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NDA Programme Meeting Wednesday 20 th October 2010 Hilton London Euston Hotel, 17 -18 Upper Woburn Place, Bloomsbury, WC 1 H 0 HT meeting 11. 00 Two CRPs: Science and Knowledge Transfer : MAP 2030 (Mike Murphy)
Modelling Ageing Populations to 2030 (MAP 2030) Prepared for MAP 2030 Final Conference, LSE 17 th June 2010
Some Recent Initiatives Royal Commission on Long-Term Care Wanless I & II Pensions Commission Free personal care in Scotland Green Paper on LTC White Paper on LTC New Government, 2010 CSR 20 th Oct 2010 Dilnot long term care commission …
MAP 2030 Programme Objectives To produce high quality analysis to inform public debate and development of future long-term care and pensions policy up to 2030 by: • projecting the numbers, disability status, family circumstances, income, savings and care needs of older people • assessing the affordability and distribution of costs and benefits of combined policy options for pensions and long-term care • accounting for links between care needs and economic resources in later life
MAP 2030 Structure Mortality trends & implications linkages
Methods • an integrated programme of new statistical analysis and modelling • building on pre-existing models • sensitivity testing to key trends • scenarios on key unknowns
The Applicants Mike Murphy LSE & Raphael Wittenberg, Adelina Comas-Herrera, Linda Pickard, Derek King, Juliette Malley, PSSRU Carol Jagger & James Lindesay, Newcastle & Leicester Emily Grundy, LSHTM Ruth Hancock, East Anglia & Essex Chris Curry, PPI Plus Department for Work and Pensions Thanks also to researchers who worked on the project
Future needs and resources of the older population: domains and interactions • accumulation and distribution of income & assets • ability to meet care costs • how trends in mortality and morbidity will evolve & will the extra years of life will be lived in good health? • the consequences of family change for the availability of informal care & social participation • availability and need for informal & formal care • how these domains: – are inter-related – differ between socio-economic and income groups – influence, and are influenced by policy
MAP 2030 Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications Outputs: Forecasts & cross-national analyses of mortality trends as inputs to other Work Packages Elucidate processes by which cohort effects may work through particular diseases by analysing the role of causespecific mortality
"http: //webstaging. lse. ac. uk/collections/MAP 2030/"
Future needs and resources of the older population: domains and interactions • Past is “nice to know” • Future is “need to know”
In the next 25 years (2006 -2031) Total UK expected population growth approx 10. 3 million 1. 2 million more children (0 -19) 3. 0 million more ‘working age’ (20 -64) 6. 2 million more older people (65 & over) – of which 2. 8 million 80 & over Based on Office for National Statistics 2008 -based projections (http: //www. gad. gov. uk/) – Note higher than EU
The first generation to live less than its parents? “The life expectancy of some of today's children will be years shorter than their parents' if current trends of poor diet and lack of exercise continue, Yvette Cooper, the Public Health minister, will warn today. ” (Independent Thursday, 19 October 2000) "The truth is that children born today could become part of the first generation in American history to live shorter lives than their parents. . . " (Bill Clinton The Times May 10, 2005) “A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21 st Century. ” (SJ Olshansky et al (2005). New England Journal of Medicine 352: 1138 -45)
Projections of population aged 85 & over in 2011, 2031 and 2041, alternative projection base years, England & Wales Source: author's calculations based on official projections
England & Wales standardised mortality rate annual smoothed improvement (%) 1960 -2050 (2006 -based principal projection) Author's calculations based on WHO European Standard
Male cohort life expectancy at age 65, UK: "optimists" and "pessimists" UK & E&W, based on 2008 projections & Pensions Commission
Wider kin: Estimated number of grandparents, England 1851 -2011 Department of Health (2010) On the State of Public Health, 2009 Annual Report of the Chief Medical Officer, p. 48.
Wider kin: Estimated number of grandparents by age in England, 2011 Department of Health (2010) On the State of Public Health, 2009 Annual Report of the Chief Medical Officer, p. 49.
