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EOS 365 Lecture 2 Science and Media EOS 365 Lecture 2 Science and Media

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Angus Reid Poll: March, 2007 Angus Reid Poll: March, 2007

US and Canadian Public Opinion Polls: 2008 -2012 From what you’ve read and heard, US and Canadian Public Opinion Polls: 2008 -2012 From what you’ve read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past four decades? Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Spring 2010 Fall 2010 Spring 2011 Fall 2011 Spring 2012 Yes 72% 65% 52% 58% 55% 62% 65% No 17% 20% 36% 26% 32% 26% 24% Not sure 11% 15% 13% 16% 12% 11% The Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy of the Gerald Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan The Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion

Public Opinion Poll: February 23, 2011 The Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy Public Opinion Poll: February 23, 2011 The Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy of the Gerald Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan The Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion

Public Opinion Poll: February 23, 2011 The Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy Public Opinion Poll: February 23, 2011 The Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy of the Gerald Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan The Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion

US Public Opinion Poll: Fall 2011 By Political Affiliation to 2012 Spring 2011 Fall US Public Opinion Poll: Fall 2011 By Political Affiliation to 2012 Spring 2011 Fall 2011 Spring 2012 Overall 55% 62% 65% Democrat 73% 78% 81% Republican 42% 47% 42% Independent 52% 55% 72%

Q: From where do we get our scientific information? A: The Media… Including the Q: From where do we get our scientific information? A: The Media… Including the Internet…

Some Issues with Science Journalism… 1) Scientists as communicators: Journalist: Is the sky blue? Some Issues with Science Journalism… 1) Scientists as communicators: Journalist: Is the sky blue? Scientist: 1) Assume there are no clouds; 2) Assume it is daytime. 3) According to Rayleigh Scattering theory … Journalist: So… is that a yes or a no? Scientist: It depends…

? Some Issues with Science Journalism… 2) Discourse in a scientific discipline Journal: International ? Some Issues with Science Journalism… 2) Discourse in a scientific discipline Journal: International Journal of Medical Sciences. 4(4): 223 -231 Authors: Anthony Azenabor, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee Patrick Kennedy, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee Salvatore Balistreri, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee Title: Chlamydia trachomatis Infection of Human Trophoblast Alters Estrogen and Progesterone Biosynthesis: an insight into role of infection in pregnancy sequelae Last two lines of abstract: The implications of these findings are that C. trachomatis infection of trophoblast may compromise cellular cholesterol biosynthesis, thus depleting the substrate pool for estrogen and progesterone synthesis. This defect may impair trophoblast functions of implantation and placentation, and consequently affect pregnancy sequelae.

3) Sensationalism? 3) Accuracy 3) Sensationalism? 3) Accuracy

But what an expert and who is not an expert? 4) Who is about… But what an expert and who is not an expert? 4) Who is about… NOVEMBER 22, 1998! A rise of five metres by Christmas is a very real possibility, he said.

5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Journalistic balance involves seeking out and reporting 5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Journalistic balance involves seeking out and reporting upon a variety of opinions associated with a news story Global warming increases threat of epidemics: Doug Struck. The Vancouver Sun. Vancouver, B. C. : May 6, 2006. pg. A. 14 "Global warming -- with an accompanying rise in floods and droughts -- is fueling the spread of epidemics in areas unprepared for the diseases, say many health experts worldwide. Mosquitoes, ticks, mice and other carriers are surviving warmer winters and expanding their range, bringing health threats with them. " "The incremental boost already detected in the Earth's temperature, for example, has expanded the range and activities of disease carriers. ” And then… "Some scientists see global warming as a natural cycle that will soon reverse itself, but for many governments, the handwriting is increasingly clear. ” http: //proquest. umi. com. ezproxy. library. uvic. ca/pqdweb? did=1033252181&sid=3&Fmt=3&client. Id=3916&RQT=309&VName=PQD

5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Sunday, January 14, 2001 Tuesday, January 23, 5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Sunday, January 14, 2001 Tuesday, January 23, 2001 Its Real! Its Not!

5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Maxwell Boykoff, Oxford University Boykoff, M. and 5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Maxwell Boykoff, Oxford University Boykoff, M. and J. Boykoff, 2004: Balance as bias: Global warming and the U. S. prestige press. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 125 -136. Examined: 1) New York Times, 2) The Washington Post, 3) Los Angeles Times, 4) The Wall Street Journal, from 1988 to 2002 Examined: Random sample of 636 articles from 3543 containing the words “global warming”

5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Boykoff, M. and J. Boykoff, 2004: Balance 5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Boykoff, M. and J. Boykoff, 2004: Balance as bias: Global warming and the U. S. prestige press. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 125 -136. Findings: 1) 2) 3) 4) 53% of the articles gave approximately equal emphasis to human activity versus natural fluctuations being able to explain global warming. 35% focused more on the human causation but still presented a “balanced” view by including the views of those who argued global warming was due to natural climate fluctuations. 6% reported only deep suspicions of any human contribution to global warming. 6% expressed the notion that humans were contributing to global warming.

