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Elections Elections

Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time n Party Role in Elections n The Nominating Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time n Party Role in Elections n The Nominating Processes – Watershed changes ’ 72, 90 s, ’ 07(? ) n 1968 Presidential Election – (smoky back rooms) – No binding primaries

Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time n Party Role in Elections n The Nominating Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time n Party Role in Elections n The Nominating Processes – Watershed changes ’ 72, 90 s, ’ 07(? ) n 1976 Presidential Election – Carter and the early Primaries – Win big up front and then build a campaign

Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time n Party Role in Elections n The Nominating Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time n Party Role in Elections n The Nominating Processes – Watershed changes ’ 72, 90 s, ’ 07(? ) n 2000 Presidential Election – Bush and his millions – Mc. Cain and his dynamism – Frontloading – Carter path closed?

Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time n Party Role in Elections n The Nominating Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time n Party Role in Elections n The Nominating Processes – Watershed changes ’ 72, 90 s, ’ 07(? ) – 2008 Presidential Election – Frontloading on steroids

Nomination processes n Primaries – – – Open poll sites Secret ballots 3 types Nomination processes n Primaries – – – Open poll sites Secret ballots 3 types § § § n Closed Primary Open Primary Blanket Primary Caucuses – – – Open selection Precinct meetings Hand vote or voice vote

Electoral College 50 Separate elections n Each state gets a delegation of votes n Electoral College 50 Separate elections n Each state gets a delegation of votes n – 2 for just being a state – ? ? For the population of the state § 53 for CA – Number of Electors equals the state’s delegation in the US House and the US Senate combined § 55 for CA

Electoral College Process Continued One long-distance vote by Electors – Electors meet in December Electoral College Process Continued One long-distance vote by Electors – Electors meet in December in State Capitols and cast votes n Report their votes to Congress by currier n Winner must win a majority of Electoral College n – No second chance balloting n If no Majority winner, it goes to the HOUSE – Each state votes as a whole – one vote per state

Electoral College Standard distribution of Electors: 48 States n State wide election n Winner-take-all Electoral College Standard distribution of Electors: 48 States n State wide election n Winner-take-all distribution – Winner of CA gets the whole 55 Electors

Electoral College Alternate System: Maine and Nebraska n 2 Electors go to state-wide winner Electoral College Alternate System: Maine and Nebraska n 2 Electors go to state-wide winner n 1 Elector goes to each Congressional district winner

Electoral College Alternate System: Maine and Nebraska n Illustration: State with 4 total Electoral Electoral College Alternate System: Maine and Nebraska n Illustration: State with 4 total Electoral Votes: n State wide vote: Rep. 55% Dem. 45% – Republicans get 2 Electors for carrying state. n District 1 vote: Rep. 65% Dem 35% – Republicans get 1 Elector for District 1 n District 2 vote: Rep. 45% Dem 55% – Democrats get 1 Elector for District 2 n Final State-wide outcome: – Republicans: 3 Electoral College votes – Democrats 1 Electoral College votes

Electoral College Alternate System: Illustration from 2004 election: (hypothetical) n State wide vote: Solid Electoral College Alternate System: Illustration from 2004 election: (hypothetical) n State wide vote: Solid Democratic victory n – Democrats get 2 Electors for carrying state. n 17 Districts vote Republican majorities – Republicans get 17 Electors n 36 Districts vote Democratic majorities – Democrats get 36 Electors n Final State-wide outcome: – Republicans: 17 Electoral College votes – Democrats 38 Electoral College votes

Electoral College n Who are Electors? ? ? – How are they selected? – Electoral College n Who are Electors? ? ? – How are they selected? – State delegates nomination to the winning party – Rules for final allocation vary by state and by party – Secretary of State’s web declaration

How does California select its electors? (from Secretary of State’s Web Page) n On How does California select its electors? (from Secretary of State’s Web Page) n On or before October 1 of the presidential election year, each party's nominee must file a list containing the names, addresses, and telephone numbers of the 55 electors pledged to him/her. Each party determines its own method for selecting electors. n In the Democratic Party, each congressional nominee and each US Senate nominee (determined by the last two elections) designates one elector. Elections Code § 7100

How does California select its electors? (from Secretary of State’s Web Page) n In How does California select its electors? (from Secretary of State’s Web Page) n In the Republican Party, the nominees for Governor, Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Controller, Attorney General, Secretary of State, U. S. Senate at the last two elections, Assembly Republican leader, Senate Republican leader, all elected officers of the Republican State Central Committee, national committeemen/women, President of Republican County Central Committee Chairmen’s Association, and chair or President of each Republican volunteer organization officially recognized by the Republican State Central Committee (RSCC) shall be electors. U. S. Senators, Representatives in Congress and persons holding office of trust or profit of the U. S. may not be electors. Any additional vacancies shall be filled by appointment of the chair of Republican State Central Committee according to Republican State Central Committee bylaws. Republican State Central Committee Chair must file the list with the Secretary of State by October 1, 2008. Elections Code § 7300

Electoral College Effects: State-by-state election strategies – Focus on Large States – Focus on Electoral College Effects: State-by-state election strategies – Focus on Large States – Focus on states with close elections n Potential ODD outcomes n – Narrow victory in relatively few LARGE states could spell victory for a candidate with only minority popular vote (1960) – In a very close race with close distributions in most states the candidate with the most small states wins even with a minority of popular votes (2000) n “My vote really doesn’t count” attitudes prevalent

Another proposal: Electoral College reform -- End-run n State-by-state laws committing to allocate Electors Another proposal: Electoral College reform -- End-run n State-by-state laws committing to allocate Electors based on National Popular vote instead of state-by-state vote. n Requires enough states to make up 270 electoral votes to be effective n Not making much progress yet

Congressional Elections n Members of the HOUSE, (Representatives) almost always win (incumbency advantage) – Congressional Elections n Members of the HOUSE, (Representatives) almost always win (incumbency advantage) – – – n Name recognition Franking Ease of fund-raising Senate not so safe – Higher profile opponents – Higher profile incumbents can’t hide controversial stance

State/Local Elections – Name Recognition – Party – Opinion leader’s endorsement n Non-partisan Elections State/Local Elections – Name Recognition – Party – Opinion leader’s endorsement n Non-partisan Elections – Personal contact – Name recognition

Political Action Committees n PACS (Political Action Committees) Evil Special Interests? OR… Organized individuals Political Action Committees n PACS (Political Action Committees) Evil Special Interests? OR… Organized individuals pursuing their interests?