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INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Fourth Edition EUN / RESNICK 3 -0 Copyright © 2007 by INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Fourth Edition EUN / RESNICK 3 -0 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Balance of Payments Chapter Objective: 3 Chapter Three INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT This chapter The Balance of Payments Chapter Objective: 3 Chapter Three INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT This chapter serves to introduce the student to the balance of payments. How it is constructed and Fourth Edition how balance of payments data may be interpreted. EUN / RESNICK 3 -1 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Chapter Three Outline l l Balance of Payments Accounting Balance of Payments Accounts n Chapter Three Outline l l Balance of Payments Accounting Balance of Payments Accounts n n l l 3 -2 The Current Account The Capital Account Statistical Discrepancy Official Reserves Account The Balance of Payments Identity Balance of Payments Trends in Major Countries Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Balance of Payments Accounting l The Balance of Payments is the statistical record of Balance of Payments Accounting l The Balance of Payments is the statistical record of a country’s international transactions over a certain period of time presented in the form of double-entry bookkeeping. N. B. when we say “a country’s balance of payments” we are referring to the transactions of its citizens and government. 3 -3 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Balance of Payments Example l l l 3 -4 Suppose that Maplewood Bicycle in Balance of Payments Example l l l 3 -4 Suppose that Maplewood Bicycle in Maplewood, Missouri, USA imports $100, 000 worth of bicycle frames from Mercian Bicycles in Darby England. There will exist a $100, 000 credit recorded by Mercian that offsets a $100, 000 debit at Maplewood’s bank account. This will lead to a rise in the supply of dollars and the demand for British pounds. Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Balance of Payments Accounts l l The balance of payments accounts are those that Balance of Payments Accounts l l The balance of payments accounts are those that record all transactions between the residents of a country and residents of all foreign nations. They are composed of the following: n n 3 -5 The Current Account The Capital Account The Official Reserves Account Statistical Discrepancy Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Current Account l l Includes all imports and exports of goods and services. The Current Account l l Includes all imports and exports of goods and services. Includes unilateral transfers of foreign aid. If the debits exceed the credits, then a country is running a trade deficit. If the credits exceed the debits, then a country is running a trade surplus. 3 -6 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Capital Account l l l The capital account measures the difference between U. The Capital Account l l l The capital account measures the difference between U. S. sales of assets to foreigners and U. S. purchases of foreign assets. In 2004, the U. S. enjoyed a $611. 2 billion capital account surplus—absent of U. S. borrowing from foreigners, this “finances” our trade deficit. The capital account is composed of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), portfolio investments and other investments. 3 -7 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical Discrepancy l l There’s going to be some omissions and misrecorded transactions—so we Statistical Discrepancy l l There’s going to be some omissions and misrecorded transactions—so we use a “plug” figure to get things to balance. Exhibit 3. 1 shows a discrepancy of $51. 9 billion in 2004. 3 -8 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Official Reserves Account l Official reserves assets include gold, foreign currencies, SDRs, reserve The Official Reserves Account l Official reserves assets include gold, foreign currencies, SDRs, reserve positions in the IMF. 3 -9 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Balance of Payments Identity BCA + BKA + BRA = 0 where BCA The Balance of Payments Identity BCA + BKA + BRA = 0 where BCA = balance on current account BKA = balance on capital account BRA = balance on the reserves account Under a pure flexible exchange rate regime, BCA + BKA = 0 3 -10 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. 2 2 Imports ($2, 109. 1) 3 $16. 4 4 5 6 7 $115. 5 $794. 4 $524. 3 $611. 2 51. 9 $2. 8 ($89. 4) ($665. 9) ($248. 5) ($90. 8) ($483. 7) Unilateral Transfers Balance on Current Account Capital Account Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investments Balance on Capital Account Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance Official Reserve Account 3 -11 $2. 8 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. 2 2 Imports ($2, 109. 1) 3 $16. 4 4 5 6 7 $115. 5 $794. 4 $524. 3 $611. 2 51. 9 $2. 8 ($89. 4) ($665. 9) ($248. 5) ($90. 8) ($483. 7) Unilateral Transfers Balance on Current Account Capital Account Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investments Balance on Capital Account Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance Official Reserve Account 3 -12 In 2004, the U. S. imported more than it exported, thus running a current account deficit of $665. 9 billion. $2. 8 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. 2 2 Imports ($2, 109. 1) 3 $16. 4 4 5 6 7 $115. 5 $794. 4 $524. 3 $611. 2 51. 9 $2. 8 ($89. 4) ($665. 9) ($248. 5) ($90. 8) ($483. 7) Unilateral Transfers Balance on Current Account Capital Account Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investments Balance on Capital Account Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance Official Reserve Account 3 -13 $2. 8 During the same year, the U. S. attracted net investment of $611. 2 billion— clearly the rest of the world found the U. S. to be a good place to invest. Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. 2 2 Imports ($2, 109. 1) 3 $16. 4 4 5 6 7 $115. 5 $794. 4 $524. 3 $611. 2 51. 9 $2. 8 ($89. 4) ($665. 9) ($248. 5) ($90. 8) ($483. 