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Joint 5 th ASAS TN 2 Workshop & 2 nd FLYSAFE Forum Toulouse, 17 Joint 5 th ASAS TN 2 Workshop & 2 nd FLYSAFE Forum Toulouse, 17 - 19 September 2007 On-board wake prediction & alerting system n Andreas Reinke, AIRBUS n 18 th September 2007

Contents n Background n Wake vortex within FLYSAFE n Objectives of on-board wake prediction Contents n Background n Wake vortex within FLYSAFE n Objectives of on-board wake prediction & alert n Functional description n ADS-B as enabling technology n Application example & relevance for ASAS FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 2 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

Wake Vortex Background n Safe and efficient air transport requires adequate aircraft separation n Wake Vortex Background n Safe and efficient air transport requires adequate aircraft separation n Very few wake encounter accidents to commercial transport aircraft but. . . l. . . severe encounters occur during all phases of flight l. . . number of events could increase in-line with the increase in traffic n Current separation minima assure safety l. . . but do not completely prevent serious incidents under unfavourable conditions l. . . missing wake turbulence separations during cruise flight leave room for wake-induced upsets under very specific conditions (e. g. climb / descend operations with small separations, low turbulence and adverse wind direction) FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 3 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

Wake Vortex Background n Current situation: l Steady increase in traffic density l Need Wake Vortex Background n Current situation: l Steady increase in traffic density l Need to increase runway and airspace capacity l Evolution of aircraft fleet s Increasing aircraft size range s New categories of aircraft (e. g. Very Light Jets) l Inflexible separation system which is possibly overly conservative most of the time but sometimes not enough versus l Emerging new technologies: s New sensors s New data exchange, e. g. ADS-B s Increased processing power s Improved understanding of wake vortex physics FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 4 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

Wake Vortex Background n General objective l Assure safety in line with increasing traffic Wake Vortex Background n General objective l Assure safety in line with increasing traffic density and changing traffic mix by using advanced technologies n Complementary mitigation strategies l Benign vortex aerodynamic design (aircraft design for low vortex signatures) l Improved ATM concepts (e. g. time-based separation, re-categorisation) l Ground-based wake prediction & monitoring systems l On-board wake detection, prediction & alert systems l On-board wake encounter alleviation systems FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 5 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

Wake Vortex within FLYSAFE n WP 2 - Atmospheric hazards l WP 231 - Wake Vortex within FLYSAFE n WP 2 - Atmospheric hazards l WP 231 - On-board wake prediction & alert s Design of airborne Wake Encounter Prevention System for all flight phases as part of Next Generation Integrated Surveillance System s Evaluation of cruise flight phase using piloted simulator tests s Partners: Airbus, Dassault, DLR, Thales, Ts. AGI, UCL l WP 221 Wake vortex weather information management systems (WV WIMS) s En-route mode (global model): Ø Atmospheric data to on-board WV prediction s TMA mode (local models): Ø Atmospheric data to on-board WV prediction Ø Weather, wake and A/C separation parameters to ATC FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 6 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

On-board wake prediction & alert n Objectives of airborne Wake Encounter Prevention System l On-board wake prediction & alert n Objectives of airborne Wake Encounter Prevention System l Prevent severe wake encounters during all phases of flight l Create additional tactical safety layer for s rare cases of inadvertant encounter despite separations according to rule s involuntary loss of safe separation s operations using visual separations l Provide crew with improved situational information l Alert crew with time for educated decision making l Provide crew with instructions for safe avoidance FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 7 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

On-board wake prediction & alert n Functional description l Weather data fusion from own On-board wake prediction & alert n Functional description l Weather data fusion from own & other A/C as well as from WIMS l Prediction of wake location and characteristics l Sensor & Prediction data fusion l Conflict detection l Severity assessment l Provision of information, alerts and guidance FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 8 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

On-board wake prediction & alert n Wake prediction technologies l Model-based computation of wake On-board wake prediction & alert n Wake prediction technologies l Model-based computation of wake location and characteristics s Growing data base of measured vortex characteristics s Sophisticated numerical simulations s Increased confidence of accurate prediction of relevant vortex characteristics even under difficult conditions (e. g. in ground proximity) l Two models under evaluation within FLYSAFE: s Probabilistic Vortex Forecasting System (P-VFS) by UCL Ø Direct application of Monte Carlo Simulation method to simplified linevortex modeling of vortex behaviour in a real-time system s Probabilistic 2 -Phase vortex model (P 2 P) by DLR Ø Trained probability bounds of vortex location and characteristics of two-phase vortex decay model Probabilistic models reflect the stochastic vortex behaviour and the uncertainty of influencing parameters (dynamically) FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 9 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

