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Expansions to NOAA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability Progress in 2008 October 7, 2008 Expansions to NOAA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability Progress in 2008 October 7, 2008 Paula Davidson*, Rohit Mathur, Jeff Mc. Queen, Scott Jackson, Ivanka Stajner, Ken Carey *NWS Manager, Air Quality Forecast Capability 1

Outline Background on NAQFC Progress in 2008 - Operational products: - Experimental products - Outline Background on NAQFC Progress in 2008 - Operational products: - Experimental products - Developmental testing Coordination with Partners Looking Ahead 2

National Air Quality Forecast Capability Current and Planned Capabilities, 10/08 • • Improving the National Air Quality Forecast Capability Current and Planned Capabilities, 10/08 • • Improving the basis for AQ alerts Providing AQ information for people at risk FY 08 Prediction Capabilities: • • • Operations: Ozone, expanded from EUS to CONUS, 9/07 Smoke implemented over CONUS, 3/07 Experimental testing: Ozone upgrades Smoke predictions over AK Developmental testing: components for particulate matter (PM) forecasts 2007: O 3, smoke 2005: O 3 Near-term Operational Targets: • Ozone, smoke coverage extended Nationwide Longer range: • • • Quantitative PM 2. 5 prediction Extend air quality forecast range to 48 -72 hours Include broader range of significant pollutants 3

National Air Quality Forecast Capability End-to-End Operational Capability Model Components: Linked numerical prediction system National Air Quality Forecast Capability End-to-End Operational Capability Model Components: Linked numerical prediction system Operationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer • NAM mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMM • CMAQ for AQ; HYSPLIT for smoke Observational Input: • • NWS weather observations; NESDIS fire locations EPA emissions inventory Gridded forecast guidance products • • • On NWS servers: www. weather. gov/aq and ftp-servers On EPA servers Updated 2 x daily Verification basis, near-real time: • • AQI: Peak Oct 4 Ground-level AIRNow observations Satellite smoke observations Customer outreach/feedback • • State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA Public and Private Sector AQ constituents 4

Progress in 2008 Operational Products: – Ozone: Coast-to-Coast (CONUS) guidance implemented 9/07; 2008 updates Progress in 2008 Operational Products: – Ozone: Coast-to-Coast (CONUS) guidance implemented 9/07; 2008 updates for emissions, WRF-NMM – Smoke: CONUS guidance implemented 3/07; 12/07 upgrade to full vertical resolution Experimental Products: – – Ozone: CB-05 chem mechanism, developing prototypes for AK, HI Smoke: Expanded coverage to AK, 6/08 Developmental Products: – Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluations. (CONUS) • – – Prototypes for AK, HI (ozone); HI (smoke) Dust and smoke inputs: testing dust contributions to PM 2. 5 from global sources • • – CMAQ (aerosol option), testing CB 05 chemical mechanism Preliminary tests combining dust with CMAQ-aerosol Case studies combining smoke inputs with CMAQ-aerosol R&D efforts continuing in chemical data assimilation, real-time emissions sources, advanced chemical mechanisms 5

Verification Statistics: Example Max 8 -hr O 3 081507 Fraction Correct: 0. 92 Eder Verification Statistics: Example Max 8 -hr O 3 081507 Fraction Correct: 0. 92 Eder et al. 2008 Max 8 -hr O 3 081507 6

Progress from 2005 to 2007: Ozone Prediction Summary Verification 2005 Fraction Correct NEUS Operational Progress from 2005 to 2007: Ozone Prediction Summary Verification 2005 Fraction Correct NEUS Operational Initial Operational Capability (IOC) Operational, NE US Domain 2005 Experimental, Eastern US EUS Approved 8/05 to replace IOC (NE US) in operations 2006 Operational, Eastern US EUS 2007 Experimental, Contiguous US CONUS Approved 9/07 to replace Eastern US config in operations 7

Progress from 2007 to 2008: CONUS O 3 Prediction Summary Verification 2007 CONUS Contiguous Progress from 2007 to 2008: CONUS O 3 Prediction Summary Verification 2007 CONUS Contiguous US (CONUS) Implemented 9/07 to replace Eastern US config in operations JJA: 0. 974 2008 CONUS Experimental Operational CONUS, wrt 85 ppb Threshold JJA: 0. 980 8

