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Management of Transaction Exposure 13 Chapter Thirteen Chapter Objective: • This chapter discusses various Management of Transaction Exposure 13 Chapter Thirteen Chapter Objective: • This chapter discusses various methods available for the management of transaction exposure facing multinational firms. Chapter Outline w w w w w Forward Market Hedge, Money Market Hedge, Options Market Hedge Cross-Hedging Minor Currency Exposure Hedging Contingent Exposure Hedging Recurrent Exposure with Swap Contracts Hedging Through Invoice Currency Hedging via Lead and Lag Exposure Netting Should the Firm Hedge? What Risk Management Products do Firms Use? 1

Transaction Exposure w The sensitivity - due to unexpected changes in exchange rates - Transaction Exposure w The sensitivity - due to unexpected changes in exchange rates - of the domestic currency value of a firm’s contractual cash flows that are denominated in foreign currencies. w Unlike economic exposure, transaction exposure is well-defined, transaction-specific and short-term. w When transaction exposure exists, the firm faces three major tasks: Identify its degree of transaction exposure, Decide whether to hedge its exposure, and Choose among the available hedging techniques if it decides on hedging. 2

Unhedged Position w Future FX Receipt n n Today: do nothing FX receipt date: Unhedged Position w Future FX Receipt n n Today: do nothing FX receipt date: sell FX at that day’s spot rate w Future FX Payment n n Today: do nothing FX payment date: buy FX at that day’s spot rate • In either case, company assumes FX risk 3

Forward Market Hedge w If you are going to owe foreign currency in the Forward Market Hedge w If you are going to owe foreign currency in the future, agree to buy the foreign currency now by entering into long position in a forward contract. w If you are going to receive foreign currency in the future, agree to sell the foreign currency now by entering into short position in a forward contract. w Example: You are a Canadian importer of British woolens and have just ordered next year’s inventory. Payment of £ 100 M is due in one year. w Question: How can you fix the cash outflow in dollars? l Answer: One way is to put yourself in a position that delivers £ 100 M in one year—a long forward contract on the pound. 4

FX Exposure is not hedged Suppose the forward exchange rate is $1. 50/£. If FX Exposure is not hedged Suppose the forward exchange rate is $1. 50/£. If he does not hedge the £ 100 m payable, in one year his gain (loss) on the unhedged position is shown in green. $30 m The importer will be better off if the pound depreciates: he still buys £ 100 m but at an exchange rate of only $1. 20/£ he saves $30 million relative to $1. 50/£ $0 $1. 20/£ $1. 50/£ Value of £ 1 in $ in one year $1. 80/£ –$30 m But he will be worse off if the pound appreciates. Unhedged payable 5

Forward Market Hedge If he agrees to buy £ 100 m in one year Forward Market Hedge If he agrees to buy £ 100 m in one year at $1. 50/£ his gain (loss) on the forward are shown in blue. $30 m If you agree to buy £ 100 million at a price of $1. 50 per pound, you will make $30 million if the price of a pound reaches $1. 80. $0 $1. 20/£ $1. 50/£ $1. 80/£ –$30 m Long forward Value of £ 1 in $ in one year If you agree to buy £ 100 million at a price of $1. 50 per pound, you will lose $30 million if the price of a pound is only $1. 20. 6

Forward Hedge Summary w Future FX Receipt n n Today: Sell FX forward @ Forward Hedge Summary w Future FX Receipt n n Today: Sell FX forward @ prevailing forward rate FX receipt date: l Receive FX l Sell FX from receipt for domestic currency at the contracted forward rate w Future FX Payment n n Today: Buy FX forward @ prevailing forward rate FX payment date: l l Purchase FX with domestic currency at the contracted forward rate Receive FX from forward contract to cover FX payment • In either case, company eliminates FX risk 7

Futures Hedge w Currency Futures contract could also be considered, but would have two Futures Hedge w Currency Futures contract could also be considered, but would have two disadvantages over a forward contract. 1. 2. 8

Money Market Hedge w This is the same idea as covered interest arbitrage. w Money Market Hedge w This is the same idea as covered interest arbitrage. w To hedge a foreign currency payable, buy a bunch of that foreign currency today and sit on it. n n n It’s more efficient to buy the present value of the foreign currency payable today. Invest that amount at the foreign rate. At maturity your investment will have grown enough to cover your foreign currency payable. 9

