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ESRC Seminar, Keele University, 11 th November 2009 What migration statistics can and can’t ESRC Seminar, Keele University, 11 th November 2009 What migration statistics can and can’t tell us: implications for labour market analysis Anne E. Green Tel: 024 7652 4113 Anne. [email protected] ac. uk Institute for Employment Research University of Warwick

 • • • Ø Ø Ø • Ø UK: key data sources No • • • Ø Ø Ø • Ø UK: key data sources No single data source provides comprehensive information on geographical mobility No population registration system – but elsewhere failure to deregister causes problems in measuring migration Survey and census sources International Passenger Survey (IPS) – measures flows of people entering and leaving the UK Estimates of Total International Migration – estimates of immigration and emigration Census of Population – decennial, no information on emigrants Labour Force Survey – weaker on short-term than long-term movers ad hoc local surveys – no comprehensive sampling frame Administrative sources National Insurance numbers registered to overseas nationals Worker Registration Scheme (covering A 8 countries) – but not everyone registers Local surveys How representative are they?

LGA resource guide: Strategic importance of migration (1) Definitional issues § Lack of clarity LGA resource guide: Strategic importance of migration (1) Definitional issues § Lack of clarity leads to confusion § UN definition: an ‘international’ migrant is someone who changes his or her country of residence for at least a year; interest in shortterm migrants also § Country of birth: remains consistent for each individual § Nationality: more fluid – individuals can change nationality and UK nationals can hold more than one nationality Legislative and policy framework § Sets context for legal migration to UK § EU freedom of movement: cross-border mobility for EU citizens § Tightening of controls at borders of EU § Points Based System (PBS): to manage migration from outside the EEA – previously work permits § Other routes: Asylum route; Students; Family reunion; Illegal migration

Blurring between different types of mobility Short-term international mobility is an increasingly important aspect Blurring between different types of mobility Short-term international mobility is an increasingly important aspect of workers’ mobility alongside conventional ‘permanent’ relocation

Strategic importance of migration (2) International migration to and from the UK, 1997 -2006 Strategic importance of migration (2) International migration to and from the UK, 1997 -2006 (source: ONS, TIM)

Strategic importance of migration (3) Migrant workers and the labour market § Recent focus Strategic importance of migration (3) Migrant workers and the labour market § Recent focus of attention on A 8 migrants § Labour market impacts: positive or negative § Consensus to date: migrant workers complement the local labour force rather than substitute for it § Employers and migrants as ‘gainers’ from migration § Uneven sectoral distribution of migrant workers § Uneven occupational distribution § Role of changing economic conditions – downturn in inflows of A 8 migrants § Impacts on cohesion: ‘recessionary racism’

Key sources of information and intelligence (1) Introduction § No single data source provides Key sources of information and intelligence (1) Introduction § No single data source provides comprehensive information on migration at national, regional and local levels – hence need to refer to a variety of sources and triangulate the findings § Official data provide a consistent overview across local areas § Local surveys and records fill gaps in knowledge – but inconsistencies across local areas because of different methodologies § Qualitative intelligence from local stakeholders supplements information from other sources

Key sources (2) Generic issues § Establishing migrant definitions and the coverage of data Key sources (2) Generic issues § Establishing migrant definitions and the coverage of data sources Stocks and flows § Stocks: number of migrants in a local area at a particular snapshot in time § Flows: moves ‘in’ and ‘out’; ‘gross’ and ‘net’ § Better information on inflows than on out-flows Residence and workplace issues § Are data on a residenceor a workplace- basis? (interpret alongside trends for neighbouring areas) Ongoing developments in data sources § Changes in policy, legislation, migration, recording systems § New developments – e. g. e-borders, UKSA report

Who is measured in counts of migrant stocks? • The most mobile groups are Who is measured in counts of migrant stocks? • The most mobile groups are the most difficult to capture in statistical data sources and shorter duration moves are more difficult to capture than longer duration ones Individuals’ contribution to a stock estimate of short-term moves Individuals x y X = start of move Y = end of move A x y B x C y y x D x y E Time T 1 T 2 T 3