Prediction Accuracy and Ozone Thresholds Effect on FC: moderate reduction 9 Prediction Accuracy and Ozone Thresholds Effect on FC: moderate reduction 9

Smoke Predictions Summary: Warm Season, 2007 and 2008 2007 • FC generally > 0. Smoke Predictions Summary: Warm Season, 2007 and 2008 2007 • FC generally > 0. 7 • TS cum = 0. 159; Target = 0. 08 (Column verification) • FC Target not established for qualitative smoke tool • Based on satellite AOD; column verification only 2008 • TS cum = 0. 133 • FC generally > 0. 6 10

Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental Testing Experimental Predictions Experimental Operational Publicly available, real-time Ozone: Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental Testing Experimental Predictions Experimental Operational Publicly available, real-time Ozone: · CMAQ with advanced gas-phase chemical mechanism CB 05 – more comprehensive Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) reactions weather. gov/aq-expr weather. gov/aq – challenge: more O 3 with CB 05 – regional implications: CA, NE US Smoke: · Testing over AK domain – new GOES-W smoke verification in development – challenge: little fire activity in 2008 11

Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental vs. Operational O 3 at 85 ppb Experimental Operational Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental vs. Operational O 3 at 85 ppb Experimental Operational Experimental vs Operational, 85 ppb: FC decreases in exptl predictions 12

Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental vs Operational O 3 at 76 ppb Experimental Operational Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental vs Operational O 3 at 76 ppb Experimental Operational Experimental vs. Operational, 76 ppb: FC decreases in exptl predictions 13

Developmental Testing, Summer 2008 Developmental Predictions: Focus group access only, real-time as resources permit Developmental Testing, Summer 2008 Developmental Predictions: Focus group access only, real-time as resources permit fine particles PM 2. 5 Real-time Testing, Aerosols from NEI sources: · CMAQ, Gas-phase CB 05 June 10 · aerosol chemical reactions (AERO 4) with heterogeneous pathways · sea salt emissions and chemistry included in aerosol module CB-05 Expanded domains: · HI smoke · Exploring HI, AK ozone Developmental 14

Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Summary Verification, 2008 Emissions Correction August 16, 2008 August 17, 2007 Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Summary Verification, 2008 Emissions Correction August 16, 2008 August 17, 2007 15

Aerosol Summary: 2008 Lower threshold 16 Aerosol Summary: 2008 Lower threshold 16

Partnering with AQ Forecasters Focus group of state and local AQ forecasters: • Participate Partnering with AQ Forecasters Focus group of state and local AQ forecasters: • Participate in real-time developmental testing of new capabilities, e. g. aerosol predictions • Provide feedback on reliability, utility of test products • Emphasize local episodes/case studies • Meet regularly to examine test predictions, discuss feedback, potential improvements • Work together with EPA’s AIRNow & NOAA Forecaster Coordination: • WFO and NCEP/HPC forecasters provide weather information for partner AQ forecasters – Web-site for AQ forecasters, interactive discussion on event-driven basis 17

PHL O 3 and aerosol predictions -- Ryan, 2008 Experimental Ozone Guidance, 6/17 -9/10, PHL O 3 and aerosol predictions -- Ryan, 2008 Experimental Ozone Guidance, 6/17 -9/10, 1200 UTC Observed Mean: 64. 5 ppbv Operational Bias: +4. 8 ppbv Experimental Bias: +8. 3 ppbv Increased over-prediction consistent day-to-day as weather conditions changed. Developmental aerosol guidance, 7/12 -9/10, 1200 UTC Daily 24 -hr max 18

National Air Quality Forecast Capability Looking Ahead Nationwide ozone and particulate matter predictions • National Air Quality Forecast Capability Looking Ahead Nationwide ozone and particulate matter predictions • Expanding ozone & smoke to nationwide coverage, Target: FY 10 and • Begin quantitative particulate matter predictions, Target: FY 14 • Providing information Nationwide on when/where poor AQ is expected • Reducing losses to life (50, 000) each year from poor AQ • Reducing economic losses ($150 B each year) from poor AQ 19