Money Market Hedge The importer of British woolens can hedge his £ 100 million Money Market Hedge The importer of British woolens can hedge his £ 100 million payable with a money market hedge. The following rates are given Spot exchange rate 360 -day forward rate S($/£) = $1. 25/£ F 360($/£) = $1. 20/£ Canadian discount rate i$ = 7. 10% British discount rate i£ = 11. 56% 1. Borrow $112. 05 million in Canada 2. Translate $112. 05 million into pounds at the spot rate S($/£) = $1. 25/£ 3. Invest £ 89. 64 million in the UK at i£ = 11. 56% for one year. In one year the investment will have grown to £ 100 million. 10

Money Market Hedge Where do the numbers come from? We owe our supplier £ Money Market Hedge Where do the numbers come from? We owe our supplier £ 100 million in one year—so we know that we need to have an investment with a future value of £ 100 million. Since i£ = 11. 56% we need to invest £ 89. 64 million at the start of the year: £ 100 £ 89. 64 = 1. 1156 How many dollars will it take to acquire £ 89. 64 million at the start of the year if the spot rate S($/£) = $1. 25/£? $1. 25 $112. 05 = £ 89. 64 × £ 1. 00 If we borrow $112. 05 today one year later we will owe $120 in one year: $120 = $112. 05×(1. 071) With this money market hedge, we have redenominated our £ 100 payable into a $120 payable. 11

Money Market Hedge Summary w Future FX Receipt n n Today: Borrow PV of Money Market Hedge Summary w Future FX Receipt n n Today: Borrow PV of FX receipt, exchange for domestic currency @ spot, invest domestically FX receipt date: Repay FX loan with FX receipt, close out domestic investment w Future FX Payment n n Today: Purchase PV of FX payment @ spot using borrowed domestic currency, lend (or invest) the purchased FX FX payment date: Receive FX as repayment of lending (or investment), use it to make FX payment, repay domestic currency loan • In either case, company eliminates FX risk, cost of hedge determined by interest rates 12

Options Market Hedge w Options provide a flexible hedge against the downside, while preserving Options Market Hedge w Options provide a flexible hedge against the downside, while preserving the upside potential. w To hedge a foreign currency payable buy calls on the currency. n If the currency appreciates, your call option lets you buy the currency at the exercise price of the call. w To hedge a foreign currency receivable buy puts on the currency. n If the currency depreciates, your put option lets you sell the currency for the exercise price. 13

Options Markets Hedge Suppose our importer buys a call option on £ 100 m Options Markets Hedge Suppose our importer buys a call option on £ 100 m with an exercise price of $1. 50 per pound. Profit Long call on £ 100 m –$5 m $1. 55 /£ $1. 50/£ He pays $. 05 per pound for the call. Value of £ 1 in $ in one year loss 14

Options Markets Hedge The payoff of the Profit portfolio of a call and a Options Markets Hedge The payoff of the Profit portfolio of a call and a payable is shown in red. He can still profit $25 m from decreases in the exchange rate below $1. 45/£ but has a hedge –$5 m against unfavorable increases in the exchange rate. loss Long call on £ 100 m $1. 20/£ $1. 45 /£ $1. 50/£ Value of £ 1 in $ in one year Unhedged payable 15

Options Hedge -Summary w Future FX Receipt n n w Future FX Payment Today: Options Hedge -Summary w Future FX Receipt n n w Future FX Payment Today: Buy put option to sell FX at FX receipt date at desired exercise price FX receipt date: If (SX) Do not exercise the put option. Sell FX received at that day’s spot rate. n n Today: Buy call option to buy FX at FX payment date at desired exercise price FX payment date: If (SX) Exercise the call option, buy FX at the exercise price. Only hedge that allows firm to participate in favorable exchange rate movements, n. Only effective hedge for a contingent exposure n 16

