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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS. THE PHILIPPINES. PART 3: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS. THE PHILIPPINES. PART 3: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE THE PHILIPPINES’ COMMUNITIES AT RISK EARTHQUAKES GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE ENACT NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE THE PHILIPPINES’ COMMUNITIES AT RISK EARTHQUAKES GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE TYPHOONS FLOODS LANDSLIDES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

VOLCANO RISK • VOLCANO HAZARDS • BLDG. INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION DATA BASES VOLCANO RISK • VOLCANO HAZARDS • BLDG. INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK PHILIPPINES’ GOAL: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE COMMUNITIES POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS • PREPAREDNESS • PROTECTION • EARLY WARNING • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

THE KEYS TO RESILIENCE: 1) KNOW THE ERUPTIVE HISTORY OF YOUR REGION’S VOLCANOES, 2) THE KEYS TO RESILIENCE: 1) KNOW THE ERUPTIVE HISTORY OF YOUR REGION’S VOLCANOES, 2) BE PREPARED 3) HAVE A WARNING SYSTEM 4) EVACUATE 5) LEARN FROM THE EXPERIENCE AND START OVER

CAUSES OF RISK LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CASE HISTORIES VOLCANIC CAUSES OF RISK LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CASE HISTORIES VOLCANIC ASH LAVA FLOWS LAHARS TOXIC GASES

THE PHILIPPINE PLATE THE PHILIPPINE PLATE

VOLCANOES HAVE ERUPTED VIOLENTLY IN THE PHILIPPINES AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX INTERACTIONS OF VOLCANOES HAVE ERUPTED VIOLENTLY IN THE PHILIPPINES AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX INTERACTIONS OF THE PHILIPPINE AND EURASIAN PLATES

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1, 500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1, 500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

http: //www. cia. gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/rp. html http: //www. cia. gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/rp. html

LUZON VOLCANIC ARC Chain of subduction volcanoes on the west side of the Philippine LUZON VOLCANIC ARC Chain of subduction volcanoes on the west side of the Philippine island of Luzon, including Mount Pinatubo red triangles = volcanoes active in the last 10, 000 years

Major Volcanoes in the Philippines http: //vulcan. wr. usgs. gov/Volcanoes/Philippines/Maps/map_philippines_volcanoes. html Major Volcanoes in the Philippines http: //vulcan. wr. usgs. gov/Volcanoes/Philippines/Maps/map_philippines_volcanoes. html

MOUNT PINATUBO FACTS • Pinatubo is a stratovolcano, a volcano comprised of layers of MOUNT PINATUBO FACTS • Pinatubo is a stratovolcano, a volcano comprised of layers of lava flows and pyroclastic material that gradually accumulated over time. http: //volcano. und. nodak. edu/vwdocs/volc_images/southeast_asia/philippines/pinatubo. html

ANCIENT MOUNT PINATUBO Ancestral Pinatubo was an andesite and dacite stratovolcano whose center was ANCIENT MOUNT PINATUBO Ancestral Pinatubo was an andesite and dacite stratovolcano whose center was in roughly the same location as the modern Pinatubo. http: //volcano. und. nodak. edu/vwdocs/volc_images/southeast_asia/philippines/pinatubo. html

MOUNT PINATUBO FACTS –Before April 2, 1991, volcanologists considered Mount Pinatubo to be an MOUNT PINATUBO FACTS –Before April 2, 1991, volcanologists considered Mount Pinatubo to be an inconspicuous, currently inactive volcano that had once been active a millennium ago. http: //volcano. und. nodak. edu/vwdocs/volc_images/southeast_asia/philippines/pinatubo. html

ERUPTION HISTORY • The largest prior eruption in the history of the modern Pinatubo ERUPTION HISTORY • The largest prior eruption in the history of the modern Pinatubo occurred over 35, 000 years ago. • That eruption distributed over 325 ft (100 m) of pyroclastic flow material on all sides of the volcano, signaling the geologic rebirth of the volcano. http: //volcano. und. nodak. edu/vwdocs/volc_images/southeast_asia/philippines/pinatubo. html

ERUPTION HISTORY. • Radiocarbon ages suggest that eruptions from the modern Pinatubo have been ERUPTION HISTORY. • Radiocarbon ages suggest that eruptions from the modern Pinatubo have been clustered in at least six and possibly as many as a dozen eruption episodes. http: //volcano. und. nodak. edu/vwdocs/volc_images/southeast_asia/philippines/pinatubo. html

MOUNT PINATUBO FACTS –Many people residing in the area, including those in nearby military MOUNT PINATUBO FACTS –Many people residing in the area, including those in nearby military bases, barely knew of Mount Pinatubo at allm a factor that hindered evacuation. http: //volcano. und. nodak. edu/vwdocs/volc_images/southeast_asia/philippines/pinatubo. html

VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS • VERTICAL PLUME (can affect jet aircraft) VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS • VERTICAL PLUME (can affect jet aircraft) • ASH AND TEPHRA • LATERAL BLAST • PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS, BURSTS, AND FLOWS

VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS • LAVA FLOWS • LAHARS (can bury VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS • LAVA FLOWS • LAHARS (can bury villages) • EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava) • “VOLCANIC WINTER” (causing famine and mass extinctions)

THE PHILIPPINES’ MOST NOTABLE VOLCANIC ERUPTION MOUNT PINATUBO JUNE 7, 1991 THE PHILIPPINES’ MOST NOTABLE VOLCANIC ERUPTION MOUNT PINATUBO JUNE 7, 1991

TIME LINE 1 • On July 16, 1990, a 7. 8 magnitude earthquake hit TIME LINE 1 • On July 16, 1990, a 7. 8 magnitude earthquake hit central Luzon. Its epicenter was 100 km NE of Mt. Pinatubo • On March 15, 1991, a series of earthquakes took place on the NW side of Mt. Pinatubo

TIME LINE 2 • The earthquakes continued to increase in intensity for 2 weeks TIME LINE 2 • The earthquakes continued to increase in intensity for 2 weeks • On April 2, 1991, small eruptions began. Hundreds of small earthquakes were recorded every day.

MT. PINATUBO: April 1991 MT. PINATUBO: April 1991

TIME LINE 3 • SO 2 emission increased from 500 tons/day on May 13 TIME LINE 3 • SO 2 emission increased from 500 tons/day on May 13 to 5, 000 tons/day on May 28 • The first magmatic eruptions occurred on June 3

TIME LINE 4 • The first explosion on June 7 generated a column of TIME LINE 4 • The first explosion on June 7 generated a column of ash 7 km high • The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) issued a warning predicting an eruption within 2 weeks

The Eruption of Mount Pinatubo June 15, 1991 Luzon, Philippines The Eruption of Mount Pinatubo June 15, 1991 Luzon, Philippines

SNAPSHOTS IN TIME BEFORE, DURING, AND AFTER THE HISTORIC ERUPTION SNAPSHOTS IN TIME BEFORE, DURING, AND AFTER THE HISTORIC ERUPTION

MOUNT PINATUBO FACTS • Pinatubo had an elevation of 5725 ft (1745 m) above MOUNT PINATUBO FACTS • Pinatubo had an elevation of 5725 ft (1745 m) above sea level before the June 1991 eruption, and an elevation of 5248 ft (1600 m) above sea level after the June 1991 eruption. http: //volcano. und. nodak. edu/vwdocs/volc_images/southeast_asia/philippines/pinatubo. html

EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION FACTS EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION FACTS

EARLY WARNINGS WERE SUCCESSFUL – Warnings issued by PVO (Pinatubo Volcano Observatory) before the EARLY WARNINGS WERE SUCCESSFUL – Warnings issued by PVO (Pinatubo Volcano Observatory) before the eruption succeeded in saving many lives and protecting property. – Warning issued by Civil Defense and local officials saved lives. – Warnings issued by PHILVOCS and USGS led to total evacuation of Clark Air force Base (including aircraft).

EVACUATION • PHIVOLCS and USGS developed three evacuation zones EVACUATION • PHIVOLCS and USGS developed three evacuation zones

EVACUATION ZONES EVACUATION ZONES

EVACUATION • The 10 km and 1020 km zones contained 40, 000 people • EVACUATION • The 10 km and 1020 km zones contained 40, 000 people • The 20 -40 km zone contained 331, 000 people • A volcanic alert system was developed, with daily updates

EVACUATION • Evacuation began: – 10 km zone on April 7 – 10 -20 EVACUATION • Evacuation began: – 10 km zone on April 7 – 10 -20 km zone on June 7 – 20 -40 km zone on June 14

The Climactic Eruption • Large tremors began at 13: 42 on June 15 • The Climactic Eruption • Large tremors began at 13: 42 on June 15 • By 14: 30 all seismographs were inoperative • The most violent phase lasted 3 hours and generated a 34 km high eruption column • The ash cloud covered 50, 000 sq. miles

