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Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont, Wilfried Winiwarter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Frantisek Gyarfas, Imrich Bertok Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont, Wilfried Winiwarter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Frantisek Gyarfas, Imrich Bertok Draft Baseline Scenarios for CAFE Task Force for Integrated Assessment Modelling Amiens, May 10 -12, 2004

Integrated assessment in CAFE Energy/agriculture projections Driving forces Emission control options Emissions Costs BASELINE Integrated assessment in CAFE Energy/agriculture projections Driving forces Emission control options Emissions Costs BASELINE PROJECTION OPTIMIZATION Atmospheric dispersion Health and environmental impacts Environmental targets

Preparation of input data Preparation of input data

Bilateral consultations Main issues Energy projections: • Discrepancies of year 2000 energy statistics • Bilateral consultations Main issues Energy projections: • Discrepancies of year 2000 energy statistics • Comments on PRIMES projections – Obvious discrepancies – Differences in expectations Emission calculations: • Review of year 2000 emission inventory • Penetration rates of control measures • Emission control potential for • SO 2, NOx, VOC, NH 3, PM 10/2. 5

Bilateral consultations (1) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments received Bilateral consultations (1) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments received Comments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr. scen Denmark - - 16 Jan 04 - Y Y Latvia - - 08 Oct 03 - - Y 2 -3 Oct 03 2 05 Dec 03 – 23 Mar 04 - 30 -31 Oct 03 4 - - Hungary 14 Nov 03 1 - - Germany 20 -21 Nov 03 4 19 Dec 03 - 23 Mar 04 Y - - Czech Republic 25 Nov 03 3 19 Dec - 27 Feb, 07 Apr 04 Y - Y ACEA 12 Dec 03 10 - - 15 -16 Dec 03 2 19 Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04 Y Y - France 8 -9 Jan 04 5 31 Mar 04 - 2 -15 Apr 04 Y Y - Sweden 22 -23 Jan 04 3 29 Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04 Y Y Y UK 26 -28 Jan 04 8 19 Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04 Y - Y 4 -5 Feb 04 5 30 Mar 04 - 13 Apr 04 Y - - EUROPIA EURELECTRIC Italy Spain Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

Bilateral consultations (2) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments received Bilateral consultations (2) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments received Comments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr. . scen Portugal 12 -13 Feb 04 5 27 Feb, 03, 05 Mar - 08 Apr 04 Y Y Y Belgium 16 -17 Feb 04 7 08 Mar - 2 -13 Apr, 06 Apr 04 Y Y - Austria 23 Feb 04 11 24 Feb - 18, 19 Mar, 19 Apr 04 - - Y Ireland 4 -5/19 Mar 04 2 12, 19 Mar 04 Y - Y ESVOC 8 Mar 04 3 - - - Finland 8 -9 Mar 04 3 19, 25 Mar 04 - 19 Apr 04 Y (Y) - Lithuania 10 Mar 04 2 24 Mar 04 Y - - Estonia 12 Mar 04 2 17 Mar 04 - - - Slovakia 15 Mar 04 3 22 Mar 04 Y - - 17 -18 Mar 04 2 17, 18 Mar 04 - 07 Apr 04 - - - 22 Mar 04 2 24, 29 Mar 04 - 01, 08 Apr 04 - Y Y 25 -26 Mar 04 4 16 Mar 04 - 02, 08, 18 Apr 04 Y - Y 94 21 14 7 10 Poland Slovenia Netherlands 19 + 4 Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

CAFE energy baseline projections • Two draft baseline projections – available – include PRIMES CAFE energy baseline projections • Two draft baseline projections – available – include PRIMES numbers plus additional assumptions from national submissions (e. g. , share of LDTs in freight transport, fuel use by off-road vehicles and maritime activities, corrections for fuel used outside EMEP area) • National projections - will be implemented by June – Currently available for eight countries, some of them need to be completed or re-formatted • Revised PRIMES projection (with climate) by June

Approach for baseline emission projections • Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 – Approach for baseline emission projections • Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 – Problem: for some countries important differences between subsequent submissions (e. g. , to CLRTAP, NEC, new national total different by > 10%) – Values reported to CLRTAP plus changes documented during consultations taken into account • Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020 – Takes international and national legislation into account – Done together with national teams to also include “current practices”

Transport emissions - approach (1) • Exhaust emissions – fuel use from PRIMES • Transport emissions - approach (1) • Exhaust emissions – fuel use from PRIMES • Non-exhaust emissions – veh-km (derived from fuel use) • Turnover of fleet taken from national estimates • National emission factors applied where available (Auto/Oil estimates modified during consultations) • Efficiencies of EURO-stages based on Auto/Oil info plus other sources (TREMOD, Austrian model, RICARDO - for EURO 5/6)

