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Iraq Ministry of planning and Development Cooperation (Mo. PDC) United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Iraq Population and Housing Census (IPHC 09) Census under Fire and Politicization Dr. Luay SHABANEH, UNFPA-CTA
Census Current Status Joint COSIT-UNFPA Presentation Justifications of Census undertaking Role of UNFPA Progress Challenges Strategy Lessons learned
In wars and conflict since 30 years About 26 -32 million inhabitant Fragile political process Federal government in Baghdad and regional government in KRG Control on boarder is fragile 800, 000 internally displaced 2 -3 million externally displaced Conflict on controlling some areas ID system fragile, registers not exist 16 Governorates, 15, 000 communities And 320, 000 fieldworkers NATIONALL Y Strong leadership for COSIT Ali Baban Minister Mo. PDC High Political support for IPHC 09 Chairman, CNC Mehdi Al-Alak, President of COSIT is credible institution COSIT, Chairman, COR Strongly committed team
Internationally Do. S I I TAB- C MDo. F
Justifications of IPHC Legally: THEREFORE…. . The census should have been launched in 2007 - each 10 years Nationally: Developmentally Launching IPHC is a MUST ASAP Lack of accurate population statistics Irrelevance of 1997 census Population mobility and displacement after 2003 Internationally: Lack of small area statistics for planning Taking the Risk by International Statistically Organizations is very much Justified Lack of sampling frames Inaccurate population projections International Technical and financial Support Politically is rationally placed IPHC 09 is a potential peace making tool Supporting collective effort is much needed
Nationally Owned by Mo. PDC Nationally led by COSIT Internationally Supported by UNFPA Operational Financing is mostly national Financing TA through UNFPA Budget cut by 40% after crisis
Role of UNFPA • UNFPA intervention come in line with Iraq’s NDS 2007 -2010 • UNDG established ITF & mandated item C-23 to UNFPA • The national counterpart at the Iraqi side is COSIT • Development objective: To facilitate availability of data to help seven out of eight goals of MDGs • Immediate objectives: to increase capacity of COSIT, to plan, implement, analyze and disseminate census, and to strengthen the capacity of national partners, to monitor, advocate and communicate census results
Role of UNFPA • O 1: Capacities are increased to plan and implement high quality and internationally recognised population and housing censuses and other large-scale surveys. • O 2: Capacities are enhanced to conduct disaggregated analysis • O 3: Capacities of line Ministries to utilize census data is increased • O 4: Increased compliance of IPHC 09 with international standards
Role of UNFPA was keen to approach this project from capacity building point of view intervention forms • Facilitation for COSIT to reach and conclude the outsourced services and goods • On-job training of Iraqi census team in different fields • Technical backstopping to Iraq team in all census stages • Quality assurance to make sure that outsourced goods and service
gress C Pro is IPH l Bas Lega Completed 1. June 2008, Council of Ministers Decree to Conduct IPHC 2. October 2008, endorsement by Legislative Council 3. November 3, 2008, presidential decree number (32) of IPHC law number (40) for 2008 published in Official Gazette 4. September 2009 – rescheduling of population counting
lans us P Cens ing! ngo O Master Plan - Data collection - Training Plan - Security Plan – completed Data Processing Plan - Dissemination Plan - Publicity Campaign – Quality control Plan – Contingency Plan- ongoing-80% ongoing-30% ongoing-50% ongoing -75% not completed-30%
ools T oing On g Designing Census Tools Questionnaires- Manuals- QC forms. Classifications- Testing - Pilot Census– Cartography completed completed ongoing-70%
tion enta plem ing Im n go O Pre-Testing - Pilot Census– Training of Field Staff Numbering &listing IT environment completed ongoing-80% for 1 st stage 98% completed main Re asks ng T i Re-doing maps Updating Numbering and Listing Population counting
Ris k Ch all en ge D iff icu lty Tra ns fer Ov of erl kn ap Co pe mp ow d b lia -ho nc oa Se e w rde w cu ith rs La rity In un Si t. S ch tua tan ing tio da na n rds tio po nw lit ici ide zin g
Census Politicizing There is high level of politicizing the census in Iraq. The direct reason of politicizing comes from the fact that the legislative council (House of Representatives) linked solving a numbering of political problems with the census results. This includes: 1. distribution of wealth (oil revenues) 2. reconciliation conflicting boarders/counties. Distribution of electoral seats by ethnicity in the mixed counties.
Census Politicizing Some politicians tried to link the census with elections. The direct implication appears at three levels: 1. more pressure on COSIT regarding the on census date, 2. more pressure (intervention) on the content of census questionnaires, 3. more quality assurance and anti-fraud measures were requested from COSIT to ensure credibility of the outcomes.
Census Politicizing The challenges facing COSIT are 1. creating a national consensus on the census date and content 2. launching the census in a freely professional manner. The risks on the census launching 1. repeated postponement of the fieldwork 2. not endorsing the census results 3. undermine the whole statistical system as a result of more politicizing due to political intervention and allowing non statistical actors to intervene.
Population Challenges Ahead before census team displacement over time Locality Affiliation For some communities Boarder conflict Violent opposition Other Challenges: 1. Security Problems 2. Counting Iraqis abroad 3. Endorsement of Census Results 4. Fraud
Challenge Strategy to Deal with Challenges Strategies 1. Fragile Security Situation • CB-Remote transfer of know-how • S-S technical cooperation • Gradual safe landing: step by step • Move ahead cautiously 2. Potential fraud counting, processing (double counting, out-scope, inclusion, miscoding, etc) • Finger print • Curfew system • Mixed Teams • CIMo. C 3. Census endorsement • ITAB-IC • CIMo. C • Involvement of civil society
rned s Lea sson Le Fragility is not exception any more Census could be peacemaking tool Communication strategy is key International support is very important Investment in training is a wise strategy Argumentation with political level is important
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