5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Boykoff, M. , 2008: Lost in translation? 5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Boykoff, M. , 2008: Lost in translation? United States television news coverage of anthropogenic climate change, 1995 -2004. Climatic Change, 86(1), 1 -11. Examined: 1) ABC World News Tonight, 2) CBS Evening News, 3) NBC Nightly News, 4) CNN World. View, 5) CNN Wolf Blitzer Reports 6) CNN News Night from 1995 to 2004 Examined: Findings: Searched using the key words “global warming”, ”climate change” and “global climate change”. 70% of the network news stories reported ‘balanced’ coverage.

5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Naomi Oreskes, University of California, San Diego 5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Naomi Oreskes, University of California, San Diego Oreskes, N. , 2004: Beyond the ivory tower: The scientific consensus on climate change. Science, 306(5702), 1686, DOI: 10. 1126/science. 1103618. Examined: abstracts of 928 articles published in peer-reviewed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 containing the keywords “global climate change” Goal: To see if legitimate dissenting voices had been left out of the IPCC assessments and other reports. Findings: Not a single study disagreed with the consensus view concerning the role of greenhouse gases in causing the observed global warming

5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Anderegg, W. R. L. , J. W. 5) Journalistic Balance = inadvertent Journalistic Bias Anderegg, W. R. L. , J. W. Prall, J. Harold, & S. H. Schneider, 2010: Expert credibility in climate change: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online before print June 21, 2010. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1, 372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i)97– 98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii)the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.

The Scientific Method Observe, measure, describe 1) Observational Stage: 2) Explanation or Hypothesis Stage: The Scientific Method Observe, measure, describe 1) Observational Stage: 2) Explanation or Hypothesis Stage: new Explain with existing theories Use explanation to make prediction in another situation 3) Prediction Stage: Conduct experiment to test prediction 4) Experimental Stage: Explanation or Hypothesis stands Ask a question Succeeds Fails

Dissemination of Scientific Advances Scientific Journals Chief Editor: Journal of Climate In 2009: Andrew Dissemination of Scientific Advances Scientific Journals Chief Editor: Journal of Climate In 2009: Andrew Weaver, University of Victoria Editors: Robert Black William Collins Anthony Del Genio Nathan Gillett Paul J. Kushner Andy Pitman James Renwick Ramalingam Saravanan David Stephenson Shang-Ping Xie Michael Alexander, NOAA, USA Georgia Institute of Technology, USA University of California Berkeley, USA NASA GISS, USA CCCma, Canada University of Toronto, Canada Macquarie University, Australia NIWAR, New Zealand Texas A&M University, USA University of Exeter, United Kingdom University of Hawaii, ISA Associate Editors: 37 in Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, USA,

Dissemination of Scientific Advances Dissemination of Scientific Advances

Scientific Uncertainty 1) Aleatoric (irreducible) Uncertainty: Odds of rolling box cars will always be Scientific Uncertainty 1) Aleatoric (irreducible) Uncertainty: Odds of rolling box cars will always be 1 in 36. 2) Epistemic (reducible) Uncertainty: What numbers are on these dice? Zoom in to reduce uncertainty Uncertainty in climate predictions 1) Uncertainty in climate feedbacks 2) Uncertainty in future emissions scenarios Unknown unknowns

Obfuscating the Public November 2002: Frank Luntz memo to US Republican Party “Should the Obfuscating the Public November 2002: Frank Luntz memo to US Republican Party “Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate…” And… “You need to be even more active in recruiting experts who are sympathetic to your view, and much more active in making them part of your message. People are willing to trust scientists, engineers, and other leading research professionals, and less willing to trust politicians. If you wish to challenge the prevailing wisdom about global warming, it is more effective to have professionals making the case than politicians. ”

Manufactured grassroots organizations Otherwise known as: Astroturf organizations e. g. Swift Boat Veterans for Manufactured grassroots organizations Otherwise known as: Astroturf organizations e. g. Swift Boat Veterans for Truth • Issue press releases • Write letters to editor • Fill blogs with comments • Email reporters • Publish and disseminate reports from their ‘experts’ Friends of Science

Media interest in Global Warming Media interest in Global Warming

Media interest in Global Warming 1988: 1) Establishment of IPCC by WMO 2) Hansen Media interest in Global Warming 1988: 1) Establishment of IPCC by WMO 2) Hansen testimony before US Senate Committee 1990: 1) IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR) 2) Canada’s Green Plan for a Healthy Environment 1992: 1) Supplementary Report to The IPCC (FAR) 2) Rio Earth Summit and Creation of UNFCCC 1996: 1) IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) 1997: 1) Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC 2001: 1) IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) 2002: 1) Canada ratifies Kyoto Protocol 2005: 1) Hurricane Katrina 2) G 8 Meeting in Scotland devoted to Climate Change 2006: 1) 2005 sets new global mean temperature record 2) Al Gore — An Inconvenient Truth 2007: 1) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR 4) 2) Canadian government climate change action plan: Turning the Corner: an action plan to reduce Greenhouse gases and air pollution 3) Record Arctic Sea Ice Summer Meltback

