Скачать презентацию International Financial Management Chapter 2 The history of Скачать презентацию International Financial Management Chapter 2 The history of

d8e95dc2704efc501cf1dec1e8d43784.ppt

  • Количество слайдов: 49

International Financial Management Chapter 2 The history of money and finance Michael Connolly School International Financial Management Chapter 2 The history of money and finance Michael Connolly School of Business Administration, University of Miami Michael Connolly © 2007 Chapter 2 1

Summary n n n n The role of money Money and exchange rates The Summary n n n n The role of money Money and exchange rates The history of monies Foreign exchange history Banks and banking The international monetary institutions History of stock exchanges Chapter 2 2

The role of money n Money serves three important roles in an economy: n The role of money n Money serves three important roles in an economy: n It is a unit of account – a yardstick by which to measure the value of goods and assets. n n A medium of exchange to facilitate transactions, avoiding barter. A store of value in which to temporarily hold liquid wealth. Chapter 2 3

Money and exchange rates n n The Bank of England the Banque de France, Money and exchange rates n n The Bank of England the Banque de France, had gold windows where they bought and sold gold at a fixed currency price in the 19 th century. In doing so, their currency rates were fixed. For example, if the Bank of England sets ten pounds per ounce of gold as the buy/sell rate and the Banque of France 100 francs, the equilibrium exchange rate is set at 100 francs per 10 pounds or 10 francs a pound. Arbitrage in gold kept the exchange rates within a narrow band of gold points. Let’s say the exchange rate falls to 9. 5 francs a pound. A gold arbitrageur purchases 10 pounds for 95 francs, presents the 10 pounds to the Bank of England gold window in exchange for an ounce of gold. The arbitrageur then insures and ships the gold to the Banque de France, selling it for 100 francs, pocketing 5 francs less insurance and shipping as profit. Chapter 2 4

Money and exchange rates n n With floating exchange rates, the exchange rate moves Money and exchange rates n n With floating exchange rates, the exchange rate moves roughly according to the relative purchasing power of monies. This is known as purchasing power parity. Countries with high money growth experience higher rates of inflation and consequently, Greater depreciations in their exchange rate. A fixed exchange rate serves as a monetary anchor, while a floating exchange rate permits independent money growth. Chapter 2 5

The history of monies n Ancient Chinese monies: Circa 900 -500 BC Chapter 2 The history of monies n Ancient Chinese monies: Circa 900 -500 BC Chapter 2 6

The history of monies n n Ancient Chinese monies: copper coins used before 221 The history of monies n n Ancient Chinese monies: copper coins used before 221 BC Coin issued in 221 BC by the Qin Dynasty, the first feudal dynasty to unify China and its coins. Chapter 2 7

The history of monies n n The Lydian Lion’s Head: circa 600 -575 BC The history of monies n n The Lydian Lion’s Head: circa 600 -575 BC is thought by many to be the world’s first coin. It was made of electrum, a precious alloy of gold and silver that consisting of about 54 percent gold, 44 percent silver, and 2 percent copper. Chapter 2 8

The history of monies n n Ancient Chinese monies: The Yibi Circa 500 BC The history of monies n n Ancient Chinese monies: The Yibi Circa 500 BC Made of copper and known as the creeping ant -nose coin. Chapter 2 9

The history of monies n n Ancient Chinese monies: The Guinian (Ghost face) copper The history of monies n n Ancient Chinese monies: The Guinian (Ghost face) copper coin circa B. C 400 to 300 Both the Yibi and the Guinian coin have the shape of shells, the earliest currency in China. Chapter 2 10

The history of monies n Ancient Chinese monies: Issued in 621 AD under the The history of monies n Ancient Chinese monies: Issued in 621 AD under the Tang Dynasty. Chapter 2 11

The history of monies n Ancient Chinese monies: The first uniform paper money in The history of monies n Ancient Chinese monies: The first uniform paper money in the world, the Jiaozi, issued in 1023 under the Song Dynasty. Chapter 2 12

The history of monies n The Spanish peso contained 0. 821791 troy ounce (25. The history of monies n The Spanish peso contained 0. 821791 troy ounce (25. 560 grams) pure silver and was also used as domestic money in Asia, Latin America, America and Europe. Chapter 2 13

The history of monies The last paper monies of the feudal dynasties: 1875 to The history of monies The last paper monies of the feudal dynasties: 1875 to 1908 Chapter 2 14

n n n The early definitions of seigniorage referred Seigniorage to the difference in n n n The early definitions of seigniorage referred Seigniorage to the difference in the value of a money, and its mint costs. For example, say a silver coin has value $10 and its silver content and cost of manufacture is only 50 cents, then seigniorage is $9. 50. Seigniorage on paper money is generally greater due to the higher nominal values as money and the lower costs of printing in terms of paper, ink, anti-counterfeit measures such as filaments, water marks, color changing ink and the like. Chapter 2 15

Seigniorage n n For example the US $100 bill costs about 12 cents to Seigniorage n n For example the US $100 bill costs about 12 cents to manufacture. Consequently seigniorage is $99. 88. These profits to the Treasury can be spent, just as with any other tax receipt. The issue of money is usually the right of the sovereign government (i. e. the seigneur), so that the right to strike money has historically been used to finance wars and emergency expenditures by the “printing press. ” Chapter 2 16

n n More formally, seigniorage is the residual finance of any fiscal deficit that n n More formally, seigniorage is the residual finance of any fiscal deficit that is not Seigniorage completely covered by new borrowing. That is: Where d. M/dt is new seigniorage, (G-T) the fiscal and quasi-fiscal deficit, d. B/dt new domestic borrowing, and d. B*/dt new foreign borrowing. Chapter 2 17

n n It is often instructive to express new Seigniorage seigniorage as a percentage n n It is often instructive to express new Seigniorage seigniorage as a percentage of GDP, that is: When deficits become large as a percent of GDP, say above 5 or 6%, it may become difficult to finance it by new borrowing, so resort to the printing press may take place, causing high inflation. Chapter 2 18

Seigniorage n n There are, however, limits as to the amount of seigniorage finance Seigniorage n n There are, however, limits as to the amount of seigniorage finance may take place. This is because the demand for money collapses when inflation is high, so that real seigniorage collections, ΔM/P, decline after a certain point, yielding what is known as a “Laffer curve in seigniorage. ” Chapter 2 19

Seigniorage Real seigniorage revenue as a percent of real money balances CHINA 13. 8% Seigniorage Real seigniorage revenue as a percent of real money balances CHINA 13. 8% 0 14. 6% 100 Seigniorage tax rate (%) Between 1952 and 1995, China has issued new seigniorage at a 14. 6% rate, collecting 13. 8% in new real seigniorage revenue. Note: Technically speaking, the seigniorage tax rate is so that in the limit it approaches 1 or 100% when money growth approaches infinity. Chapter 2 20

Seigniorage Real seigniorage revenue per annum as a percent of real money balances USA Seigniorage Real seigniorage revenue per annum as a percent of real money balances USA 3. 1% 0 6. 7% 100 Seigniorage tax rate (%) 1960 -1995, averages. Chapter 2 21

Seigniorage Real seigniorage revenue as a percent of income CHINA 1. 2% 0 14. Seigniorage Real seigniorage revenue as a percent of income CHINA 1. 2% 0 14. 6% 100 Seigniorage tax rate (%) As a percent of GDP (Y), this represents an annual collections rate of 1. 2% of GDP in China from 1952 to 2005. Chapter 2 22

Seigniorage Real seigniorage revenue as a percent of annual income USA 0. 36% 0 Seigniorage Real seigniorage revenue as a percent of annual income USA 0. 36% 0 6. 7% 100 Seigniorage tax rate (%) As a percent of GDP (Y), this represents an annual collections rate of 0. 36% of GDP in the United States from 1960 to 2005. Chapter 2 23

The revenue maximizing rate of seigniorage In equilibrium, money demand, L, equals money supply, The revenue maximizing rate of seigniorage In equilibrium, money demand, L, equals money supply, M. The demand for money, however, is inversely related to its rate of seigniorage issue (and inflation), so that we may write real revenue as determined by the rate of seigniorage issue times real money balances. For simplicity, define seigniorage is: so that the real revenue collected from Which is the money demand equation according to Philip Cagan, “The Monetary Dynamics of Inflation, ” in Milton Friedman, editor Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, Chicago: University of Chicago Press 1956. k is a constant y is real GDP η is the income elasticity of demand for money α is the semi-elasticity of the demand for money with respect to the rate of seigniorage issue Chapter 2 24

The revenue maximizing rate of seigniorage The rate of seigniorage issue that maximizes real The revenue maximizing rate of seigniorage The rate of seigniorage issue that maximizes real revenue from seigniorage is given by: Or Which yields the revenue maximizing issue of seigniorage equal to: The greater the semi-elasticity of demand for money, the lower is the revenue maximizing rate of inflation, as illustrated graphically. Chapter 2 25

Seigniorage The reason why a relatively high percent of seigniorage can be collected in Seigniorage The reason why a relatively high percent of seigniorage can be collected in China is due firstly, to the high real rate of growth in income, leading to increased demand for money, and secondly to a high income elasticity of demand for money. Thus, virtually no inflation has resulted. Chapter 2 26

place without the use of coinage, a precursor of the modern letter of credit place without the use of coinage, a precursor of the modern letter of credit (L/C). Foreign exchange history Chapter 2 27

usury laws using a sequence of two bill transactions – a precursor of today’s usury laws using a sequence of two bill transactions – a precursor of today’s foreign Foreign exchange history exchange swap. Chapter 2 28

n This form of forward exchange still exists today in Foreign exchange history futures n This form of forward exchange still exists today in Foreign exchange history futures (NDFs) in the form of non-deliverable the Chinese yuan (formally Renminbi, the “People’s Currency) in Singapore and Hong Kong. Chapter 2 29

n Floating exchange rates began in the early 1970 s, and global markets were n Floating exchange rates began in the early 1970 s, and global markets were being Foreign integrated. exchange history The resulting need of multinational businesses to hedge their currency exposures caused the rapid growth of foreign exchange trading in the 1980 s and 1990 s. Chapter 2 30

n n In 2004, daily turnover net of double-counting Foreign exchange on the London n n In 2004, daily turnover net of double-counting Foreign exchange on the London foreign history market was a staggering $753 billion in currency spots, swaps, forwards and options. This represents 31% of daily foreign exchange transactions, compared to 19% in the United States, and 8% in Japan. Chapter 2 31

Banks and banking n n The first modern bank was the Bank of Amsterdam, Banks and banking n n The first modern bank was the Bank of Amsterdam, founded in 1609. The Amsterdam bank was quickly followed by other major cities. The Bank of Hamburg was formed in 1619 and the Bank of Sweden in 1656. Sweden issued the first European paper bank notes in 1661. Chapter 2 32

Banks and banking n n The Bank of England was founded in 1694 as Banks and banking n n The Bank of England was founded in 1694 as a commercial bank by William Paterson with the right to issue notes up to the amount of its capital, initially £ 1. 2 million. It was nationalized by Parliament in 1946. The shareholders received compensation and the Bank of England thereafter ceased its private business, becoming the banker of government Chapter 2 33

Banks and banking n n Since 1977, The Bank of England has the responsibility Banks and banking n n Since 1977, The Bank of England has the responsibility for setting monetary policy. Prudential oversight of the British commercial banking system was simultaneously transferred to the Securities and Investments Board. Chapter 2 34

n n In the United banking the Federal Reserve Banks and States, Act established n n In the United banking the Federal Reserve Banks and States, Act established the Federal Reserve System (the FED) in 1913 with 12 districts. The Federal Reserve Banks provide liquidity, clear transactions, and control the money supply. The FED was established primarily as a reserve institution, a lender of last resort to prevent bank runs and liquidity crises. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insuring deposits was begun in March 1933. Chapter 2 35

The international monetary institutions n n The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was established in The international monetary institutions n n The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was established in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference in New Hampshire. Its purpose was to establish orderly exchange rate arrangements based on a par value system, to eliminate exchange controls, and to provide temporary short term balance of payments assistance via conditional loans to member countries that are short of foreign exchange reserves. Chapter 2 36

n n The international monetary institutions The World Bank, a sister institution of the n n The international monetary institutions The World Bank, a sister institution of the IMF created in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference initially made long term development loans for projects such as dams, airports, rubber and concrete production, water systems, and the like. It got involved in Structural Adjustment Loans (SALs) in the 1990 s in tandem with the IMF requiring structural adjustments to economic policy. This could mean privatization of state enterprises, lifting price and exchange controls, and improving monetary and fiscal policies, for instance. Chapter 2 37

The international monetary institutions n n n The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is The international monetary institutions n n n The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is often referred to as the bank of central banks. Located in Basel, Switzerland, It was established May 17, 1930 at the Hague convention. As such, it is the oldest international monetary organization. It does not do business with private individuals or corporations; only with central banks and international institutions. Chapter 2 38

