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Making Aviation Safer: Results of the National Aviation Weather Program’s 10 -Year Goal to Making Aviation Safer: Results of the National Aviation Weather Program’s 10 -Year Goal to Reduce Weather. Related Accidents by 80 Percent Friends/Partners of Aviation Weather October 9, 2008 Jud Stailey, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

2 Overview • Background • Mid-Course Assessment • Final Assessment – – FAR Definitions 2 Overview • Background • Mid-Course Assessment • Final Assessment – – FAR Definitions Hazard Categories Ten-year Trends By Hazard Category Courtesy of Southwest Airlines Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA • Way Ahead Courtesy of NATA © NATA Courtesy of Air Ambulance Specialists, Inc.

Background • NRC – Aviation Weather Services – A Call for Federal Leadership and Background • NRC – Aviation Weather Services – A Call for Federal Leadership and Action – 1995 • White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security – 1997 – Goal: Reduce fatal accidents by 80% in 10 years • National Aviation Weather Program (NAWP) Strategic Plan – 1997 • NAWP Initiatives – 1999 • Programs/Projects – Baseline – 2001 – Update – 2003 – Update – 2004 3

Mid-Course Assessment - 2003 • Included accident data 1996 -2001 • Established trends for Mid-Course Assessment - 2003 • Included accident data 1996 -2001 • Established trends for all weather-related and fatal weather-related accidents • Reviewed status of programs/projects in context of accident trends • Conclusions & Recommendations Significant progress toward 10 -year goal! Focus areas to move forward • Sustaining risk reduction success in general aviation • Further analysis into impact of weather hazards on smaller commercial carriers • Reducing risk from turbulence and convection hazards • Reducing risk from high density altitude • Sustaining investment in programs/projects for near-term improvements • Sustaining investment in R&D to continue longer-term improvements 4

Final Assessment • Received final NTSB accident data through 2006 in Spring 2008 • Final Assessment • Received final NTSB accident data through 2006 in Spring 2008 • Analysis of the full ten years using same approach used in the Mid. Course Assessment 5

Final Assessment Categories of aviation operations were considered separately: • Part 91: All aviation Final Assessment Categories of aviation operations were considered separately: • Part 91: All aviation other than military or commercial • Part 121: Major passenger airlines and cargo carriers that fly large transport-category aircraft in revenue service • Part 135: Scheduled passenger service in aircraft with fewer than ten seats and nonscheduled operations—revenue-earning flights in which the departure time, departure location and destination are negotiated with the customer 6

Final Assessment Hazard Categories: • Restricted Visibility and Ceiling (7) • Precipitation (non-icing) (3) Final Assessment Hazard Categories: • Restricted Visibility and Ceiling (7) • Precipitation (non-icing) (3) • Icing Conditions (4) • Turbulence and Convection (17) • Temperature and Lift (6) • En Route and Terminal Winds (4) • Electrical (2) • Airborne solids (2) 7

8 Accident Trends Significant progress in meeting the 10 -year accident reduction goal RATE 8 Accident Trends Significant progress in meeting the 10 -year accident reduction goal RATE TRENDS Wx-related All causes All 33% 17% Fatal 49% 17% Part 121: All 30% 17% Part 135 All 23% 7% Fatal 37% 63% Part 91:

9 Part 91 Aviation, Weather-Related Accidents per 100, 000 Flight-Hours All weather-related accidents Weather-related 9 Part 91 Aviation, Weather-Related Accidents per 100, 000 Flight-Hours All weather-related accidents Weather-related fatal 2. 00 1. 80 Accidents per 100, 000 Flight-Hours 1. 60 2006 goal = 0. 34 2006 trend = 1. 12 1. 40 1. 20 1. 00 0. 80 0. 60 2006 goal = 0. 08 2006 trend = 0. 23 0. 40 0. 20 0. 00 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

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12 Part 91, Trend for Category A, Restricted Visibility and Ceiling Hazards Fatal Accidents 12 Part 91, Trend for Category A, Restricted Visibility and Ceiling Hazards Fatal Accidents All Accidents Weather Factor Cites per 100, 000 Flight-Hours 0. 60 0. 50 2006 goal = 0. 10 2006 trend = 0. 21 0. 40 0. 30 0. 20 2006 goal = 0. 08 2006 trend = 0. 18 0. 10 0. 00 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

13 Part 91, Trend for Category D, Turbulence and Convection Hazards Fatal Accidents All 13 Part 91, Trend for Category D, Turbulence and Convection Hazards Fatal Accidents All Accidents 0. 9 Weather Factor Cites per 100, 000 Flight-Hours 0. 8 0. 7 2006 goal = 0. 15 2006 trend = 0. 41 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 2006 goal = 0. 02 2006 trend = 0. 05 0. 1 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

14 Part 91, Trend for Category F, En Route and Terminal Winds Fatal Accidents 14 Part 91, Trend for Category F, En Route and Terminal Winds Fatal Accidents All Accidents 0. 9 Weather Factor Cites per 100, 000 Flight-Hours 0. 8 0. 7 2006 goal = 0. 16 2006 trend = 0. 47 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 2006 goal = 0. 015 2006 trend = 0. 022 0. 1 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

15 Part 121: Trends for all weather hazards and for turbulence & convection hazards 15 Part 121: Trends for all weather hazards and for turbulence & convection hazards All Turbulence and convection hazards 0. 200 Weather Factor Cites per 100, 000 Departures 0. 180 0. 160 2006 goal = 0. 025 2006 trend = 0. 084 0. 140 0. 120 0. 100 0. 080 0. 060 2006 goal = 0. 023 2006 trend = 0. 077 0. 040 0. 020 0. 000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

The Way Ahead Objective: Sustain progress to date, remove barriers to reducing accident rates The Way Ahead Objective: Sustain progress to date, remove barriers to reducing accident rates further, and provide an effective system for Next. Gen transition. • Continue to collect and analyze annual data • Investigate timing and potential effectiveness of programs/projects in light of trends (including those completed before 1997) • Consider continuing to identify and track programs/ projects 16

17 BACKUP SLIDES 17 BACKUP SLIDES

NTSB Factors and Weather Categories Restricted visibility and ceiling: • Below approach/landing mins • NTSB Factors and Weather Categories Restricted visibility and ceiling: • Below approach/landing mins • Clouds • Fog • Haze/smoke • Low ceiling • Obscuration • Whiteout Precipitation (non-icing): • Rain • Snow • Drizzle/mist Icing conditions: • Icing conditions • Ice fog • Freezing rain • Carburetor icing Turbulence and convection: • Turbulence (thunderstorm) • Thunderstorm outflow • Microburst (dry) • Microburst (wet) • Updraft • Downdraft • Gusts • Wind shear • Dust Devil/Whirlwind • Variable wind • Sudden wind shift • Mountain Wave • Turbulence, clear air • Turbulence in clouds • Turbulence (terrain induced) 18

NTSB Factors and Weather Categories (Cont’d) Temperature and lift: • Temperature inversion • High NTSB Factors and Weather Categories (Cont’d) Temperature and lift: • Temperature inversion • High density altitude • Temperature, high • Temperature, low • Thermal lift • No thermal lift En route and terminal winds: • Unfavorable wind • Crosswind • Tail wind • High wind Electrical: • Lightning • Static discharge Airborne solids: • Sand/dust storm • Hail 19

20 National Aviation Weather Program 1997 1998 1999 2000 Initiatives 2002 Mid-Course Assessment User 20 National Aviation Weather Program 1997 1998 1999 2000 Initiatives 2002 Mid-Course Assessment User Forum Strat Plan 2001 Training 2003 2004 Programs & Projects Update Volc Ash Conference

NBAA Weather Panel Orlando, Florida October 9, 2008 Steve Hansen National Air Traffic Controllers NBAA Weather Panel Orlando, Florida October 9, 2008 Steve Hansen National Air Traffic Controllers Association 1325 Massachusetts Ave NW Washington, DC 20005

ATC DUTY PRIORITY Give first priority to separating aircraft and issuing safety alerts as ATC DUTY PRIORITY Give first priority to separating aircraft and issuing safety alerts as required b. Provide support to national security and homeland defense activities c. Provide additional services to the extent possible, contingent only upon higher priority duties and other factors including limitations of radar, volume of traffic, frequency congestion, and workload. a. 22

ATC SERVICE …The provision of additional services (includes weather advisories) is not optional on ATC SERVICE …The provision of additional services (includes weather advisories) is not optional on the part of the controller, but rather is required when the work situation permits… 23

ATC Requirements Issue pertinent information on observed or reported weather. l Provide radar navigational ATC Requirements Issue pertinent information on observed or reported weather. l Provide radar navigational guidance and/or approve deviations around weather or chaff areas when requested by the pilot. l Issue the level of echo intensity when that information is available. l When a deviation cannot be approved as requested and the situation permits, suggest an alternative course of action. l 24

Important Things to Remember l Any additional service, such as weather avoidance assistance, can Important Things to Remember l Any additional service, such as weather avoidance assistance, can only be provided to the extent that it does not take away from ATC’s primary function of providing safe separation between aircraft. l To a large degree, the assistance that might be rendered by ATC will depend upon the weather information available to controllers. Due to the extremely transitory nature of severe weather situations, the controller's weather information may be of only limited value if based on weather observed on radar only. l Frequent updates by pilots giving specific information as to the area affected, altitudes, intensity and nature of the severe weather can be of considerable value. 25

Keys to Dealing With ATC l Controllers want YOU to avoid weather l Do Keys to Dealing With ATC l Controllers want YOU to avoid weather l Do not assume ATC will automatically keep you clear of weather l l Depending on aircraft type, controller may assume you have weather radar Ask EACH controller about weather avoidance services 26

ATC Terms & Phraseology l “Precipitation” - used to describe radar derived weather information ATC Terms & Phraseology l “Precipitation” - used to describe radar derived weather information LIGHT, MODERATE, HEAVY, EXTREME l ENROUTE – MODERATE, HEAVY, EXTREME l l "Heavy to Extreme precipitation between ten o'clock and two o'clock, one five miles. Precipitation area is two five miles in diameter. " 27

ATC Terms & Phraseology Correct Phraseology: l “Deviation approved, up to 15 degrees right ATC Terms & Phraseology Correct Phraseology: l “Deviation approved, up to 15 degrees right of course, advise when able to proceed direct XXX. ” Phraseology that you often hear: l “Deviation approved, up to 15 degrees right of course, proceed direct XXX when able or when clear of the weather. ” “Direct when able” trap: l Controller gives “proceed direct XXX when able” or “when clear of the weather”, and pilot assumes they are clear of the weather. 28

Thunderstorms l Turbulence l Hail l Rain l Snow l Lightning l Sustained updrafts/downdrafts Thunderstorms l Turbulence l Hail l Rain l Snow l Lightning l Sustained updrafts/downdrafts l Icing 29

ATC and NEXRAD available to ATC, but…. l Different adaptation schemes l Major terminals ATC and NEXRAD available to ATC, but…. l Different adaptation schemes l Major terminals integrate NEXRAD –more colors than centers l Centers integrate NEXRAD – three colors l Flight Service Stations use NEXRAD, but use pilot reports for position and planned route 30

NEXRAD Sites 31 NEXRAD Sites 31

CONUS NEXRAD Coverage 32 CONUS NEXRAD Coverage 32

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ATC Weather Displays Only show precipitation l Weather updates are 5 to 8 minutes ATC Weather Displays Only show precipitation l Weather updates are 5 to 8 minutes old l Approach control displays l STARS is digital – NEXRAD is integrated l Old CRT’s with primary WX l Center display l DSR is digital – NEXRAD is integrated l 34

ENROUTE WX Display 35 ENROUTE WX Display 35

Terminal WX Display (STARS) Courtesy of Raytheon 36 Terminal WX Display (STARS) Courtesy of Raytheon 36

ITWS (Integrated Terminal WX System) Courtesy of Raytheon 37 ITWS (Integrated Terminal WX System) Courtesy of Raytheon 37

PIREPS – An Important Tool PIREPS are used to develop hazardous WX avoidance plans, PIREPS – An Important Tool PIREPS are used to develop hazardous WX avoidance plans, and to assist ATC in providing a safe expeditious flow of air traffic. FAA air traffic facilities are required to solicit PIREPs when the following conditions are reported or forecast: l l l l Ceilings at or below 5, 000 Visibility at or below 5 miles Thunderstorms and related phenomena Icing of light degree or greater Turbulence of moderate degree or greater Wind shear Reported or forecast volcanic ash clouds. 38

l “Safety breakdowns are the product of good people trying to make sense of l “Safety breakdowns are the product of good people trying to make sense of an operationally confusing context, rather than the product of bad people making errors…. ” l Bert Ruitenberg IFATCA Human Factor Specialist 39

Summary l l l Radar available to ATC can only “see” precipitation ATC guidance Summary l l l Radar available to ATC can only “see” precipitation ATC guidance for WX avoidance – vague at best Some controllers provide better WX info than others – expect inconsistency NEVER assume controllers are providing WX avoidance services – ask each controller! Worse case scenario: You think ATC is providing WX avoidance services at the same time ATC thinks you are avoiding WX on your own – in fact NOBODY IS!!! 40