A+’ enough? ? In partnership with:

4. From RDAs to LEPs • ‘Old’ system of RDAs not perfect BUT. . 4. From RDAs to LEPs • ‘Old’ system of RDAs not perfect BUT. . . • Proposals do not make clear what regional growth drivers / levers LEPs will be able to influence • What’s the Offer? Localism bill, RGF, Enterprise Zones, faster planning. . . In partnership with:

Recentralisation / Decentralisation Current proposals imply a substantial recentralisation to Whitehall Centralised industrial policy Recentralisation / Decentralisation Current proposals imply a substantial recentralisation to Whitehall Centralised industrial policy not likely to work LEPs: transport, housing, planning, enterprise (? ) Skills? Business engagement? RGF big cut in funding – need scope for LEPs to raise own finance (Ti. Fs / Business Rates? ); slow; lack of transparency RDAs assets back to Whitehall / HCA. In partnership with:

Cont’d. . . Risk of excessive fragmentation – functional economic geography? Capability/capacity to make Cont’d. . . Risk of excessive fragmentation – functional economic geography? Capability/capacity to make strategically informed decisions on economic development? Need for ‘intermediate level’: Intelligence, monitoring, accessing EU funding, regional planning, clusters and innovation In partnership with:

Summary • LEPs need genuine powers and the ability to raise funding: for some Summary • LEPs need genuine powers and the ability to raise funding: for some cities, govt listening? • Right scale? Intermediate ‘join up’ of work of LEPs between local and national level critical to use public monies effectively – minimum: intelligence and info gathering base, pursuing effective cluster and innovation strategies and accessing EU funding • ‘Duty to cooperate’? (Draft NPPF) In partnership with:

What can be done locally? • • ‘presumption of competence’ – ‘proceed until apprehended’ What can be done locally? • • ‘presumption of competence’ – ‘proceed until apprehended’ ‘well being powers’ Chance of greater revenue raising powers? Bond issuing – local authority pension funds (change rules? ) 2010: Local Authority Pension Funds Assets: £ 161 bn 1% = £ 1. 6 bn + fee saver: +£ 300 m £ 1. 9 bn a year for 5 years Enterprise Zones: keep business rates, and B’ham; borrow against rateable value to raise money for econ development • Ti. Fs – but dangers? • Procurement Policy – intelligent, local where possible, small firms, encourage private firms • Wealth tax? Duke of Westminster: 2009: £ 26. 5 bn £ 30 bn: additional ‘freehold tax’ of 1. 1%? In partnership with:

Thanks for listening. • Comments, Questions welcome! david. bailey@coventry. ac. uk In partnership with: Thanks for listening. • Comments, Questions welcome! david. [email protected] ac. uk In partnership with:

Overview Dan Milmo Industrial Editor The Guardian In partnership with: Overview Dan Milmo Industrial Editor The Guardian In partnership with:

Next Steps for Enfield Rob Leak Chief Executive LB Enfield Doug Taylor Leader of Next Steps for Enfield Rob Leak Chief Executive LB Enfield Doug Taylor Leader of the Council LB Enfield In partnership with: