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Immigrants and Boomers rediscovery of shared destiny in a new future of hope Dowell Immigrants and Boomers rediscovery of shared destiny in a new future of hope Dowell Myers School of Policy, Planning, and Development

The Big Questions What is the realistic hope about our immigrant future? What does The Big Questions What is the realistic hope about our immigrant future? What does it mean for Baby Boomers and voters today? How can we rekindle a sense of common purpose?

Our Historic and Future Transition TURMOIL Post 1970 Loss of Common Purpose Despair about Our Historic and Future Transition TURMOIL Post 1970 Loss of Common Purpose Despair about Trends Rediscovery of Interdependence Rediscovery of Hope Common Investment for a Better Future

Turmoil and Dismay 1. Economic disappointment post-1973 2. Vietnam and Watergate--loss of trust 3. Turmoil and Dismay 1. Economic disappointment post-1973 2. Vietnam and Watergate--loss of trust 3. Cultural fragmentation counter-culture; multiculturalism; and more 4. Concentrated calamities in California, 1990 -94 – natural disasters – social disruptions – deep recession & house price collapse

and now the Crisis of the Two Demographic Challenges 5. Revival of immigration amplifies and now the Crisis of the Two Demographic Challenges 5. Revival of immigration amplifies all the other fears 6. Baby boomer retirements fiscal and economic disaster

The Baby Boomer CRISIS Double decades of 30% increase The Baby Boomer CRISIS Double decades of 30% increase

The Growing Weight of Seniors Ratio of Seniors per 1000 Working-Age Residents, ages 25 The Growing Weight of Seniors Ratio of Seniors per 1000 Working-Age Residents, ages 25 -64 Californi a Seniors per 1, 000 US 67% increase in 20 years, 2010 -30 2010 1900 1950 Year 2000 Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 3. 2

Labor Force Slow Down Annual Percentage Growth % 1970 -1990 Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Labor Force Slow Down Annual Percentage Growth % 1970 -1990 Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 3. 3 1990 -2010 -2030 California US

The Politics of Discouragement The Politics of Discouragement

Spending and Taxes in California Dollars per Capita (2000 Dollars) By Age, 2000 Spending Spending and Taxes in California Dollars per Capita (2000 Dollars) By Age, 2000 Spending Taxes Age Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 9. 1; Ron Lee et al. (2003)

Immigrants a Burden or a Benefit? Percent of White Voters who Believe Immigrants a Immigrants a Burden or a Benefit? Percent of White Voters who Believe Immigrants a Burden 1998 2004 Change Liberals 40 29 -11 Conservatives 54 64 +10 -14 -35 +21 Gap (L – C) Source: PPIC Statewide Survey; Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 7 & Table B. 3

Alternative Projections of Future Shares of CA Electorate Fixed Voting Rates 2000 2020 Year Alternative Projections of Future Shares of CA Electorate Fixed Voting Rates 2000 2020 Year Reaching 50% White 70. 4% 56. 9% 2031 Latino 14. 5 24. 2 2073 Asian 7. 4 11. 4 --- Black 7. 8 7. 4 --- Total 100 --- Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Table 7. 3

The Rediscovery of Hope about Immigration and the Future The Rediscovery of Hope about Immigration and the Future

The Ultimate Question is What Future Do We Believe? DESPAIR HOPE • Accelerating Immigration The Ultimate Question is What Future Do We Believe? DESPAIR HOPE • Accelerating Immigration • Mostly New Immigrants • Concentration of Newcomers’ Characteristics • Protection of Isolated Self Interest • Steady Immigration • Mostly Settled Immigrants • Concentration of Upwardly Mobile Characteristics • Shared Destiny and Common Interest

The Key Changes…. The end of immigration acceleration More long-settled immigrants Upward mobility after The Key Changes…. The end of immigration acceleration More long-settled immigrants Upward mobility after longer residence

Immigration is Leveling Off 1980=100 Source: Dowell Myers compilation from 1990 and 2000 censuses Immigration is Leveling Off 1980=100 Source: Dowell Myers compilation from 1990 and 2000 censuses and American Community Survey; also Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 3. 8.

Expectations of Foreign-Born Share in California Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 2. 2 Expectations of Foreign-Born Share in California Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 2. 2

The Longer Settlement of the Immigrant Population Percent of Total California Population 40% 30+ The Longer Settlement of the Immigrant Population Percent of Total California Population 40% 30+ Years in US 20% 20 -29 Years 10 -19 Years 10% Recent Immigrants 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Decennial census to 1970 -2000; CDF 5. 0 California Demographic Futures 2030

Upward Mobility of Latinos in CA HS Diploma English Proficiency Above Poverty Recent Immigrants Upward Mobility of Latinos in CA HS Diploma English Proficiency Above Poverty Recent Immigrants 10 -19 Years 20 -29 Years 30+ Years Homeownership U. S. Citizen Actual Voters 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 6. 1

Blinded by the Concentration of Newcomers Share of Foreign-Born Who Are Recently Arrived Los Blinded by the Concentration of Newcomers Share of Foreign-Born Who Are Recently Arrived Los Angeles 53% (1990) Des Moines 61% (2000) Atlanta 61% Charlotte NC 64% Los Angeles 35% Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 6 (2000)

Turning Demographics From Problem Into Solution Rediscovery of the Hope Needed to Solve Our Turning Demographics From Problem Into Solution Rediscovery of the Hope Needed to Solve Our Shared Problems Immigration inflow no longer accelerating Greater benefits of settled immigrants Surprising upward mobility by immigrants Favorable return on education investments

The Rediscovery of Common Purpose The Rediscovery of Common Purpose

Intergenerational Social Contract Children’s Education $$ Seniors’ Pensions Health Care $$ Home-Sellers the cycle Intergenerational Social Contract Children’s Education $$ Seniors’ Pensions Health Care $$ Home-Sellers the cycle of roles Mature Adults: Maximum Financial $$ Contributions Replacement Workers New Taxpayers $$ New Home Buyers Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Chapter 9

Who’s Going to Buy Your House? Myers’ Projection for 2020 Number of Buyers Less Who’s Going to Buy Your House? Myers’ Projection for 2020 Number of Buyers Less Sellers Net buyers Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander Black Non-Hispanic White Net sellers Source: Immigrants and Boomers, Figure 11. 3

The New Story The Old Story TURMOIL Post 1970 Loss of Common Purpose Despair The New Story The Old Story TURMOIL Post 1970 Loss of Common Purpose Despair about Trends Rediscovery of Mutual Support Rediscovery of Hope Common Investment for a Better Future

. . it's a new day for California . . it's a new day for California

Thank You For more information Google “popdynamics” Dowell Myers School of Policy, Planning, and Thank You For more information Google “popdynamics” Dowell Myers School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California 2007 Thomas & Znanecki Award

Major Contributions of Immigrants and Boomers 1. Linking Baby Boomers and Immigrants in mutual Major Contributions of Immigrants and Boomers 1. Linking Baby Boomers and Immigrants in mutual self-interest: home buying, taxpayers, etc. 2. The politics of how people “know” the future: reasons for despair and hope 3. Effects of immigration acceleration, followed by steady state -- past and future 4. The surprising upward mobility of Latinos 5. A new theory of the changing social contract 6. A longer and more integrated view of immigration and society