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Infrastructure and Methods to Support Real Time Biosurveillance Kenneth D. Mandl, MD, MPH Children’s Infrastructure and Methods to Support Real Time Biosurveillance Kenneth D. Mandl, MD, MPH Children’s Hospital Boston Harvard Medical School

Category A agents l l l Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) • Botulism (Clostridium botulinum toxin)» Category A agents l l l Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) • Botulism (Clostridium botulinum toxin)» Plague (Yersinia pestis)» Smallpox (Variola major)» Tularemia (Francisella tularensis)» Viral hemorrhagic fevers (filoviruses [e. g. , Ebola, Marburg] and arenaviruses [e. g. , Lassa])

Natural history—Anthrax l Incubation is 1 -6 days l Flu like symptoms followed in Natural history—Anthrax l Incubation is 1 -6 days l Flu like symptoms followed in 2 days by acute phase, including breathing difficulty, shock. l Death within 24 hours of acute phase l Treatment must be initiated within 24 hours of symptoms

Attack scenario—Anthrax l l State sponsored terrorist attack Release of Anthrax, NYC subway No Attack scenario—Anthrax l l State sponsored terrorist attack Release of Anthrax, NYC subway No notification by perpetrators 1% of the passengers exposed during rush hour will contract the disease

Need for early detection Phase II Acute Illness Phase I Initial Symptoms Early Detection Need for early detection Phase II Acute Illness Phase I Initial Symptoms Early Detection Traditional Disease Detection Gain of 2 days Effective Treatment Period

But. . . l Until now, there has been no real time surveillance for But. . . l Until now, there has been no real time surveillance for any diseases l The threat of bioterrorism has focused interest on and brought funding to this problem

Where can real time information have a beneficial effect? l Diagnosis ü Decision Support Where can real time information have a beneficial effect? l Diagnosis ü Decision Support l Response ü Coordination ü Communication l Surveillance ü Detection ü Monitoring

Surveillance of what? l Environment ü Biological sensors l Citizenry ü Health related behaviors Surveillance of what? l Environment ü Biological sensors l Citizenry ü Health related behaviors ü Biological markers l Patient populations ü Patterns of health services use ü Biological markers

Syndromic surveillance l Use patterns of behavior or health care use, for early warning Syndromic surveillance l Use patterns of behavior or health care use, for early warning l Example, influenza-like illness l Really should be called “prodromic surveillance”

Early implementations l Drop in surveillance ü Paper based ü Computer based (Leaders) l Early implementations l Drop in surveillance ü Paper based ü Computer based (Leaders) l Automated surveillance ü Health care data ü “Non-traditional” data sources

Syndromes tracked at WTC 2001 Syndromic Surveillance for Bioterrorism Following the Attacks on the Syndromes tracked at WTC 2001 Syndromic Surveillance for Bioterrorism Following the Attacks on the World Trade Center --- New York City, 2001. MMWR. 2002; 51((Special Issue)): 13 -15.

Health care data sources l l l l Patient demographic information Emergency department chief Health care data sources l l l l Patient demographic information Emergency department chief complaints International Classification of Disease (ICD) Text-based notes Laboratory data Radiological reports Physician reports (not automated) ? new processes for data collection?

“Non traditional data sources” l l l Pharmacy data 911 operators Call triage centers “Non traditional data sources” l l l Pharmacy data 911 operators Call triage centers School absenteeism Animal surveillance Agricultural data

Data Integration l l Technical challenges Security issues Political barriers Privacy concerns Data Integration l l Technical challenges Security issues Political barriers Privacy concerns

Data Issues l l Data often collected for other purposes Data formats are nonstandard Data Issues l l Data often collected for other purposes Data formats are nonstandard Data may not be available in a timely fashion Syndrome definitions may be problematic

Data quality l Data often collected for other purposes ü What do the data Data quality l Data often collected for other purposes ü What do the data represent? ü Who is entering them? ü When are they entered? ü How are they entered? Electronic vs. paper

Measured quality/value of data Measured quality/value of data

Data standards l Health care data standards have been elusive ü HL 7 ü Data standards l Health care data standards have been elusive ü HL 7 ü LOINC ü UMLS ü NEDSS

Syndrome definition l May be imprecise l Sensitivity/Specificity tradeoff l Expert guided vs. machine-guided? Syndrome definition l May be imprecise l Sensitivity/Specificity tradeoff l Expert guided vs. machine-guided?