National AQF Capability: Next Steps Developing Particulate matter components: • Smoke from large fires: National AQF Capability: Next Steps Developing Particulate matter components: • Smoke from large fires: experimental testing in AK, HI • Components for quantitative PM forecast capability: – Objective satellite products for verification (ongoing) – Aerosols predictions from anthropogenic source emissions in inventories: continued development/testing/analysis– testing advanced chemical mechanisms – Further component development, chemical data assimilation, dust, speciated fire emissions, “in-line” coupling of weather and AQ simulation – Developmental and experimental testing, integrated quantitative PM capability – Target operational implementation for initial PM forecasts, NE US: FY 14 Expanding, Improving Ozone forecast guidance • Closer coupling of AQ with NAM; treatments/resolution, horizontal boundary conditions… • Development of AK, HI capabilities; target operational implementation in FY 10 • Extend forecast range to Day 2 and beyond 20

Acknowledgments: AQF Implementation Team Members OCWWS OCIO OST/MDL Jannie Ferrell Cindy Cromwell, Allan Darling, Acknowledgments: AQF Implementation Team Members OCWWS OCIO OST/MDL Jannie Ferrell Cindy Cromwell, Allan Darling, Bob Bunge Jerry Gorline Marc Saccucci, Tim Boyer, Dave Ruth Saccucci, OST Ken Carey, Ivanka Stajner NESDIS/NCDC Alan Hall NOAA/OAR Jim Meagher Outreach, Feedback Data Communications Dev. Verification NDGD Product Development Program Support Product Archiving NOAA AQ Matrix Manager NCEP Jeff Mc. Queen, Pius Lee, Marina Tsidulko, Youhua Tang, Tsidulko, Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim *Sarah Lu *Brad Ferrier, *Dan Johnson, *Eric Rogers, *Hui-Ya Chuang *Hui-Ya Geoff Manikin John Ward, Brent Gordon, Chris Magee Robert Kelly, Bob Bodner, Andrew Orrison Bodner, * Guest Contributors EMC AQF model interface development, testing and integration Global data assimilation and feedback testing (NASA, NESDIS) WRF/NAM coordination Smoke Product testing and integration NCO transition and systems testing HPC coordination and AQF webdrawer NOAA/OAR Daewon Byun, Shaocai Yu, Daiwen Kang, Hsin-Mu Lin, Byun, Hsin-Mu David Wong, Daniel Tong, Tianfeng Chai Roland Draxler, Glenn Rolph, Ariel Stein Draxler, Rolph, CMAQ development, adaptation of AQ simulations for AQF HYSPLIT adaptations NOAA/NESDIS Shobha Kondragunta, Jian Zeng Kondragunta, Matt Seybold, Mark Ruminski Smoke Verification product development HMS product integration with smoke forecast tool EPA/OAQPS Chet Wayland, Phil Dickerson, Scott Jackson, Brad Johns AIRNow development, coordination with NAQFC EPA/ORD Rohit Mathur, Ken Schere, Jon Pleim, Tanya Otte, Mathur, Schere, Pleim, Otte, Jeff Young, George Pouliot, Brian Eder Pouliot, CMAQ development, adaptation of AQ simulations for AQF 21

Operational AQ forecast guidance www. weather. gov/aq CONUS Ozone Expansion Implemented September, 2007 Smoke Operational AQ forecast guidance www. weather. gov/aq CONUS Ozone Expansion Implemented September, 2007 Smoke Products Implemented March, 2007 Further information: www. nws. noaa. gov/ost/air_quality 22