EVACUATION HAPPENED BEFORE DAY TURNED TO NIGHT n • Wednesday, 8: 15 AM June EVACUATION HAPPENED BEFORE DAY TURNED TO NIGHT n • Wednesday, 8: 15 AM June 12, 1991 :

A 34 -KM-HIGH ERUPTION COLUMN A 34 -KM-HIGH ERUPTION COLUMN

The Climactic Eruption • Typhoon Yunga hit Lazon on the same day, obscuring direct The Climactic Eruption • Typhoon Yunga hit Lazon on the same day, obscuring direct view • The eruption ended 9 hours later at 22: 30

MT. PINATUBO: JUNE 15, 1991 MT. PINATUBO: JUNE 15, 1991

VIEW OF PINATUBO AFTER THE ERUPTION Mount Pinatubo, as seen from Clark Air Base VIEW OF PINATUBO AFTER THE ERUPTION Mount Pinatubo, as seen from Clark Air Base runway

AFTER THE ERUPTION O’Donnell River AFTER THE ERUPTION O’Donnell River

AFTER THE ERUPTION A house by the Sacobia-Bamban River, Bamban, Tarlac, July 23, 1991. AFTER THE ERUPTION A house by the Sacobia-Bamban River, Bamban, Tarlac, July 23, 1991. Nearly 9 m of sediment were deposited during a single lahar event on August 15, 1991 A house by the Sacobia-Bamban River, Bamban, Tarlac, July 23, 1991.

AFTER THE ERUPTION Sacobia Bamban River AFTER THE ERUPTION Sacobia Bamban River

The Climactic Eruption • This was the second largest eruption on Earth in the The Climactic Eruption • This was the second largest eruption on Earth in the 20 th century; Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6 • Expelled: 10 billion tons of magma and 20 billion tons of sulfur dioxide (SO 2)

IMPACTS IMPACTS

LOCAL IMPACTS • In the first three months after the enormous eruption, >200 lahars LOCAL IMPACTS • In the first three months after the enormous eruption, >200 lahars occurred • About 300 people were killed, mostly by roofs collapsing under wet ash • 364 communities and 2. 1 million people were impacted School buried by lahar, Church buried by lahar

LOCAL IMPACTS • >8, 000 homes completely destroyed • Pyroclastic flows filled river valleys LOCAL IMPACTS • >8, 000 homes completely destroyed • Pyroclastic flows filled river valleys with hot volcanic rocks, which killed vegetation and rendered land infertile • The GDP fell by 3% in 1991 • Every rainy season, lahars return School buried by lahar Church buried by lahar

GLOBAL IMPACTS • This was the largest injection of aerosols into the stratosphere ever GLOBAL IMPACTS • This was the largest injection of aerosols into the stratosphere ever recorded by modern instruments SAGE II observations show that aerosols in the tropics increased by almost a factor of 100 immediately following the eruption, spread to the Earth’s mid-latitudes three months later, and slowly decreased over several years.

GLOBAL IMPACTS • Aerosols formed a stratospheric cloud which reduced sunlight reaching the Earth’s GLOBAL IMPACTS • Aerosols formed a stratospheric cloud which reduced sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface by up to 5% for 3 years • Northern hemisphere average temperatures SAGE II observations show that aerosols in the tropics increased by almost a factor of 100 decreased by 0. 5 immediately following the eruption, spread to the Earth’s mid-latitudes three months later, and slowly 0. 6 °C decreased over several years.

SUMMARY • The evacuation effort organized by PHIVOLCS and USGS saved tens of thousands SUMMARY • The evacuation effort organized by PHIVOLCS and USGS saved tens of thousands of lives • This was a great success for volcanology and the prediction of volcanic eruptions • The indigeneous Aeta people were hardest hit; many were relocated permanently • Mt. Pinatubo is now a popular ecotourism destination Mt. Pinatubo, 2013

TOWARDS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FOR VOLCANOES RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITY • COST • EXPOSURE TOWARDS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FOR VOLCANOES RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITY • COST • EXPOSURE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • EVENT EXPECTED LOSS • BENEFIT • CONSEQUENCES POLICY ASSESSMENT POLICY ADOPTION

MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES AND WARNING SYSTEMS ARE A VITAL PART OF SURVIVAL. MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES AND WARNING SYSTEMS ARE A VITAL PART OF SURVIVAL.

MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES. MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES.