Integrated Assessment Methods and approach Illustrative examples Future

Integrated Assessment Methods and approach Illustrative examples Future directions Amy Snover, Ph. D Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System University of Washington

What is IA? . . . an interdisciplinary process of combining, interpreting, and communicating knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines in such a way that the whole cause-effect chain of a problem can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective with two characteristics: (1) it should have added value compared to a single disciplinary oriented assessment; (2) it should provide useful information to decision makers. (Rotmans and Dowlatabadi 1998)

Characteristics of CIG’s IA • vertical • horizontal • spatial • temporal • interdisciplinary • intermural Requires research and synthesis. Papers on approaches to integrated assessment: Snover et al. 2003; Gamble et al. 2003; Rhythms of Change – Chs. 2 & 11.

Methods: Integrated Research 1. Understand the natural system predictability, uncertainty 2. Understand the managed system the nature and consequences of human choices and activities 3. Understand the institutional context of these systems processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars 1 -3. Work with regional stakeholders First vertical, then horizontal assessment

Vertical Integration Climate dynamics Impacts on natural systems Impacts on human systems Human response capabilities

e. g. , Miles et al. 2000

Vertical Assessment Integrated assessment of climate impacts on the Columbia River basin Miles et al. 2000 Value of climate forecasts for Columbia basin hydropower production Hamlet et al. 2001, Huppert et al. 2001 Implications of climate change for PNW urban water resources Palmer and Hahn 2002 Analyses of the institutional context of regional water resources management and potential use of climate forecasts in management Callahan et al. 1999, Gray 1999 Transboundary Issues in the Columbia River Basin Hamlet 2003 Fisheries Management Applications Mantua and Francis 2003 Climate Change, Carbon, and Forestry Innes et al. 2004 Climate Impacts on PNW Resources Rhythms of Change, Chs. 6 -9 Outreach: Sectoral Workshops

Horizontal Assessment Streamflow • Compare results across sectors • Synthesize results across region Snow Mote et al. 1999 a, b, 2003; Parson et al. 2000; Peterson et al. , in prep. ; National Assessment; Rhythms of Change (esp. Chs. 10 -11); Snover et al. 2003 Coho Potential Impacts of Climate Change ENSO PDO Mote et al. 2003

Teaching Graduate Education • ATMS 585 A/ENVIR 585 A/ESS 585 A/SMA 585 A: Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest • SMA 501: Marine Affairs Practice (Integrated Assessment applied to marine policy problems) • PBAF 595/ENVIR 500 A: The Role of Science in Environmental Decisions • PBAF 598 H: Decision-Making in the Face of Uncertainty: Practitioner Views on Environmental Resource Management Challenges • ESC 512 A: Consequences of Climate Change and Climate Variability for PNW Forests • Oregon State University: Global Climate Change Science and Policy International Workshops on Regional Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment • Lucca, Italy – September 2002 • Grainau, Germany – June/July 2004 • Cairns, Australia – 2006

To the Future Objective: To develop a capability to answer questions from policymakers concerning impacts and policies at the different time/space scales at which climate, natural ecosystems, and human social systems interact. Strategic Questions: 1. What are the critical interactions among resources (and resource management) that will shape regional impacts of climate variability and change? 2. What are the net impacts of climate variability on the region and what are the likely impacts of climate change, combined with regional trends in population growth and technological development? What are the costs of these impacts? 3. What are the greatest uncertainties in quantifying the effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and human social systems in the region? Which uncertainties are most crucial for improving predictions and/or resource management? 4. How could cross-sectoral management improve adaptive capacity by exploiting the critical interactions across sectors and resources? Requires increasing vertical and horizontal integration.

New Directions in Horizontal Integration • Physical Template • Integrated Watershed Analysis Response to stakeholder demand for watershed level information Top: Mt. Rainier (Marli Miller, Univ. Oregon) Bottom: Dungeness National Wildlife Refuge (Albert Copley, OK Univ. Archives)

Physical Template • GIS-based “picture” of the PNW • Method of integrating information about climate impacts with information about the ecological, regulatory, and socioeconomic environments in which they occur • Tool for visualization, querying, information delivery, and spatial analysis • Available to CSES (to support internal integration and finescale policy analysis) and to stakeholders (to support planning for adaptation)

Physical Template 1. Enhance stakeholders’ familiarity with the role of climate in managed resources – – 2. Map past and future patterns of PNW hydroclimatic conditions Designed in consultation with regional planners & decision makers Provide targeted interpretive products, e. g. , – – Highlight areas of high/low sensitivity to climate change Map hydrologically vulnerable watersheds

Integrated Watershed Analysis Responding to stakeholder demand for information applicable to realworld watershed planning issues. Mt Baker, WA Photo: Chris Keane American Geological Institute

Integrated Watershed Analysis Forest Hydrology Coastal Management Focus on sediment loading of streams Effective institutions for integrated management Climate change (altered water cycle) Human activities (resource & land use) Climate change Human activities (aquaculture, development) Climate change (sea level rise & ocean mixing) Freshwater habitat Human activities (fishing) (water quality, quantity & timing) Health & Viability of PNW salmon Estuarine habitat (water quality, mixing processes) Estuarine Ecology Climate impacts on estuarine conditions Salmon Lifecycle Relationship between habitats and salmon success Ocean habitat

Outputs • Simulation models linking climatehydrology-land/water use-forest ecology-water quality-aquatic ecosystems – Explore the impacts of climate variability, climate change, and human activities on these linked resources – Identify and evaluate alternative management responses • Information in support of climate sensitive decisions • Ultimately … a “virtual NW” simulation model that will allow stakeholders, scientists, and decision makers to explore the impacts of policy choices in the face of climate change and population growth scenarios