Appendix 23 Appendix 23

Updates in 2008 Operational Products WRF update (March, 2008) – Size: Expanded domain by Updates in 2008 Operational Products WRF update (March, 2008) – Size: Expanded domain by 18% – Model Parameterizations: Implemented gravity wave mountain drag parameterization, modified horizontal advection for better mass conservation, Improved surface longwave radiation calculation, Improved soil moisture calculations OCONUS – Data assimilation: Upgraded GSI with NMM bkgd error covariances, more satellite obs Ozone Predictions: Emissions Updates (May, 2008) – Point, area and mobile source emissions: updated based on NEI (2005) and projected for the current year. • EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality on-road emissions estimates • EGU sources: 2006 CEM data projected for 2008. – Biogenic sources: updated with BEIS 3. 13 Smoke Predictions (December, 2007): – Increased vertical resolution: now at full NAM 60 -layer resolution – Increased computational efficiency, faster product delivery 24

Continuing Science Upgrades Improvements to the expanding NAQFC Continuing R&D required • OAR and Continuing Science Upgrades Improvements to the expanding NAQFC Continuing R&D required • OAR and EPA working actively with NWS to provide prototype capabilities for pre-operational development, testing experimental production, and implementation Assuring quality with science peer reviews: • Design review of major system upgrades (initial, yearly upgrades) • Diagnostic evaluations with field campaigns and evaluations • Publication of T&E in peer-reviewed literature Ozone Capability – Otte et al. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 367 -385 (2005) – Lee et al. , J Applied Meteorology and Climatology, in press (2007) – Mckeen et al. , J. Geophys. Res. 110, D 21307 (2005) Geophys. – Yu, et al. , J. Geophys. Res. (2007) Geophys. Smoke Tool – Prados et al. , J. Geophys. Res. 112, D 15201 (2007) Geophys. – Kondragunta et al. , submitted for publication – Rolph et al. , submitted for publication – Zeng and Kondragunta, ms. in preparation Kondragunta, – Ruminski, Kondragunta, Draxler and Zeng, in preparation Ruminski, Kondragunta, Zeng, 25

National Air Quality Forecast Capability Major Components: IOC NWP Model NAM/Eta-12 Weather Observations NOAA/NWS National Air Quality Forecast Capability Major Components: IOC NWP Model NAM/Eta-12 Weather Observations NOAA/NWS NWP Post-processors for AQ Modules EPA’s National AQ Module: Emissions Preprocessor PREMAQ NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD AQ Module: Air Quality Reactive Transport CMAQ Emissions Inventory: EPA/OAQPS IT /Comms NOAA/NWS and EPA/OAQPS NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD 26

Smoke Forecast Tool: What is it? Overview • Passive transport/dispersion computed with HYSPLIT & Smoke Forecast Tool: What is it? Overview • Passive transport/dispersion computed with HYSPLIT & WRF-NAM (or GFS, OCONUS). 24 -hr spin-up, 48 -hour prediction made daily with 6 Z cycle Fire Locations • NESDIS/HMS: Filtered ABBA product (only fires with observed associated smoke) Emissions • USFS’ Blue. Sky algorithm for emitted PM 2. 5 Smoke Transport/dispersion • HYSPLIT (Lagrangian); plume rise based on combustion heat and meteorology Verification • Based on satellite imagery for footprint of extent of observed smoke in atmospheric column exceeding threshold of detection 27

Smoke Forecast Tool Major Components NWP Model NAM/WRF-NMM Weather Observations NOAA/NWS NESDIS HMS Fire Smoke Forecast Tool Major Components NWP Model NAM/WRF-NMM Weather Observations NOAA/NWS NESDIS HMS Fire Locations NWP Post-processors for AQ Modules HYSPLIT Module: NOAA/OAR USFS’s Blue. Sky Emissions Inventory: USFS Verification: NESDIS/GASP Smoke 28

New Threshold and FC Good at Lower Threshold FC increase FC decrease Miss at New Threshold and FC Good at Lower Threshold FC increase FC decrease Miss at Lower Threshold Good at Lower Threshold Old Threshold d re P bs =O Good Miss at Lower Threshold New Threshold Prediction Miss Observation 29

Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Summary Verification, 2007 -2008 2007 2008 Emissions Correction 30 Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Summary Verification, 2007 -2008 2007 2008 Emissions Correction 30

Daily Aerosol Verification March 5 – 20, 2008 Note: sudden improvement from March 16 Daily Aerosol Verification March 5 – 20, 2008 Note: sudden improvement from March 16 31