Market Analysis for Housing The Subdivision Wayne Foss,

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Market Analysis for Housing The Subdivision Wayne Foss, DBA, MAI, CRE, FRICS Foss Consulting Group Email:Market Analysis for Housing The Subdivision Wayne Foss, DBA, MAI, CRE, FRICS Foss Consulting Group Email: wfoss@fossconsult. com

2 The Economic Overview Essential to proper analysis of highest and best use Provides data that2 The Economic Overview Essential to proper analysis of highest and best use Provides data that describes the local economy must relate to economic and demographic trends that affect the use and value of properties in the same category

3 Six Step Analysis Step 1: Property Productivity Analysis Analyze Subject Attributes Physical and Legal Analyze3 Six Step Analysis Step 1: Property Productivity Analysis Analyze Subject Attributes Physical and Legal Analyze Locational Attributes Land Use Trends Linkage and Land Use Patterns Growth Trends (rate, type, direction)

4 Six Step Analysis Step 2:  Market Delineation identify the geographic market study area the4 Six Step Analysis Step 2: Market Delineation identify the geographic market study area the area from which data used in the demand forecast will come analyze consumer profile of most likely users of subject-type housing attributes this type of purchaser (renter) desires.

5 Six Step Analysis Step 3:  Forecast Demand Analyze current and forecast population Calculate Population5 Six Step Analysis Step 3: Forecast Demand Analyze current and forecast population Calculate Population Change Estimate Average household size Estimate number of new households in the subject’s market area for the projection period Segment total new demand by housing type Segment total new demand by ability to pay Estimate total new demand for subject housing

6 Six Step Analysis Step 4:  Inventory and Forecast Competitive Supply Inventory Existing Supply Proposed6 Six Step Analysis Step 4: Inventory and Forecast Competitive Supply Inventory Existing Supply Proposed and permitted supply Potential Supply Forecast new Competitive Subdivisions (apartments)

7 Six Step Analysis Step 5:  Interaction of Demand Supply Residual Demand Analysis Subtract total7 Six Step Analysis Step 5: Interaction of Demand Supply Residual Demand Analysis Subtract total existing supply from total new demand Divide residual demand by annual, new demand to estimate period (time) required for existing supply to be absorbed Step 6: Capture Analysis Estimate subject’s capture and absorption potential

8 An Example Owner Occupied Housing 8 An Example Owner Occupied Housing

9 Property Productivity Analysis Plan No. Living Area (Sq. Ft. ) Number Stories Total Rooms Bedrooms9 Property Productivity Analysis Plan No. Living Area (Sq. Ft. ) Number Stories Total Rooms Bedrooms & Baths Production Total 1 2, 922 2 8 4/3 2 2 3, 122 1 8 4/3 2 3 3, 466 2 9 5/4 4 Project Development Breakdown AP Number Address Lot Number Lot Size (SF) 281 -101 -11 1301 Glen View Drive 1 20, 028 281 -10 1311 Glen View Drive 2 19, 994 281 -101 -09 1319 Glen View Drive 3 19, 994 281 -101 -08 1325 Glen View Drive 4 34, 412 281 -101 -15 1320 Glen View Drive 5 34, 325 281 -101 -14 1316 Glen View Drive 6 19, 994 281 -101 -13 1308 Glen View Drive 7 19, 994 281 -101 -12 1300 Glen View Drive 8 20, 038 Physical Characteristics of the Land

10 Area Map 10 Area Map

11 Assessors Parcel Map 11 Assessors Parcel Map

12 Market Delineation Area 1990 1996  Chg. 2006  Chg. Orange County 2, 410, 55612 Market Delineation Area 1990 1996 % Chg. 2006 % Chg. Orange County 2, 410, 556 2, 581, 641 1. 15% 2, 823, 920 0. 90% Fullerton 114, 144 118, 642 0. 65% 124, 320 0. 47% Sunny Hills Estates 8, 946 8, 640 -0. 58% 8, 022 -0. 74%Population Growth Characteristics 198019962006 <21 Orange County 32. 2%29. 5%29. 4%28. 5% Fullerton 31. 1%28. 3%27. 8% Sunny Hills Estates 32. 0%24. 4%24. 3%23. 7% 21 -44 Orange County 39. 2%43. 2%41. 2%36. 9% Fullerton 39. 6%42. 4%40. 1%35. 9% Sunny Hills Estates 32. 2%30. 8%30. 3%28. 7% 45 -64 Orange County 19. 2%18. 1%20. 0%25. 2% Fullerton 21. 4%19. 2%21. 1%26. 1% Sunny Hills Estates 27. 5%28. 2%29. 1%28. 7% 65+ Orange County 8. 4%9. 2%9. 4% Fullerton 7. 9%10. 3%10. 5%10. 2% Sunny Hills Estates 8. 3%16. 6%16. 3%14. 8% Population Age Distribution

