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ESPON Open Seminar 2014 “Opportunities and threats for territorial cohesion: Blue Growth and Urban ESPON Open Seminar 2014 “Opportunities and threats for territorial cohesion: Blue Growth and Urban Poverty” Workshop 2 – Inclusive development ITAN project – Lessons learnt from the European Neighbour Regions (ENRs) Pierre BECKOUCHE (CIST)

Inclusive development Neighbourhoods: a attempt to ‘EU compatible’ indicators The ITAN database sets up: Inclusive development Neighbourhoods: a attempt to ‘EU compatible’ indicators The ITAN database sets up: § basic data on the Neighbour regions (Similiar to NUTS 2 or 3) § harmonised data so as to compare them to the Espon territories § a few composite indicators compatible with EU indicators of territorial development: Ø a “local HDI” Ø a “international openness” indicator (← ports’ international maritime traffic) 2

Inclusive development Local HDI: national and regional territorial discrepancies § National disparities, e. g. Inclusive development Local HDI: national and regional territorial discrepancies § National disparities, e. g. Ukraine v. Russia; Israel v. rest of near East § Regional disparities, e. g. Ø Mediterranean Western Balkans v. hinterlands Ø Western Turkey v. rest of country Ø Greater Tunis v. rest of country Ø Northern & central Algeria v. South § Classic littoral / hinterland issue 3

Opportunities & challenges A rising international openness… 100 Merchandise trade 1960 -2012 § All Opportunities & challenges A rising international openness… 100 Merchandise trade 1960 -2012 § All Neighbouring countries have opened their economy, especially since the 1990 s % imports + exports / GDP 90 80 70 60 Morocco Serbia 50 Syrian Arab Republic 40 Turkey 30 Ukraine 20 10 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 0 § In their national territory, the role of their gateway cities (international ports, airports, business services) has been rising § Deepening trade deficit & lower tariffs decline of financial resources for the State not a clear benefit for the major part of population and territories of the Neighbour countries 4

Opportunities & challenges A rising international openness… but not always with the EU % Opportunities & challenges A rising international openness… but not always with the EU % of Europe in the international port traffic § Baltic region very much polarised by EU countries § Ukraine exports more and more to the CIS and not to EU § Maghreb’s international maritime flows are focused on EU but less and less § Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean less and less polarised by the EU Did EU benefit from the Neighbour countries’ international openness? Ø as for EU’s trade balance: YES Ø as for EU’s share in these countries’ foreign trade: NO 5

Opportunities & challenges Transports: a broader vision of the region EU + ENRs… Demographic Opportunities & challenges Transports: a broader vision of the region EU + ENRs… Demographic density &main transport network Connexity 6

Opportunities & challenges … & a possible calculation of accessibility thus openness Accessible population Opportunities & challenges … & a possible calculation of accessibility thus openness Accessible population within 3 hours § In the Neighbourhoods, high potential markets in the dense coastal areas (e. g. Egyptian delta) § High accessibility in the costal Maghreb, namely thanks to the proximity of the European shore § The Black Sea area as a quite high accessibility spot (from Istanbul region to South Ukraine) Possible to build the ”international openness territorial indicator” 7

Additional evidence needed Building a composite indicator of “international openness” § Goal: addressing the Additional evidence needed Building a composite indicator of “international openness” § Goal: addressing the crucial issue of international connection (in particular to EU) of local territories of the Neighbourhoods § Three components: number of air seats available in international flights (2012), volume of international maritime flows by port (2011), FDI (average 2008 -2012) § Two methods: non-weighted / and weighted by time-distance accessibility Foreign direct investment International air traffic International port traffic 8

Additional evidence needed International openness (non weighted approach) Geography of international openness SNUTS 2 Additional evidence needed International openness (non weighted approach) Geography of international openness SNUTS 2 level, around 2010 Non weighted approach: § highlights the agglomeration effects: the areas where airports and ports are located benefit from these infrastructures as a motor to participate in the global economy Result: impressive position of North -Western Turkey Result: international openness of Israeli territories Result: low international openness of the Maghreban territories despite their high potential accessibility to the European territory Ø important avenues for territorial 9 development there

Additional evidence needed International openness (weighted approach, case of ports) International Port traffic, 2012 Additional evidence needed International openness (weighted approach, case of ports) International Port traffic, 2012 Values weighted by the time-distance to Ports Weighted by time-distance to international transport facilities (including EU) approach: § highlights accessibility: territories can benefit from large infrastructures if they have a short time-distance access to it (real networks speeds have been considered as well as border delays) Result: except Croatia, the Western Balkans are poorly connected to international maritime traffic Result: the long distances penalise the Russian territories Result: strong position of the major part of Turkey except the Eastern Result: large relegated territories in Maghreb except Northern Morocco Ø avenues for better logistic connection ports / hinterlands 10

As a conclusion European’s interest is that the whole map turns into red! Connexity As a conclusion European’s interest is that the whole map turns into red! Connexity 11