On-board wake prediction & alert n ADS-B as enabling technology l Wake prediction models On-board wake prediction & alert n ADS-B as enabling technology l Wake prediction models are an alternative or complement to sensors l Quality and accuracy of model-based prediction relies on exchange of relevant data between aircraft s s Meteorological data (e. g. wind, temperature, turbulence) Traffic data (e. g. A/C weight, speed, position) l Provision of intent information allows forecasting (i. e. increasing the alerting horizon, operational relevance and net safety effect) s FLYSAFE Consortium Traffic intent data Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 10 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

On-board wake prediction & alert n ADS-B needs for wake prediction ADS-B „out“ according On-board wake prediction & alert n ADS-B needs for wake prediction ADS-B „out“ according to RTCA DO 242 A - Call sign - Size class - Position - Altitude - Ground speed - Air speed - Heading - Flight path angle - Intend information ADS-B „out“ for improved wake prediction Own aircraft - Gross weight - Wing span - Position - Altitude - Ground speed - Air speed - Heading - Flight path angle - Wind speed - Turbulence - Temperature - Flight plan FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Current ADS-B plus: - Gross weight - Wing span - Turbulence - Temperature - Wind speed - Height above ground WV WIMS - Temperature - Pressure - Stratification - Wind speed - Turbulence Page 11 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

On-board wake prediction & alert n Application example Own A/C receives broadcasted information from On-board wake prediction & alert n Application example Own A/C receives broadcasted information from nearby traffic and - in the TMA ground-based WIMS Traffic - Wind direction & speed - Turbulence - Temperature Current meteorological situation (3 D) is derived from data received Data Broadcast Probable location and characteristics of wakes are calculated Traffic Data Broadcast No conflict is detected for the current situation Own A/C Data Broadcast On demand display of wake locations on ND WIMS (in TMA) FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 12 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

On-board wake prediction & alert n Application example Own A/C receives additional traffic intent On-board wake prediction & alert n Application example Own A/C receives additional traffic intent information from nearby traffic Forecasted situation Traffic - Wind direction & speed - Turbulence - Temperature Probable location and characteristics of future wakes are calculated Data Broadcast Traffic Data Broadcast Own A/C Forecasted situation FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 13 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

On-board wake prediction & alert n Application example - Wind direction & speed - On-board wake prediction & alert n Application example - Wind direction & speed - Turbulence - Temperature Own A/C receives additional traffic intent information from nearby traffic Traffic Probable location and characteristics of future wakes are calculated Entry into volume of probable wake location forecasted Traffic Own A/C Wake encounter is predicted to be severe Alert to crew Instruction for avoidance FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 14 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

Relevance for ASAS n Relevance for ASAS l Future airborne systems may provide timely Relevance for ASAS n Relevance for ASAS l Future airborne systems may provide timely information and alerts about potential severe wake encounters l Avoidance maneuvres due to wake alerts could affect ASAS operations and ASAS recovery/guidance maneuvres could lead to wake vortex alerts l Knowledge of the wake characteristic could be a criterion for ASAS spacing and even help optimising or densifying the separation Consider & evaluate to integrate traffic, terrain & weather (incl. wake vortex) surveillance with ASAS functions to assure coherent guidance and alerting FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 15 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

Conclusions n Conclusions l Severe wake encounters are rare but can occur under very Conclusions n Conclusions l Severe wake encounters are rare but can occur under very specific conditions l Wake encounter prevention functions may become operationally feasible and contribute to enhanced safety and capacity l Availability of mature and capable sensors as well as necessary data link is uncertain l Wake encounter prevention must be regarded as part of wider surveillance function and is likely to interact with ASAS AIRBUS supports advanced technologies like wake encounter prevention systems to provide safety and benefits for our customers FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 16 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

n Thank you for your attention ! l For further questions please contact: Andreas n Thank you for your attention ! l For further questions please contact: Andreas Reinke Stability & Control - Flight Dynamics Andreas. A. [email protected] com Airbus Deutschland Gmb. H Kreetslag 10 21129 Hamburg, Germany l Please visit the FLYSAFE website at: http: //www. eu-flysafe. org FLYSAFE Consortium Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 17 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A

n Abbreviations used: l l l l l A/C ADS-B ASAS ATM DLR FL n Abbreviations used: l l l l l A/C ADS-B ASAS ATM DLR FL ICAO Li. DAR NWP RADAR RTCA TMA UCL VLJ WIMS WP WV FLYSAFE Consortium Aircraft Automated Dependant Surveillance - Broadcast Airborne Separation Assurance System Air Traffic Management Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (German Aerospace Centre) Flight Level International Civil Aviation Organization Light Detection And Ranging Numerical Weather Processor Radio Detection And Ranging Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics Terminal Maneuvering Area Université Catholique de Louvain-la-neuve Very Light Jet Weather Information Management System Work Package Wake Vortex Joint Fifth ASAS-TN 2 Workshop and Second FLYSAFE Forum 17 th to 19 th September, Hotel Mercure Atria, Toulouse Page 18 FLY_073 A-D_MPM_2 nd. Forum_A