13 Market Delineation 1980 1996 2006 Orange County 2. 78 2. 87 2. 93 3. 0913 Market Delineation 1980 1996 2006 Orange County 2. 78 2. 87 2. 93 3. 09 Fullerton 2. 64 2. 74 2. 82 3. 01 Sunny Hills Estates 2. 98 2. 78 2. 85 1980 1996 2006 Orange County 17. 6% 45. 3% 57. 3% 76. 8% Fullerton 17. 0% 40. 2% 54. 3% 74. 7% Sunny Hills Estates 39. 7% 66. 8% 69. 0% 81. 7%Average Household Size Average Household Income > $50,

14 Market Delineation Total Units Pctg. Units 1 Unit detached & attached 20, 726 92. 014 Market Delineation Total Units Pctg. Units 1 Unit detached & attached 20, 726 92. 0% 4, 244 23. 1% 24, 970 greater than 1 Unit 1, 796 8. 0% 14, 106 76. 9% 15, 902 Total: 22, 522 100. 0% 18, 350 100. 0% 40, 872 Total Units Pctg. Units Owner Occupancy 20, 726 83. 0% 1, 796 11. 3% 22, 522 Rental Occupancy 4, 244 17. 0% 14, 106 88. 7% 18, 350 Total: 24, 970 100. 0% 15, 902 100. 0% 40, 872 Source: 1990 Census 1 Unit detached & greater than 1 Unit. Allocation of Total Housing by De mand Type Owner Occupancy Rental Occupancy

15 Market Delineation Units Pctg. Owner Occupancy 22, 522 55. 1 Renter Occupancy 18, 350 44.15 Market Delineation Units Pctg. Owner Occupancy 22, 522 55. 1% Renter Occupancy 18, 350 44. 9% Total: 40, 872 Vacant 2, 087 4. 9% Grand Total: 42, 959 Owner Versus Renter Occupied Units Te nure

16 Forecast Demand Analyze current and forecast population Calculate Population Change Estimate Average household size Estimate16 Forecast Demand Analyze current and forecast population Calculate Population Change Estimate Average household size Estimate number of new households in the subject’s market area for the projection period. Population (Year 0)118, 642 Population (Year 1)-118, 998 Change½ =½ 356 Persons per Household¸ 2. 80 Number of Households=

17 Forecast Demand, con’t Segment total new demand by housing type Segment total new demand by17 Forecast Demand, con’t Segment total new demand by housing type Segment total new demand by ability to pay Estimate total new demand for subject housing. Percentage of Owner Occupied Householdsx 55. 0% Demand for Owner Occupied Dwellings=70 Plus Normal Vacancy 3. 0%2 Total Demand for Owner Occupied Dwellings=72 Affordability Percentagex 15. 0% Demand in Price Cohort=

18 Forecast Demand, con’t Segment total new demand by ability to pay Typical Home Value 450,18 Forecast Demand, con’t Segment total new demand by ability to pay Typical Home Value 450, 000$ Loan to Value Ratio 80. 0% Mortgage Loan 360, 000$ Loan Terms 7 3/4%, Monthly Pmt, 30 Year Term Mortgage Constant 8. 597% Loan Payment Per Year 30, 949$ Real Estate Taxes 4, 950$ Insurance 500$ Total PITI 36, 399$ Underwriting Gross Income Ratio 33. 0% Necessary Minimum Gross Annual Income 110, 300$ Affordability $150, 000 10. 6%Hous e hold Income Distribution

19 Inventory and Forecast Competitive Supply Proposed and permitted supply Potential Supply Forecast new Competitive Subdivisions19 Inventory and Forecast Competitive Supply Proposed and permitted supply Potential Supply Forecast new Competitive Subdivisions (apartments) New Competitve Supply +

20 Interaction of Demand Supply  and Capture Analysis Residual Demand Analysis Subtract total existing supply20 Interaction of Demand Supply and Capture Analysis Residual Demand Analysis Subtract total existing supply from total new demand Divide residual demand by annual, new demand to estimate period (time) required for existing supply to be absorbed Estimate subject’s capture and absorption potential. Net (Excess)/Shortage=11 Capture Percentagex 100. 0% Estimated Total Subject Capture=

21 Population (Year 0)118, 642 Population (Year 1)-118, 998 Change½ =½ 356 Persons per Household¸ 2.21 Population (Year 0)118, 642 Population (Year 1)-118, 998 Change½ =½ 356 Persons per Household¸ 2. 80 Number of Households=127 Percentage of Owner Occupied Householdsx 55. 0% Demand for Owner Occupied Dwellings=70 Plus Normal Vacancy 3. 0%2 Total Demand for Owner Occupied Dwellings=72 Affordability Percentagex 15. 0% Demand in Price Cohort=11 New Competitve Supply+0 Net (Excess)/Shortage=11 Capture Percentagex 100. 0% Estimated Total Subject Capture=11 Housing De mand & Supply M ode l

22 So That’s - - - Market Analysis for Housing Wayne Foss, DBA, MAI, CRE, FRICS,22 So That’s — — — Market Analysis for Housing Wayne Foss, DBA, MAI, CRE, FRICS, Fullerton, CA USA Email: waynefoss@usa. net