Transport emissions - approach (2) • Impact of cycle-beating for trucks on NOx considered Transport emissions - approach (2) • Impact of cycle-beating for trucks on NOx considered (ARTEMIS Project, report by TU Graz, 2003), generates inconsistencies with some national 2000 emission inventories • Other findings of ARTEMIS not included • Data for off-road sources from EGTEI • Consistency with TREMOVE not yet established • Further calibration and updates is needed when new data become available

Next steps June 2004 • Incorporation of national scenarios • Feedbacks on the 2 Next steps June 2004 • Incorporation of national scenarios • Feedbacks on the 2 draft emission scenarios • Revised PRIMES scenario (with climate measures) taking into accountry comments September 2004 • First set of policy scenarios

Draft baseline emission projections Draft baseline emission projections

Energy projections Energy projections

Energy use per fuel EU-15 [PJ] No further climate measures Solid fuels Liquid fuels Energy use per fuel EU-15 [PJ] No further climate measures Solid fuels Liquid fuels Natural gas Renewable With climate measures Nuclear Difference to "no further climate measures"

Energy use per fuel New Member States [PJ] No further climate measures Solid fuels Energy use per fuel New Member States [PJ] No further climate measures Solid fuels Liquid fuels Natural gas Renewable With climate measures Nuclear Difference to "no further climate measures"

Agricultural projections Agricultural projections

Animal numbers (pre-CAP reform), relative to 2000 EU-15 Cattle New Member States Pigs Chicken Animal numbers (pre-CAP reform), relative to 2000 EU-15 Cattle New Member States Pigs Chicken Other animals

SO 2 emissions SO 2 emissions

Comparison of 2000 SO 2 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates Comparison of 2000 SO 2 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

SO 2 emissions • Measures: – – – Large Combustion Plant Directive S Content SO 2 emissions • Measures: – – – Large Combustion Plant Directive S Content of Liquid Fuels Directives on quality of petrol and diesel fuels IPPC legislation on process sources National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

SO 2 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] No further climate measures With climate measures SO 2 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] No further climate measures With climate measures x-------- Power generation Industry Households x-------- NEC Ceiling 3850 kt Transport Process emissions "Climate bonus"

SO 2 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] No further climate measures With SO 2 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] No further climate measures With climate measures x-------- Power generation Industry Households x-------- NEC Ceiling 2693 kt Transport Process emissions "Climate bonus"

Projected SO 2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15 Projected SO 2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected SO 2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS Projected SO 2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

NOx emissions NOx emissions

Comparison of 2000 NOx inventories RAINS vs. national estimates Comparison of 2000 NOx inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

NOx emissions Assumed measures: – – – – LCP Directive Auto/Oil EURO standards Standards NOx emissions Assumed measures: – – – – LCP Directive Auto/Oil EURO standards Standards for motorcycles and mopeds Legislation on non-road mobile machinery Implementation failure of EURO-II and III for HDT IPPC legislation on process sources National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

NOx emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] No further climate measures With climate measures x-------- NOx emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] No further climate measures With climate measures x-------- NEC Ceiling 6519 kt x-------- Power generation Industry Households Transport Process emissions "Climate bonus"

NOx emissions by sector New Member States [kt] No further climate measures x-------- Power NOx emissions by sector New Member States [kt] No further climate measures x-------- Power generation Industry Households With climate measures Transport x-------- NEC Ceiling 1800 kt Process emissions "Climate bonus"

Projected NOx emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15 Projected NOx emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected NOx emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS Projected NOx emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

Emissions from shipping [% of land-based EU-25 emissions] Emissions from shipping [% of land-based EU-25 emissions]

VOC emissions VOC emissions

Comparison of 2000 VOC inventories RAINS vs. national estimates Comparison of 2000 VOC inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

VOC emissions • Assumed measures: – – – – Stage I Directive 91/441 (carbon VOC emissions • Assumed measures: – – – – Stage I Directive 91/441 (carbon canisters) Auto/Oil EURO standards Fuel Directive (RVP of fuels) Solvents Directive Product Directive (paints) National legislation, e. g. , Stage II

VOC emissions EU-15 [kt] 10000 8000 x-------- NEC Ceiling 6510 kt 6000 4000 2000 VOC emissions EU-15 [kt] 10000 8000 x-------- NEC Ceiling 6510 kt 6000 4000 2000 Stationary combustion 2005 Mobile sources 2010 Fuel extraction+distribution 2015 Industrial processes 2020 Solvents