7) Unilateral Transfers Balance on Current Account Capital Account Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investments Balance on Capital Account Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance Official Reserve Account 3 -14 Under a pure flexible exchange rate regime, these numbers would balance each other out. $2. 8 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. 2 2 Imports ($2, 109. 1) 3 $16. 4 4 5 6 7 $115. 5 $794. 4 $524. 3 $611. 2 51. 9 $2. 8 ($89. 4) ($665. 9) ($248. 5) ($90. 8) ($483. 7) Unilateral Transfers Balance on Current Account Capital Account Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investments Balance on Capital Account Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance Official Reserve Account 3 -15 In the real world, there is a statistical discrepancy. $2. 8 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. U. S. Balance of Payments Data Current Account Credits Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. 2 2 Imports ($2, 109. 1) 3 $16. 4 4 5 6 7 $115. 5 $794. 4 $524. 3 $611. 2 51. 9 $2. 8 ($89. 4) ($665. 9) ($248. 5) ($90. 8) ($483. 7) Unilateral Transfers Balance on Current Account Capital Account Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investments Balance on Capital Account Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance Official Reserve Account Including that, the balance of payments identity should hold: BCA + BKA = – BRA $2. 8 ($665. 9) + $611. 2 + $51. 9 = ($2. 8) 3 -16 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Current Account Credits Exchange rate $ Debits Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Current Account Credits Exchange rate $ Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. 2 2 Imports $16. 4 4 5 6 7 $115. 5 $794. 4 $524. 3 $611. 2 51. 9 $2. 8 ($89. 4) ($665. 9) ($248. 5) ($90. 8) ($483. 7) S ($2, 109. 1) 3 P Unilateral Transfers Balance on Current Account Capital Account Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investments Balance on Capital Account Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance Official Reserve Account 3 -17 $2. 8 D Q Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Current Account Credits Exchange rate $ Debits Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Current Account Credits Exchange rate $ Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. 2 2 Imports $16. 4 4 5 6 7 $115. 5 $794. 4 $524. 3 $611. 2 51. 9 $2. 8 ($89. 4) ($665. 9) ($248. 5) ($90. 8) ($483. 7) S ($2, 109. 1) 3 P Unilateral Transfers Balance on Current Account Capital Account Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investments Balance on Capital Account Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance Official Reserve Account $2. 8 D Q As U. S. citizens import, they are supply dollars to the FOREX market. 3 -18 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Current Account Credits Exchange rate $ Debits Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Current Account Credits Exchange rate $ Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. 2 2 Imports $16. 4 4 5 6 7 $115. 5 $794. 4 $524. 3 $611. 2 51. 9 $2. 8 ($89. 4) ($665. 9) ($248. 5) ($90. 8) ($483. 7) S ($2, 109. 1) 3 P Unilateral Transfers Balance on Current Account Capital Account Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investments Balance on Capital Account Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance Official Reserve Account $2. 8 D Q As U. S. citizens export, others demand dollars at the FOREX market. 3 -19 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Current Account Credits Exchange rate $ Debits Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate Current Account Credits Exchange rate $ Debits 1 Exports $1, 516. 2 2 Imports ($2, 109. 1) 3 $16. 4 4 5 6 7 $115. 5 $794. 4 $524. 3 $611. 2 51. 9 $2. 8 ($89. 4) ($665. 9) ($248. 5) ($90. 8) ($483. 7) Unilateral Transfers Balance on Current Account Capital Account Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investments Balance on Capital Account Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance Official Reserve Account $2. 8 P S S 1 D Q As the U. S. government sells dollars, the supply of dollars increases. 3 -20 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Balance of Payments Trends l l Since 1982 the U. S. has experienced continuous Balance of Payments Trends l l Since 1982 the U. S. has experienced continuous deficits on the current account and continuous surpluses on the capital account. During the same period, Japan has experienced the opposite. 3 -21 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of the United States Source: Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of the United States Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3 -22

Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of United Kingdom Source: IMF Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of United Kingdom Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3 -23

Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of Japan Source: IMF International Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of Japan Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3 -24

Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of Germany Source: IMF International Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of Germany Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3 -25

Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of China Source: IMF International Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of China Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3 -26

Balance of Payments Trends l Germany traditionally had current account surpluses. n n n Balance of Payments Trends l Germany traditionally had current account surpluses. n n n l From 1991 to 2001 Germany experienced current account deficits. This was largely due to German reunification and the resultant need to absorb more output domestically to rebuild the former East Germany. Since 2001 Germany returned to its earlier pattern. What matters is the nature and causes of the disequilibrium. 3 -27 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of Five Major Countries Source: Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of Five Major Countries Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, 2000 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3 -28

End Chapter Three 3 -29 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. End Chapter Three 3 -29 Copyright © 2007 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.