Cross-Hedging Minor Currency Exposure w It is difficult, expensive, or impossible to use financial Cross-Hedging Minor Currency Exposure w It is difficult, expensive, or impossible to use financial contracts to hedge exposure to minor currencies. w Cross-Hedging involves hedging a position in one asset by taking a position in another (highly correlated) asset. w The effectiveness of cross-hedging depends upon how well the assets are correlated. n Example: Use a Yen contract to cross-hedge Korean won currency risk (AR in won for a Canadian firm), assuming that the Yen/Won correlation is high. w Another type of cross-hedging is commodity-currency hedging, e. g. using oil futures contracts to hedge Mexican peso, or soybean or coffee futures to hedge Brazilian real. Works when a commodity futures prices move closely with an ex-rate. n Example: Brazil exports coffee to U. S. Dollar appreciates, real depreciates, dollar price of coffee futures falls on CME. Use coffee futures to hedge risk of real depreciating. 17

Hedging Contingent Exposure w If only certain contingencies give rise to exposure, then options Hedging Contingent Exposure w If only certain contingencies give rise to exposure, then options can be effective insurance. w For example, if a U. S. firm is bidding on a hydroelectric dam project in Canada, it will need to hedge the Canadian-U. S. dollar exchange rate only if its bid wins the contract. The firm can hedge this contingent risk with options. 18

Hedging Recurrent Exposure with Swap Contracts w Recall that swap contracts can be viewed Hedging Recurrent Exposure with Swap Contracts w Recall that swap contracts can be viewed as a portfolio of forward contracts. w Firms that have recurrent exposure can very likely hedge their exchange risk at a lower cost with swaps than with a program of hedging each exposure as it comes along. w It is also the case that swaps are available in longerterms than futures and forwards. 19

Hedging through Invoice Currency w The firm can shift, share, or diversify: n shift Hedging through Invoice Currency w The firm can shift, share, or diversify: n shift exchange rate risk l n share exchange rate risk l n by invoicing foreign sales in home currency by pro-rating the currency of the invoice between foreign and home currencies diversify exchange rate risk l by using a market basket index 20

Hedging via Lead and Lag w If a currency is appreciating, pay those bills Hedging via Lead and Lag w If a currency is appreciating, pay those bills denominated in that currency early; let customers in that country pay late as long as they are paying in that currency. w If a currency is depreciating, give incentives to customers who owe you in that currency to pay early; pay your obligations denominated in that currency as late as your contracts will allow. w This method is best employed for intra-company payments and receipts such as material costs, rents, royalties, interest and dividends among subsidiaries of the same MNC. 21

Exposure Netting w A multinational firm should not consider deals in isolation, but should Exposure Netting w A multinational firm should not consider deals in isolation, but should focus on hedging the firm as a portfolio of currency positions. As an example, consider a U. S. -based multinational with Korean won receivables and Japanese yen payables. Since the won and the yen tend to move in similar directions against the U. S. dollar, the firm can just wait until these accounts come due and just buy yen with won. n Even if it’s not a perfect hedge, it may be too expensive or impractical to hedge each currency separately. n w Many multinational firms use a reinvoice center. Which is a financial subsidiary that nets out the intrafirm transactions. w Once the residual exposure is determined, then the firm implements hedging. 22

Should the Firm Hedge? w Not everyone agrees that a firm should hedge: n Should the Firm Hedge? w Not everyone agrees that a firm should hedge: n Hedging by the firm may not add to shareholder wealth if the shareholders can manage exposure themselves. In this case FX exposure management at the corporate level is redundant. w What matters in firm valuation is only the systematic risk n n Hedging may not reduce the non-diversifiable risk of the firm. Therefore shareholders who hold a diversified portfolio are not helped when management hedges. So corporate exposure management does not necessarily add to the value of the firm. 23

Should the Firm Hedge? In the presence of market imperfections, the firm should hedge. Should the Firm Hedge? In the presence of market imperfections, the firm should hedge. 1. Information Asymmetry n The managers may have better information than the shareholders about the firm’s exposure position. 2. Differential Transactions Costs n The firm may be able to hedge at better prices than the shareholders. 3. Default Costs n Hedging may reduce the firms cost of capital if it reduces the probability of default. 4. Taxes can be a large market imperfection. n Corporations that face progressive tax rates may find that they pay less in taxes if they can manage earnings by hedging than if they have “boom and bust” cycles in their earnings stream. 24

What Risk Management Products do Firms Use? w Most U. S. firms meet their What Risk Management Products do Firms Use? w Most U. S. firms meet their exchange risk management needs with forward, swap, and options contracts. w The greater the degree of international involvement, the greater the firm’s use of foreign exchange risk management. 25