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Connectivity and Super Supply Chains Supplier Transformation Forum Accelerating Supply Chain Integration: Supplier Training Connectivity and Super Supply Chains Supplier Transformation Forum Accelerating Supply Chain Integration: Supplier Training Impacts in Real Time Ken Dozier Executive Director, WESRAC 11/9/2006 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

The Western Research Application Center http: //ttc. usc. edu/ learningcenter/ presentations. asp Western Research The Western Research Application Center http: //ttc. usc. edu/ learningcenter/ presentations. asp Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

WIRED Project Department of Labor Workforce Innovation in Regional Economic Development initiative WIRED Project Department of Labor Workforce Innovation in Regional Economic Development initiative "Innovation, education and entrepreneurship: those are the keys that will open the door to challenging and rewarding jobs. " Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, February 2, 2006 WESRAC is a funded-partner of WIRED • Interface with industry/economic development academia to support/develop education/training resources • Create sustainable innovation economic development model • Identify candidate companies for projects Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

The Future “When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of The Future “When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight” Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric Source: John F. Welch, Jr. Chairman / CEO General Electric’s 2000 Annual Report Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Velocity “ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they Velocity “ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago” Source: Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency, South Bay Economic Development Partnership, “South Bay of Los Angeles County Workforce Perspective", October 2001 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

What is Knowledge ? Truth Universal Knowledge Belief Social Personal No Debate Converge on What is Knowledge ? Truth Universal Knowledge Belief Social Personal No Debate Converge on debate Diverge on debate Effect Cause Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Technologies Change Fast Bio-Tech Info-Tech Nano-Tech Source: SRI International 2002 Western Research Application Center Technologies Change Fast Bio-Tech Info-Tech Nano-Tech Source: SRI International 2002 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Anchor and Adjust “where. . . The ENIAC is equipped with 18, 000 vacuum Anchor and Adjust “where. . . The ENIAC is equipped with 18, 000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the future may have only 1, 000 vacuum tubes and weigh - Popular Mechanics, 1949 only 1. 5 tons” “This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us” - Western Union, Internal memo, 1876 “The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949 “I predict the internet. . . Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ” - Bob Metcalfe, 3 COM founder and inventor, 1995 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” - Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp. , 1977 Source: “The Future is Ours” Communication of the ACM, March 2001 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Global Competition 1. USA 3. Singapore 4. Iceland 5. Canada 6. Finland 7. Denmark Global Competition 1. USA 3. Singapore 4. Iceland 5. Canada 6. Finland 7. Denmark 8. Switzerland 9. Australia 10. Luxembourg 2. Hong Kong Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International 2005 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

6 -D Dimensions of Global Commerce Decentralization Denationalization Despacialization Disaggregation Demassification Disintermediation Source: The 6 -D Dimensions of Global Commerce Decentralization Denationalization Despacialization Disaggregation Demassification Disintermediation Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild March 2000 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond Source: Corporate Information Systems, Lynda Applegate, 1999 Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond Source: Corporate Information Systems, Lynda Applegate, 1999 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Exponential Economy An increasing attribute of our knowledge age Copyright SRI International 2002 Western Exponential Economy An increasing attribute of our knowledge age Copyright SRI International 2002 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Computing Synergy Possibility for creating N(2(N -1)-1) value 0 2 9 28 Copyright SRI Computing Synergy Possibility for creating N(2(N -1)-1) value 0 2 9 28 Copyright SRI International 2002 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Media Bandwidth 10^12 120 Gbps 12 X QDR Infini. Band 10^11 Async. Trans. Mode Media Bandwidth 10^12 120 Gbps 12 X QDR Infini. Band 10^11 Async. Trans. Mode (ATM) 10^4 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) DV Video MPEG Video NTSC Video Digital Music VHS Video 10^5 File sharing 10^6 Gaming 10^7 Internet Access 10^8 Voice Bandwidth Required Bits/sec (bps) 10^9 HDTV Video 10 Gig Ethernet 10^10 Gigabit Ethernet IEEE 1394 / Firewire LASER / Fast Ethernet 10 Base. T/CAT 5 Ethernet Microwave G 3 / Wireless LAN DSL/ Cable G 2 Wireless G 1 Wireless

High Performance Grid Computing Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) High Performance Grid Computing Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