A shift to accurate media reporting… Maxwell Boykoff, Oxford University Boykoff, M. , 2007: A shift to accurate media reporting… Maxwell Boykoff, Oxford University Boykoff, M. , 2007: Flogging a dead norm? Newspaper coverage of anthropogenic climate change in the United States and United Kingdom from 2003 to 2006. Area 39(4), 470 -481. Examined: Keyword 'climate change' & 'global warming'

Findings: US newspaper coverage of anthropogenic climate change by year, 2003– 2006 UK newspaper Findings: US newspaper coverage of anthropogenic climate change by year, 2003– 2006 UK newspaper coverage of anthropogenic climate change by year, 2003– 2006

Recent examples of outstanding investigative journalism: Charles Montgomery: Mr Cool. Nurturing doubt about climate Recent examples of outstanding investigative journalism: Charles Montgomery: Mr Cool. Nurturing doubt about climate change is big business. Globe and Mail, August 12, 2006. Sharon Begley: The Truth about denial. Newsweek, August 13, 2007. CBC Fifth Estate: The Denial Machine November 15, 2006 http: //www. cbc. ca/fifth/denialmachine/

Recent examples of outstanding websites: Desmogblog: www. desmogblog. com Real. Climate: www. realclimate. org Recent examples of outstanding websites: Desmogblog: www. desmogblog. com Real. Climate: www. realclimate. org Source. Watch: www. sourcewatch. org

Gallup poll conducted March 4– 7, 2010 in the US BBC poll conducted February Gallup poll conducted March 4– 7, 2010 in the US BBC poll conducted February 3 -5, 2010 in the UK

So what happened? 1) Emails hacked from the University of East Anglia & released So what happened? 1) Emails hacked from the University of East Anglia & released on November 20, 2009 2) Attempts to discredit the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: The “Gates” (Himalayan glaciers, Amazon, Netherlands sea level, African crop yields) Some key international events 1) 15 th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen, Denmark (December 7– 18, 2009) 2) 16 th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, Mexico (November 29– December 10, 2010) 3) US Senate debate of Cap and Trade legislation (Waxman-Markey Bill) approved by the House of Representatives on June 26, 2009

What’s the fear? 1) Fear of government regulation 2) Fear of growth of “Uber What’s the fear? 1) Fear of government regulation 2) Fear of growth of “Uber Government” in Geneva 3) Vested interests 4) Religious beliefs

Arctic Minimum September Sea Ice Extent September 21, 2005 September 16, 2007 September 16, Arctic Minimum September Sea Ice Extent September 21, 2005 September 16, 2007 September 16, 2012 Total extent = 3. 41 million sq km • 2007 beat previous 2005 record minimum by area greater than Ontario • 2007 below 1979 -2000 median by area greater than Ontario & Québec combined • 2012 beat previous 2007 record minimum by area greater than Alberta.

Arctic Minimum Sea Ice Extent in 2012 Arctic Minimum Sea Ice Extent in 2012

Arctic Minimum September Sea Ice Extent Arctic Minimum September Sea Ice Extent

Sea Ice Thickness September 07 – June 08 Sea Ice Thickness September 07 – June 08

Multiyear Arctic sea ice coverage Multiyear Arctic sea ice coverage

Multiyear Arctic sea ice coverage Multiyear Arctic sea ice coverage

Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly

Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly

Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly

Media interest in Global Warming Media interest in Global Warming

What is the role of Science in Policy • Science plays a crucial role What is the role of Science in Policy • Science plays a crucial role in informing policy deliberations • But science cannot prescribe policy outcomes The Conference of Parties, Takes note of the Copenhagen Accord of December 18, 2009 ". . . recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius. . . " Local issue of Victoria sewage

What is a scientist’s responsibility? • Public funds support much, if not most, university-based What is a scientist’s responsibility? • Public funds support much, if not most, university-based research • University scientists have a responsibility to communicate the results of, and respond to questions about, their research with those who ultimately fund it • Especially, given the emergence of the internet and blogosphere John Cook and skepticalscience. com • Scientific literacy in the general public is woeful • Do we sit around and complain? Or do we try to do something about it?

What is the responsibility of the public? The public have a responsibility to inform What is the responsibility of the public? The public have a responsibility to inform themselves. • Education is crucial to any successful democracy • Demand better access to government science Mike De Souza, Postmedia News, October 5, 2011 Oil lobby group got "help" from muzzled federal expert “Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government introduced new rules to control interviews with journalists by Environment Canada scientists in 2007 that resulted in an 80 per cent drop in media coverage of climate change science, according to an internal analysis that was released in 2010. ”

The social context November 22, 2011 Global warming is all a lie The fraudulent The social context November 22, 2011 Global warming is all a lie The fraudulent "global warming" swallowed by gullible governments has already wasted billions of dollars & will soon destroy all business. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's faked models, ignored UV energy, ozone layers & changes, solar winds & water vapour that creates clouds & energy & prevents the freezing of oceans, & avoided the truth. November 21, 2011 Greenhouse gases soar; no signs warming is slowed December 20, 2012 Soaring coal demand stokes emissions concerns January 8, 2013 US roasts to hottest year on record by landslide

The End The End