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Global Education Market Presentation To World Education Market Lisbon 2003 Ronald Perkinson International Finance Global Education Market Presentation To World Education Market Lisbon 2003 Ronald Perkinson International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group) www. ifc. org / www. ifc. org/edinvest

The Global Market • $2. 2 trillion+ total – one third of market in The Global Market • $2. 2 trillion+ total – one third of market in USA – approx 15% only in the developing world • Teachers – 5% of global labor force • Primary & Secondary Education – 83% of students in developing countries • Tertiary & Adult Education – 90 million tertiary students worldwide, or less than 20% of all 18 to 25 yr olds Sources: Merrill Lynch 2000; OECD 2000/ 01; UNESCO 2000/01; IFC

The Second Millennium Development Goal Achieving Universal Primary Education – ‘Education For All’ The The Second Millennium Development Goal Achieving Universal Primary Education – ‘Education For All’ The EFA commitment undertakes by 2015 to: § Ensure universal primary education § Eliminate gender disparities in primary and secondary education § Improve early childhood care and education § Ensure equitable access to “life skills” programs § Achieve a 50 percent increase in adult literacy § Improve all aspects of the quality of education

Trends in Sub-Sector Lending Category - Fiscal Year By Education Level Percent 63 - Trends in Sub-Sector Lending Category - Fiscal Year By Education Level Percent 63 - 69 70 - 79 80 - 89 2 13 19 38 50 Secondary Education 52 19 8 15 15 Vocational postsecondary education 24 33 27 9 7 Tertiary education 20 30 43 25 15 2 5 3 13 13 Primary Education including teacher training Other education * 90 - 99 00 - 02 * = Projects supporting more than one level of education or projects such as those supporting lifelong learning that do not fit well into one of the other categories Source: World Bank 2002 65% 22%

Students in Primary School Millions Worldwide Nos 1990 600 2000 680 % In School Students in Primary School Millions Worldwide Nos 1990 600 2000 680 % In School 80% 83% 127 113 Students Not In School (Girls 67 or 60%) (Boys 46 or 40%) (Less developed countries 97%) Source: UNESCO 2000; World Bank 2002

HIV/AIDS! • By EO 2001, over 40 million people with HIV / AIDS • HIV/AIDS! • By EO 2001, over 40 million people with HIV / AIDS • Teachers – the most infected profession in SADC – (32% in Kwa Zulu; 30% in Malawi & Botswana) • Africa – 10% of world’s population – but has 90% of new HIV cases • Also spreading in India, China, Eastern Europe and Russia • AIDS orphans = 15. 6 million – most in Sub Saharan Africa Sources: World Bank 2002; Christian Aid 2001

World Population Growth Year Population Time Per Billion Yr 1 250 m – 1800 World Population Growth Year Population Time Per Billion Yr 1 250 m – 1800 1 b 1800 yrs 1930 2 b 130 yrs 1960 3 b 30 yrs 1975 4 b 15 yrs 1988 5 b 13 yrs 2001 6 b 13 yrs Source: “ 6 Billion Human Beings: ” - Musée de l'Homme Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris –France

Balancing Education Sector Needs. . . . With Fiscal Realities • Markets do not Balancing Education Sector Needs. . . . With Fiscal Realities • Markets do not solve problems of equity / fairness – need for the public sector to address • Economic decline – available resources for education shrink • Governments reconciling education fiscal realities and demographic trends • ‘Supplementary’ costs – shifting to parents and students – and increasing annually • 1% annual change – global public and private financing Sources: World Bank & IFC; OECD 2000; Statistics Canada 2002

Funding Comparatives . . . the most populous nations India China LAC UK USA Funding Comparatives . . . the most populous nations India China LAC UK USA Total Population approx 1000 1300 520 60 280 Public Expenditure on Education ($B) 15 23 94 72 480 0. 6% 1. 0% 4. 2% 3. 2% 22% % Global Budget Per 10 m Population $0. 15 b $0. 2 b $1. 8 b $12 b $17 b Sources: UNESCO 1999 & 2000; World Bank 2001; US Department of Education 2001; Department of Education & Skills UK, 2002

Global Giants – Lack of Supply in the world’s most populous countries China: – Global Giants – Lack of Supply in the world’s most populous countries China: – 10 to 11% gross enrollment – Yr 2001 – 7. 2 m students enrolled – admitted 2. 2 m new students in Yr 2002 – 26 m students currently in high school – 15 m students to enroll over next 4 years India: – 5 to 6% gross enrollment – 10, 900 HEI’s (includes 237 Deemed Universities) – over 8 m students enrolled – some programs - 6000 applicants per place Sources: Unesco 2000; India Planning Commission Report 2002; China Dept of Statistics 2002

Higher Education . . . the five converging forces of change Five major converging Higher Education . . . the five converging forces of change Five major converging forces on higher education • The increasing importance of knowledge • The further impact of globalization • The impact of increasing competition • Continuing Information & Communications Technologies revolution • Decline in public financing – sourcing alternative financing • Source: ‘World Bank ‘Constructing Knowledge Economies” 2002; The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002; IFC

Higher Education . . . other important trends • Unmet demand & supply – Higher Education . . . other important trends • Unmet demand & supply – demographic pressures • Public financing declining – burden shifting from the State to Higher Education Institutions • Pressures on governance – global market paradigm – increased competition – rising costs – funding uncertainty • Systems shift towards education and training – equipping learners with different ‘higher-order skills’ • Importance of general / liberal education more pronounced • Impact of use of technologies and Internet

Globalization, Accreditation, Internationalization. . & GATS Globalization – global market – cross-border competition – Globalization, Accreditation, Internationalization. . & GATS Globalization – global market – cross-border competition – GATS Accreditation – in over 80 countries – setting quality standards & compliance Internationalization – cross-border exchange of curriculum, faculty and students Source: ‘The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002; World Bank & IFC 2003; AUCC – Association of Universities & Colleges In Canada - 2002

Students Studying Abroad • Over 1. 6 million international tertiary students abroad in OECD Students Studying Abroad • Over 1. 6 million international tertiary students abroad in OECD countries (est $30 billion market) • Over 580, 000 in USA – approx 35% of world total (6. 4% inc from Yr 2000) – 6740 in top 20 US business schools • Other significant share of global market include – UK (14%) Other significant share of global market include – – Germany ( 12% ) – Australia ( 9% ) – France ( 8% ) • UK in 2001, students from China increased by 67% from previous year – 31% increase from India • New Zealand 300% growth between 1999 and 2002 Sources: Chronicle 2003; OECD; IFC Staff Research

Lifelong Learning Changing Student Profiles • Adults with tertiary qualifications – increased from 22% Lifelong Learning Changing Student Profiles • Adults with tertiary qualifications – increased from 22% to over 40% today in OECD countries • Over 40% of undergraduates in US & 30% of Canada’s undergraduate students are over 25 yrs • Yr 2000 – over 20% of first year university students were over 27 yrs – in Australia, NZ, Denmark, Norway & Sweden • Lifelong learning attracting new learners – more diversified – older and part time students Sources: OECD 2000; ‘The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002;

Student Financing • Over 60 countries have student loans – mostly public schemes • Student Financing • Over 60 countries have student loans – mostly public schemes • Governments must see loan schemes important – can improve access and opportunity • Many barriers exist for private sector banks • Future government underwriting of risk is crucial – for mobilizing private banks

Faculty – Looming Issues • By 2010 student demographics increase – growing competition looming Faculty – Looming Issues • By 2010 student demographics increase – growing competition looming for Scholars – increasing global pressure on staffing • Canada – 33% of faculty over 55 yrs – 50% are 40 to 54 yrs • In US, 30% are over 55 years – and 27% are 40 to 54 yrs • Concern ‘brain drain’ will occur – higher salary incentives • Private sector – lures scholars with higher salaries Source: ‘The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002;

Distance Education – High Growth • Tertiary distance ed. – world’s fastest growing sub-sector Distance Education – High Growth • Tertiary distance ed. – world’s fastest growing sub-sector • Canada – 500, 000 students – many on-line • Asia has 3. 5 m students (2000) – China Central Radio and TV University has 1. 5 million – enrolls over 100, 000 each year • 30% of all tertiary courses in Russia are distance – 26% in Turkey – 37% in Thailand – LAC has over 1 million tertiary distance education students – Europe approx 900, 000 • UK Open University – produces approx 9% of undergraduates in Britain with 5% of the national university operating budget Source: ‘The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002; World Bank & IFC;

On-Line Education – steady growth • African Virtual University – EO Yr 2001, 24000 On-Line Education – steady growth • African Virtual University – EO Yr 2001, 24000 students since 1997, from 17 countries – Yr 2003 restructured – shared site by 34 universities – RMIT Melbourne latest program provider • Tengtu China – 12, 000 schools connected early 2003 – networking 6 million students • Yr 2002, 19% of corporate training in US was on-line • Over 2000 United States HEI’s offer courses today • Globally – a $150 billion industry by 2025 Sources: Merril Lynch 2000; World Bank, WBI & IFC 2003

Evolving Structures Public Institution Non-profit Institution Potential Donors I. P. & O/ship Not-For-Profit Entity Evolving Structures Public Institution Non-profit Institution Potential Donors I. P. & O/ship Not-For-Profit Entity $$$ Limited Investment Ownership $$$ Strategic Alliances For Profit Entity $$$ Private Investment

The Parallel Training Universe • Global I. T. companies / I. T. training providers The Parallel Training Universe • Global I. T. companies / I. T. training providers – operate outside certified higher ed credentials and accreditation. • In Yr 2000, global I. T. companies ‘certified’ 1. 6 million students worldwide with 2. 4 million certificates in Information Technologies. • Corporate & government training – one third of the US for-profit industry – but no threat competitively. • China – this sub-sector is worth US$1 billion annually Source: ‘The Changing Enterprise’ – ACE 2002; Rothstein, Economic Policy Institute 2003

Future Outlook • Financing of education will tighten – demographics outweigh fiscal realities – Future Outlook • Financing of education will tighten – demographics outweigh fiscal realities – growth in non-public financing • Millennium goals – continued emphasis to 2015 • Knowledge societies and lifelong learning – important for economic development – new systems for education and trg • Globalization and internationalization – changing the future landscape of higher education, national and cross-border • ICT’s and the Internet – optimizing use of new technologies – models advancing quality-based mass education delivery