Key sources (3) ONS statistics on international migration § § § IPS - International Key sources (3) ONS statistics on international migration § § § IPS - International Passenger Survey Only source measuring people entering and leaving the UK does not include all migrants (e. g. excludes most asylum seekers) only a sample interviewed based on initial intentions no sub-regional data Total International Migration (TIM) § Use of IPS to derive estimates of long-term immigration and emigration nationally § used in production of local mid year population estimates § International Migration and Population Statistics Programme (imps) –new methods for allocation of international migrants

Key sources (4) ‘Official’ Census and Survey sources § Census of Population comprehensive coverage Key sources (4) ‘Official’ Census and Survey sources § Census of Population comprehensive coverage and disaggregation to micro areas decennial captures migration in the year before the Census country of birth § § 2011: new questions on: month/year of entry to UK intended length of stay citizenship English language ability § § § LFS / APS § detailed quarterly data – including country of birth, when came to UK, nationality, economic activity, employment § difficult to cover the most mobile elements of the population in a survey § has been used to estimate the regional labour market impact of new migration upon employment and wages

Median wage growth in migrant dense occupations in the East Midlands (LFS 2001 -06) Median wage growth in migrant dense occupations in the East Midlands (LFS 2001 -06)

Employment growth in migrants dense industries in the East Midlands (LFS 2001 -06) Employment growth in migrants dense industries in the East Midlands (LFS 2001 -06)

WM: Migrant dense sectors & occupations: increasing migrant density → segmentation Migrant dense industries WM: Migrant dense sectors & occupations: increasing migrant density → segmentation Migrant dense industries § Manufacturing § Hotels & restaurants § Transport § Health & social work Employment change: § Manufacturing – overall employment decline Ø decreasing employment for UK nationals, increasing employment for migrants § Hotels & restaurants, Health & social work - growth in employment for UK nationals and migrants, but faster growth for migrants Ø Vulnerability of migrant dense sectors and occupations § Health professionals § Health Associate occupations § Healthcare, related personal service § Assemblers, routine operatives § Elementary cleaning occupations § Process operatives Employment change: • Health and related occupations growth in employment for UK nationals and migrants, but faster growth for migrants • Process, plant & machine operatives and elementary occupations decreasing employment for UK nationals, increasing employment for migrants

Key sources (5) Administrative sources (1) General § Provide up-to-date information at local level Key sources (5) Administrative sources (1) General § Provide up-to-date information at local level § Coverage of each source depends on regulations and practices associated with it § Do not identify when a person leaves the UK National Insurance Numbers (NINos) allocated to overseas nationals § NINo generally required by an individual looking to work or claim benefits § Disaggregation by gender, age and nationality (all) to local authority level § Good proxy for arrivals and economically active

NINo Registrations to Overseas Nationals entering the UK: EAST MIDLANDS by world area of NINo Registrations to Overseas Nationals entering the UK: EAST MIDLANDS by world area of origin

Key sources (6) Administrative sources (2) § § § Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) Covers Key sources (6) Administrative sources (2) § § § Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) Covers A 8 migrants Self-employed are not required to register Disaggregation by nationality, age, gender, wage rate, ‘sector’ and ‘occupation’ (non standard), planned duration of stay, dependants No requirement for workers to deregister Largely workplace based Work Permits and the PBS § Permits specific to a particular individual in a particular job § Employer applies for permit § Work permit data disaggregated by gender, age, nationality, ‘sector’ and ‘occupation’ (non standard) § Workplace based § PBS – 5 tiers (no data as yet)

WRS, 2004 -2006 Work permits, 2005 WRS, 2004 -2006 Work permits, 2005

Key sources (7) Registration and use of local services (1) Introduction § Measurements of Key sources (7) Registration and use of local services (1) Introduction § Measurements of ‘migration’ using such sources vary according to: Ø Remit of the service provided Ø Propensity of migrants to make use of that service § § § Registering with a GP Patient Data Registration System (PRDS) New registrations are given a flag 4 status if the previous address is outside the UK; this is ‘lost’ with subsequent registrations Age and gender recorded Includes children Whether and when migrants register