What’s up? • The United States initially was the world leader in broadband deployment. What’s up? • The United States initially was the world leader in broadband deployment. • Now it has plunged to 19 th place. • While the United States is still first in absolute number of broadband lines, its lead will soon be overtaken by China. Source: http: //www. websiteoptimization. com/bw/0601, January 2006 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

How Important is Broadband? • The Brookings Institution estimated that America’s broadband decline could How Important is Broadband? • The Brookings Institution estimated that America’s broadband decline could lead to a potential loss of $1 trillion in economic productivity over the next decade, as well as more than 1. 2 million jobs that could be created by better broadband. Source: The Brookings Institute 2004 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Europe is getting it • City of Amsterdam announced a project to deploy FTTU Europe is getting it • City of Amsterdam announced a project to deploy FTTU throughout the city. http: //www. lightreading. com/document. asp? doc_id=86384 • Paris, France, announced the goal of deploying FTTU throughout “all of Paris. ” http: //www. lightreading. com/document. asp? doc_id=86547 • The City of Vienna, Austria, announced plans for a citywide FTTU network that will provide residents 1 Gbps of symmetrical broadband capacity. http: //www. heise. de/english/newsticker/news/68912 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

How Important is Computing? Walmart Perspective • If you can understand your data, you How Important is Computing? Walmart Perspective • If you can understand your data, you can do predictive analysis. • It’s an advantage if suppliers can link into Walmart’s systems and perform their own analyses using Walmarts’s complex tables - CTO Walmart (September 2006) Source: HPC Wire, September 15 th , 2006 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

How Important is Computing? Pratt & Whitney Perspective • Building models on the computer How Important is Computing? Pratt & Whitney Perspective • Building models on the computer is faster and lowercost, and you can look at any level of detail. • Digital models are the basis for innovation. • Suppliers also do modeling and simulation to speed development and reduce costs. • We take a lot of time determining whether suppliers can use these tools. - Chief engineer for systems analysis & aerodynamics, Pratt & Whitney (September 2006) Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Source: HPC Wire, September 15 th , 2006

Competitiveness Transformation Challenge Never Ever NICE: Filling the Expertise Gap Number of Users Number Competitiveness Transformation Challenge Never Ever NICE: Filling the Expertise Gap Number of Users Number of Applications Users Government Laboratories & University HPC Centers NICE: Moving Users Forward Entry Level HPC Users National Productivity Opportunity Experienced Industry Users 1, 000 Nodes Mid-Range Users 0 12 4 64 Experienced HPC “Heroes” World Class Computin g 10, 000+ Adapted from OSC Graphics Council and USC ISI Proprietary Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Dynamic Systems Common modes of behavior in dynamic systems Source: System Dynamics, John Sterman, Dynamic Systems Common modes of behavior in dynamic systems Source: System Dynamics, John Sterman, 2000 Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Exponential Growth • How thick do you think a paper folded in-half 42 times Exponential Growth • How thick do you think a paper folded in-half 42 times would be? • How thick would it be after 100 folds? Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Exponential Growth The Answers • 42 folds = 440, 000 Km (the distance from Exponential Growth The Answers • 42 folds = 440, 000 Km (the distance from the earth to the moon. ) • 100 folds = 850 trillion times the distance from the earth to the sun! Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

The Beer Game Steady state at 4 cases per week. Western Research Application Center The Beer Game Steady state at 4 cases per week. Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Connectivity Western Research Application Center (WESRAC) Connectivity Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

The Beer Game - Not Sharing The system after only a single change from The Beer Game - Not Sharing The system after only a single change from 4 to 8 case. Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

The Beer Game - Sharing Knowledge sharing, reduces the damage of a simple change The Beer Game - Sharing Knowledge sharing, reduces the damage of a simple change in the system. Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Findings • Disruptions move up and down the supply chain. Creates a state of Findings • Disruptions move up and down the supply chain. Creates a state of co-dependency. • Knowledge sharing between members of the supply chain tend to suppress the damage created by unwanted oscillations. • Grid computing can create a B 2 B trust environment that creates super supply chains. Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Contact Information For more information, please write: http: //wesrac. usc. edu Western Research Application Contact Information For more information, please write: http: //wesrac. usc. edu Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)