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Impact of Agricultural Trade Liberalization Between the EU and Mediterranean Countries: the case of Impact of Agricultural Trade Liberalization Between the EU and Mediterranean Countries: the case of the Tomato Processing Industry Document prepared for the EU-MED Agpol Seminar Paris, France, 15 -16 March 2007 by J-C Montigaud, INRA, Montpellier, France F. El Hadad, IAMM, Montpellier, France J. Briz, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Spain C. Giacomini, Università degli studi di Parma, Italy

Structure of presentation 1 - Introduction 2 - Methods: system approach, industrial organization and Structure of presentation 1 - Introduction 2 - Methods: system approach, industrial organization and management tools 3 - Main results * A better understanding of the EU tomato industry * The foreign trade of EU-15 for processed tomatoes * The foreign trade of the EU-25 for fresh and processed tomato products (in relation with the Mediterranean countries) * The unequal exchange between the EU and the Mediterranean countries: some elements of explanation 4 - Conclusion and discussions 2

Introduction The goal of the study: to analyse the impact of trade liberalization between Introduction The goal of the study: to analyse the impact of trade liberalization between the EU and the Mediterranean countries. On which side ? From the Med. countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel and Turquey) on the southern EU countries (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece) Which products ? Processed tomatoes (tomato paste, puree, sauces and ketchups, canned tomatoes) and fresh tomatoes (fresh and processed tomatoes are not distinct in the Med. Countries) Weight of the southern EU countries ? * Processed tomatoes: 11 M t in ERM (world production = 34 M t in 2004 and 30 M t in 2005) * Fresh tomatoes: Spain, Italy, Netherlands, France, Poland, Belgium = 5. 1 Mt (world production = 122 Mt in 2005) Weight of the Mediterranean countries ? * Processed tomatoes = 3 Mt in ERM * Fresh tomatoes: Morocco (0. 7), Algeria (7. 8), Tunisia (0. 9), Egypt (7. 6), Turkey (9. 7) = 26. 7 Mt ERM = equivalent raw materials ; M = million 3

Situation of the processed tomato industry in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece (2004) Situation of the processed tomato industry in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece (2004) in tons ERM 4

Main processed tomato producer countries in Mediterranean area 5 Main processed tomato producer countries in Mediterranean area 5

Methods The starting point is the definition of a vertical field of investigations which Methods The starting point is the definition of a vertical field of investigations which is called « filiere » A filiere is defined as a set of strongly connected, vertically integrated elements whose goal is to meet the consumers’ requirements. To study that, three tools are used: * a system approach (the filiere is considered as a system) * an industrial market structure analysis that describes the permanent and reciprocal relationships between the strategies of firms and the structures of the filiere (introduction of 3 case studies: Copador, Louis martin and Alsat) * and the tools of the management (cost accounting, financial ratios, logistics…) 6

A better understanding of the filiere 7 A better understanding of the filiere 7

Imports of the EU-15 and origin of products (2003 -04) in metric tonnes of Imports of the EU-15 and origin of products (2003 -04) in metric tonnes of finished products 8

Exports of the EU-15 and main destinations (2003 -2004) in metric tons of finished Exports of the EU-15 and main destinations (2003 -2004) in metric tons of finished products 9

Foreign trade of some Mediteranean countries with EU-25 for processed tomato products (2004) in Foreign trade of some Mediteranean countries with EU-25 for processed tomato products (2004) in metric tons of raw materials 10

Imports of fresh tomatoes (0720200) from Mediterranean countries to EU-25 in metric tons of Imports of fresh tomatoes (0720200) from Mediterranean countries to EU-25 in metric tons of raw materials 11

Foreign trade of Mediterranean countries with EU-25 for processed and fresh tomatoes (2004) in Foreign trade of Mediterranean countries with EU-25 for processed and fresh tomatoes (2004) in metric tons of raw materials Total balance (E – I) - 4 435 t for processed tomatoes (EU production = 11000 t) + 249 077 t for fresh tomatoes (EU production = 5 100 000 t) 12

Some comments about the last results Concerning the processed tomatoes: * Some segments of Some comments about the last results Concerning the processed tomatoes: * Some segments of the EU tomato industry are very efficient: The tomato industry in northern Italy and in Extremadura is integrated and managed by an only one decision center (almost the total chain is mecanized) * The manufactured products in northern Italy and in Estremadura are based on capital intensity (E. G. : the production cost of a 700 gr jar of Italian passata) • The EU products (semi-processed and finished) are technical and, consequently, very difficult to imitate Concerning the fresh tomatoes: * Experts think that Morocco has reached its highest level (problem of water, land use, increasing of fuel prices…) * The domestic markets for fresh and processed products in the mediterranean countries are in great demand 13

The functioning of the EU processed tomato system 14 The functioning of the EU processed tomato system 14

Production costs of a 700 gr jar of passata (Italy, 2005 campaign) 15 Production costs of a 700 gr jar of passata (Italy, 2005 campaign) 15

Conclusion and discussions: For the tomato processing industry of the EU-15: this activity is Conclusion and discussions: For the tomato processing industry of the EU-15: this activity is not seriously endangered by the Med. Countries. In fact, the threat comes from the developping countries (China, India, Brazil…) For the tomato processing industry of the Mediterranean countries: we predict an increasing foreign trade deficit for several reasons: * If the Med. Countries remove their custom duties, the imports from EU will probably blow up (see the Algerian case) * The EU policies concerning the processed tomatoes are evolving towards a stronger efficiency (Staff Working Document, Brussels, 24/01/07) Is it possible to extend the processed tomato example to other products ? Yes, probably to all products able to be mecanized (peaches and nectarines, some citrus fruits , dried grapes… and perhaps dried plums) 16

Custom tariffs of some Mediterranean countries for processed tomato products 17 Custom tariffs of some Mediterranean countries for processed tomato products 17

The future of the EU processing tomato policies ? 18 The future of the EU processing tomato policies ? 18

Changes in land use in Emilia-Romagna 19 Changes in land use in Emilia-Romagna 19

Towards a reform of the EU processed tomato common market: the issue The EU Towards a reform of the EU processed tomato common market: the issue The EU policy which manages the tomato processing industry is the agreement N° 2699/2000. This agreement set up a system know as « double threshold for Guaranteed Maximum Quantity » . Under this system, the payments received by farmers include: • A commercial price negotiated between POs and processors (around € 35 -40/t of raw tomatoes) • And a subsidy (€ 34. 5/t of raw tomatoes) paid to producers through the Pos The big issue is the subsidy which appears, at the same time, too low for resolving social and economic problems (in Italy for instance) and too high in some other places (in Extremadura) because it attracts new producers. The Commission (Staff Working document, Brussels, 24/01/07) proposes to replace the subsidy by a « decoupling » (single farm payments that are based on a subsidy/ha, independant from production, and calculated on declared areas from for example the period 2001 -2002 -2003)

Three leader-firms: a financial presentation 21 Three leader-firms: a financial presentation 21