Key sources (8) Pupil Census data § Count of pupils in maintained schools in Key sources (8) Pupil Census data § Count of pupils in maintained schools in England § Unique Pupil Number (UPN) – details of age, gender, ethnicity, first language, full postcode § Provides indication of settlement patterns of migrants with children (using a proxy of first language other than English) Local surveys § Supplement official statistics and administrative sources § Can provide information and intelligence on migrants’ Ø motivations, intentions, aspirations Ø experience of living and working in UK Ø use and need for services

Key sources (10) Issues in undertaking local surveys § § Ø Ø Ø § Key sources (10) Issues in undertaking local surveys § § Ø Ø Ø § § § No comprehensive sampling frame How to recruit the sample – various methods may not be representative of the population subject to (unknown) sampling error patterns and tendencies shown may vary over time Survey methodology – different biases: face-to-face interviews Web surveys self-completion questionnaires Focus groups Diaries and blogs Longitudinal approaches

Key sources (11) Other sources of local intelligence Ø Local authorities Ø Trade Unions Key sources (11) Other sources of local intelligence Ø Local authorities Ø Trade Unions Ø Employment agencies and other labour market intermediaries Ø Employers and Chambers of Commerce Ø Libraries Ø Migrants’ food shops Ø Citizens Advice Bureaux Ø Churches and other faithbased organisations Ø Private landlords, housing associations, estate agents Ø Community groups and organisations serving new arrivals and more established migrants Ø Police, community wardens Ø Fire Service Ø Colleges Ø Schools Ø Hospitals, health centres Ø Transport providers

Using migration data (1) Generic issues: § how the data were collected (data collection Using migration data (1) Generic issues: § how the data were collected (data collection methodology) § why the data were collected (rationale for data collection) § how information is recorded Key questions: § who is covered / not covered by the data set? § when does the information relate to? § where are individuals recorded? § what is the context for data collection (e. g. legal requirement, administrative process, voluntary registration)

Using migration data (2) Bringing data together Example of Herefordshire § ‘official’ survey and Using migration data (2) Bringing data together Example of Herefordshire § ‘official’ survey and administrative sources § SAWS data § Agricultural Census § annual surveys of farmers § Housing section of local authority, Homelessness Team

What ‘official’ and administrative sources can tell us § § Economic position Sector Occupation What ‘official’ and administrative sources can tell us § § Economic position Sector Occupation Calculations of migrant density § Labour market segmentation § Earnings § GVA contribution § Migrants’ position vis-àvis non-migrants § § § Country of birth Nationality Date of entry to UK Age Gender Household characteristics § Trends over time

What ‘official’ and administrative sources can’t tell us § Motivations of migrants § Insights What ‘official’ and administrative sources can’t tell us § Motivations of migrants § Insights into process § ‘Lived experience’ of migrants § Limited information on illegal working / vulnerability / exploitation § English language ability (but in 2011 Census) § Limited longitudinal perspective (5 quarters of LFS/APS) § Limited information on emigration § Issue of short-term movements § Limited information on demand side (i. e. from employers – although NESS provides context) § How jobs were obtained

Migrant workers in the West Midlands: Migrants’ motivations Overwhelmingly economic • Most important reason Migrant workers in the West Midlands: Migrants’ motivations Overwhelmingly economic • Most important reason for migration was to work/ find a job/ earn money: § 62% of sample § 75% of those not working prior to coming to the UK “Money is the most important thing. But not only of course. ” Other reasons all less important: § learning English § study § join family Exploration Careers across boundaries Employers’ motivations To address labour shortages – • 28% - a migrant worker was the most suitable applicant • 20% - migrant workers are more willing to do this type of work • 16% - migrant workers work harder • 14% - people from the UK are not interested in doing this type of work • 13% - overall lack of applicants § Mainly employed to meet ‘steady demand throughout the year’ (64%)

Employers’ descriptors of migrant workers: (evidence from the South East) Employers’ descriptors of migrant workers: (evidence from the South East)

BUT drawbacks of qualitative / local studies … and other issues § Limited information BUT drawbacks of qualitative / local studies … and other issues § Limited information on broader labour market context § Constraints on size of surveys – issues of generalising from a limited number of cases § How representative? • • Shortcomings in ‘official’ and administrative statistics also • • Free movement – why count? Access to administrative data becoming more problematic Value of mixed methods