Modeling the Data l Establishing baseline l Developing forecasting methods l Detecting temporal signal Modeling the Data l Establishing baseline l Developing forecasting methods l Detecting temporal signal l Detecting spatial signal

Baseline l Are data available to establish baseline? ü Periodic variations F Day F Baseline l Are data available to establish baseline? ü Periodic variations F Day F Month F Season F Year F Special days ü Variations in patient locations F Secular trends in population F Shifting referral patterns F Seasonal effects

Boston data l Syndromic surveillance l Influenza like illness l Time and space Boston data l Syndromic surveillance l Influenza like illness l Time and space

Forecasting Forecasting

Components of ED volume SICK RESP GI PAIN OTHER INJURY SKIN Components of ED volume SICK RESP GI PAIN OTHER INJURY SKIN

Forecasting Forecasting

Principal Fourier component analysis 1 year 1/3 year 1 week . 5 week Principal Fourier component analysis 1 year 1/3 year 1 week . 5 week

ARIMA modeling ARIMA modeling

Forecasting performance • Overall ED Volume – Average Visits: 137 – ARMA(1, 2) Model Forecasting performance • Overall ED Volume – Average Visits: 137 – ARMA(1, 2) Model – Average Error: 7. 8%

Forecasting Forecasting

Forecasting performance • Respiratory ED Volume – Average Visits: 17 – ARMA(1, 1) Model Forecasting performance • Respiratory ED Volume – Average Visits: 17 – ARMA(1, 1) Model – Average Error: 20. 5%

GIS GIS

Seasonal distributions Seasonal distributions

A curve fit to the cumulative distribution A curve fit to the cumulative distribution

A simulated outbreak A simulated outbreak

The cluster 14 12 10 P e r c e n t 8 6 The cluster 14 12 10 P e r c e n t 8 6 4 2 0 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 distance Curve: Beta (Theta=-. 02 Scale=95. 5 a=1. 44 b=5. 57) 72 78

Major issues l l l l Will this work at all? ? ? Can Major issues l l l l Will this work at all? ? ? Can we get better data? How do we tune for a particular attack? What to do without training data? What do we do with all the information? How do we set alarm thresholds? How do we protect patient privacy?

Will this work at all? l A syndromic surveillance system operating in the metro Will this work at all? l A syndromic surveillance system operating in the metro DC area failed to pick up the 2001 anthrax mailings l Is syndromic surveillance therefore a worthless technology? l Need to consider the parameters of what will be detectable l Do not ignore the monitoring role

Getting better data l Approaches to standardizing data collection ü DEEDS ü Frontlines of Getting better data l Approaches to standardizing data collection ü DEEDS ü Frontlines of Medicine project ü National Disease Epidemiologic Surveillance System, NEDSS

Tuning for a particular attack l Attacks may have different “shapes” in the data Tuning for a particular attack l Attacks may have different “shapes” in the data l Different methods may be more well suited to detect each particular shape l If we use multiple methods at once, how do we deal with multiple testing?

Will this work at all? l A syndromic surveillance system operating in the metro Will this work at all? l A syndromic surveillance system operating in the metro DC area failed to pick up the 2001 anthrax mailings l Is syndromic surveillance therefore a worthless technology? l Need to consider the parameters of what will be detectable l Do not ignore the monitoring role

Getting better data l Approaches to standardizing data collection ü DEEDS ü Frontlines of Getting better data l Approaches to standardizing data collection ü DEEDS ü Frontlines of Medicine project ü National Disease Epidemiologic Surveillance System, NEDSS

No training data l Need to rely on simulation l Imprint an attack onto No training data l Need to rely on simulation l Imprint an attack onto our data set, taking in to account regional peculiarities ü Artificial signal on probabilistic noise ü Artificial signal on real noise ü Real signal (from different data) on real noise

What do we do with all of this information? l Signals from same data What do we do with all of this information? l Signals from same data using multiple methods? l Signals from overlapping geographical regions? l Signals from remote geographical regions? ü Note: This highlights the important issue of interoperability and standards

Protecting patient privacy l l l HIPAA and public health Mandatory reporting vs. syndromic Protecting patient privacy l l l HIPAA and public health Mandatory reporting vs. syndromic surveillance The science of anonymization Minimum necessary data exchange Special issues with geocoded data