The history of the stock exchanges n n The New York Stock Exchange established The history of the stock exchanges n n The New York Stock Exchange established May 17, 1792 on Wall Street. Traders met at the old wooden wall, no longer in existence, but giving its name to the street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) started out with 12 stocks in October 1928. Only General Electric remains of the original twelve. The S&P 500 Index covers the 500 most widely held companies. Chapter 2 39

The history of the stock exchanges n n The London Stock Exchange was established The history of the stock exchanges n n The London Stock Exchange was established in 1773, formerly Jonathan’s Coffee House where trades met. Trading has since moved off the floor with the introduction of the Stock Exchange Automated Quotations (SEAQ) system. The Footsie 100 Index is the Financial Times Stock Exchange Index of the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. Chapter 2 40

The history of the stock exchanges n n n The Tokyo Stock Exchange was The history of the stock exchanges n n n The Tokyo Stock Exchange was established on May 15, 1878. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is an average of stock market prices similar to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Paris Bourse was established in Paris by the order of the Royal council in 1724. In 1986, the futures exchange – Le MATIF was established. The CAC 40 Index is the acronym for “Compagnie des Agents de Change 40 Index, ” 40 French companies listed on the Paris Stock Exchange. Chapter 2 41

The history of the stock exchanges n n The Frankfurt Stock Exchange dates from The history of the stock exchanges n n The Frankfurt Stock Exchange dates from the 9 th century when trade fairs were authorized. In 1585 it was organized as a bourse to fix exchange rates and by 1894 had became a formal stock exchange. Its main index, the DAX consists of the 30 largest issues traded on the exchange. Chapter 2 42

n n n The history of the stock (SSE) was The Shanghai Stock Exchange n n n The history of the stock (SSE) was The Shanghai Stock Exchange exchanges founded in 1904, mainly dealing in rubber shares. The Japanese occupation brought an end to its operations. The modern Shanghai Stock Exchange was founded in 1990 but suffers from transparency, disclosure and monitoring issues that have put it into a serious slump from which it is just now recovering. The Shanghai Composite Index is a composite of hard-currency B shares sold to foreigners and yuan-denominated A shares sold to Chinese. Chapter 2 43

The history of the stock exchanges n n n The performances of the international The history of the stock exchanges n n n The performances of the international stock markets indices are related. In fact, this is one aspect of the increased globalization of international trade and finance. The following table reports the correlation between the monthly real rates of return on major world stock indices Chapter 2 44

The history of the stock exchanges n Correlations between the monthly real rates of The history of the stock exchanges n Correlations between the monthly real rates of return of major stock indices: 1995 -2004. ** Correlation is significant at the 0. 01 level (2 -tailed). * Correlation is significant at the 0. 05 level (2 -tailed). Chapter 2 45

Conclusion n n Money serves as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, Conclusion n n Money serves as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Different monies must be converted into the same unit of account by the exchange rate in order to compare prices and rates of return. This currency conversion gives rise to foreign exchange risk in investing and operating internationally. The foreign exchange markets have arisen to deal with spot and forward transactions in different monies, as well as currency options to either hedge or speculate. Chapter 2 46

Conclusion n The largest FOREX market remains London. accounting for 31% of daily turnover Conclusion n The largest FOREX market remains London. accounting for 31% of daily turnover in the foreign exchanges. The exchange costs on the FOREX market are mainly the difference between the ask and the bid price of foreign currency – the bidask spread – as well as any commission associated with the conversion. These costs are not insignificant, amounting to approximately a billion USD daily. Chapter 2 47

Conclusion n n There is increasing financial integration in the world financial markets, making Conclusion n n There is increasing financial integration in the world financial markets, making for a more efficient distribution of worldwide finance. The adoption of the euro by twelve countries as the same currency has removed exchange rate risk and conversion costs from the financial landscape of Europe. Chapter 2 48

Conclusion n n The issue of seigniorage has been the “root of all evils” Conclusion n n The issue of seigniorage has been the “root of all evils” in many emerging markets, especially developing countries in Latin America and Africa. Money has become worthless, so that “currency reforms” – a change of the monetary unit – have been necessary in Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Mexico and Ecuador (which has officially dollarized) It is often the “finance of last resort” when a government runs a high fiscal deficit it cannot finance by borrowing at home and abroad. It’s last resort is to print money – the “printing press. ” China and the United States have since the 1950 s restrained the issue of seigniorage and consequently have had low inflation. At the same time, China’s high income elasticity of demand for money and its high growth rate have allowed 1. 2% of GDP to be collected as seigniorage revenues. Chapter 2 49