The ‘care gap’: difference between supply of intense intergenerational care & demand for care by disabled older people (000 s), England 2005 -2041 Pickard 2008 a
The Demographic Overview Michael Murphy London School of Economics Prepared for All Party Parliamentary Local Government Group Inquiry: Services for older people, 5 th June 2008
Mortality trends in Britain and future numbers of older people Michael Murphy London School of Economics Prepared for British Society for Population Studies Meeting Future needs and resource of the older population in Britain , 16 th June 2008
Advisory input/ links with relevant bodies The team have held discussions with the National Centre for Social Research to discuss the development of a module of questions asking about receipt of care. The team are currently developing a proposal with the National Centre for funding for this work with a view to developing questions to be included in ELSA and other surveys e. g. the Health & Social Care Information Centre’s proposed new health and social care, household surveys etc. We were funded by DWP to take forward our comparative analyses of data on disability in different surveys. Consultation seminar hosted by James Purnell, Minister of State for Pensions Reform, 7 th June 2007 (PPI) Submission to Department of Health Green Paper on the reform of adult social care. (Wittenberg R. , Hancock R. , Malley J. , King D. , Comas-Herrera A. , Pickard L. and Morciano M (2008) Paying for Long-Term Care: Potential Reforms to Funding Longterm Care – Free Personal Care, Disregard of Housing Assets and Wanless Patterns of Care) [date] Ruth Hancock has participated in an advisory board for a Resolution Foundation study of long-term care, the report of which was published on 8 th December. Carol Jagger has been made a member of the Mortality Research Steering Group. Mike Murphy, Ruth Hancock and Linda Pickard presented research from the MAP 2030 project to the Chair of the All Party Parliamentary Local Government Group Enquiry into Services for Older People (June 2008) and their contribution was acknowledged in the final LGi. U report, Never Too Late for Living (July 2008). Mike Murphy is a member of ONS Expert Group on population projections and adviser on marital status projections. Mike Murphy was a member of Board for Actuarial Standards Mortality Working Group. WP 5 were approached by the Liberal Democrats to give advice on policies for financing long-term care Carol Jagger and Raphael Wittenberg gave oral evidence to the House of Commons Health Committee for the inquiry on Social Care. Two sets of written evidence were submitted by members of WP 5 to the House of Commons Health Committee for the inquiry on Social Care. Evidence on informal care was submitted by Linda Pickard and has now been published by the Health Committee. Evidence on paying for long-term care was written by Ruth Hancock and colleagues and is due to be published by the Health Committee early in 2010 (see above, under ‘Publications’ for further details of both sets of evidence). Ruth Hancock was consulted by Norman Lamb MP over long-term care financing policy (22 Dec 2009) Linda Pickard was consulted on informal care policy by the Québec Ministry for Families and the Elderly (16 October 2009) Michael Murphy was consulted by Law Commission about kin networks in Britain Michael Murphy was a member of an expert group briefing the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, 21 st July 2010 about changes to the long-term care system. Mike Murphy estimated numbers of grandparents in England since the `850 s which formed part of the 2010 Chief Medical Officer’s Report.
Advisory input/ links with relevant bodies - examples funded by DWP to take forward our comparative analyses of data on disability in different surveys. consultation seminar hosted by James Purnell, Minister of State for Pensions Reform, 7 th June 2007 (PPI) presented research from the MAP 2030 project to the Chair of the All Party Parliamentary Local Government Group Enquiry into Services for Older People (June 2008) and their contribution was acknowledged in the final LGi. U report, Never Too Late for Living (July 2008). WP 5 gave advice on policies for financing long-term care to Liberal Democrats oral evidence to the House of Commons Health Committee for the inquiry on Social Care. Michael Murphy was a member of an expert group briefing the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, 21 st July 2010 about changes to the long-term care system. estimated numbers of grandparents in England since the 1850 s which formed part of the 2010 Chief Medical Officer’s Report.
Seminars - examples We have held a series of seminars throughout 2009 covering different aspects of the MAP 2030 programme. May 2009 seminar on "The future of family support for older people" held at LSE. This was held as a joint conference with the European Association for Population Studies Working Group on Demographic Change and support of older people workshop on "The Future of Family Support for Older People A total of 24 papers were presented and over 60 people - from 16 different countries- participated.