VOC emissions New Member States [kt] x-------- NEC Ceiling 1640 kt VOC emissions New Member States [kt] x-------- NEC Ceiling 1640 kt

Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15 Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

NH 3 emissions NH 3 emissions

Comparison of 2000 NH 3 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates Comparison of 2000 NH 3 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

NH 3 emissions Assumed measures: – No EU-wide legislation – National legislations – Current NH 3 emissions Assumed measures: – No EU-wide legislation – National legislations – Current practice

NH 3 emissions EU-15 [kt] x-------- NEC Ceiling 3310 kt NH 3 emissions EU-15 [kt] x-------- NEC Ceiling 3310 kt

NH 3 emissions New Member States [kt] x-------- NEC Ceiling 866 kt NH 3 emissions New Member States [kt] x-------- NEC Ceiling 866 kt

Projected NH 3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15 Projected NH 3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

Projected NH 3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS Projected NH 3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

PM 2. 5 emissions PM 2. 5 emissions

Comparison of 2000 PM 2. 5 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates Comparison of 2000 PM 2. 5 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

PM 10 emissions • Assumed measures: – – – LCP Directive Auto/Oil EURO standards PM 10 emissions • Assumed measures: – – – LCP Directive Auto/Oil EURO standards Standards for motorcycles and mopeds Legislation on non-road mobile machinery IPPC legislation on process sources National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

Primary PM 2. 5 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] No further climate measures Power Primary PM 2. 5 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] No further climate measures Power generation Industry Households With climate measures Transport Process emissions Waste+agriculture

Primary PM 2. 5 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] No further climate Primary PM 2. 5 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] No further climate measures Power generation Industry Households With climate measures Transport Process emissions Waste+agriculture

Draft conclusions • General downwards trend in emissions caused by – Legislation on transport Draft conclusions • General downwards trend in emissions caused by – Legislation on transport emissions – Further penetration of natural gas – Large Combustion Plant Directive • Larger improvements in New Member States • Caveats: – National energy projections might differ from PRIMES – Further validation of emission estimates necessary – More information on effects of transport emission legislation required

Air quality impacts Provisional estimates! Air quality impacts Provisional estimates!

PM 2. 5 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources PM 2. 5 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources (soil, sea salt, biogenic, etc. ) included! Rural concentrations Annual mean Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

Anthropogenic contribution to PM 2. 5 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m Anthropogenic contribution to PM 2. 5 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2020, no further climate measures, Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003, EMEP Eulerian model

Loss in life expectancy Loss in life expectancy

Loss in life expectancy due to PM 2. 5 Inter-annual meteorological variability 2003 Mean Loss in life expectancy due to PM 2. 5 Inter-annual meteorological variability 2003 Mean Loss in average life expectancy (days) Due to identified anthropogenic PM 2. 5 Emissions of 2000 1999

Loss in life expectancy 2000 2010 Loss in average life expectancy due to identified Loss in life expectancy 2000 2010 Loss in average life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM 2. 5 (days) Mean meteorology 2020

PM 10 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources (soil, PM 10 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources (soil, sea salt, etc. ) included! Rural concentrations Annual mean Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

Anthropogenic contribution to PM 10 2000 Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3] from known Anthropogenic contribution to PM 10 2000 Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2000 Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

Anthropogenic contribution to PM 10 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3] Anthropogenic contribution to PM 10 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

Ozone AOT 40 Six months (April-September) Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology Ozone AOT 40 Six months (April-September) Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

AOT 40 2000 AOT 40 (ppm. hours) Emissions for 2000 Average 1999 & 2003 AOT 40 2000 AOT 40 (ppm. hours) Emissions for 2000 Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W

AOT 40 2000 2010 Six months AOT 40 (forests) [ppm. hours] Emissions for the AOT 40 2000 2010 Six months AOT 40 (forests) [ppm. hours] Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 2020

Ozone AOT 60 Six months (April-September) Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology Ozone AOT 60 Six months (April-September) Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

AOT 60 (ppm. hours) 2000 2010 Mean meteorology, April-September 2020 AOT 60 (ppm. hours) 2000 2010 Mean meteorology, April-September 2020

Acidification of forest soils Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Acidification of forest soils Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

Excess of forest critical loads 2000, Provisional estimates! Percentage of forest area with acid Excess of forest critical loads 2000, Provisional estimates! Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Emissions for 2000 Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W & CCE

Excess of forest critical loads 2000 2010 2020 Percentage of forest area with acid Excess of forest critical loads 2000 2010 2020 Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, mean meteorology