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CLIMATE CHANGE & TOURISM IN THE CARIBBEAN RESPONSIBLE, SUSTAINABLE TOURISM IN LATIN AMERICA & CLIMATE CHANGE & TOURISM IN THE CARIBBEAN RESPONSIBLE, SUSTAINABLE TOURISM IN LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CARIBBEAN TOURISM SECTOR Ulric O’D Trotz Ph. D 15 th April 2008 1

Dependencies of Tourism in the Caribbean • Equitable climate • Tourism plant- – Hotels Dependencies of Tourism in the Caribbean • Equitable climate • Tourism plant- – Hotels and other facilities – Infrastructure- airports, cruise ship berths, roads, coastal protection structures etc. – Natural amenities – beach, reefs, wetlands – Access to clean and adequate supply of water – Access to ready supply of energy – Financial services especially insurance – Healthy environment free from diseases – Adequate supplies of food 15 th April 2008 2

What are the projections of future Climate? n Unequivocal evidence that the earth’s temperature What are the projections of future Climate? n Unequivocal evidence that the earth’s temperature is rising and attributable to anthropogenic activities – Green House Gases n Projected trends through 2100 q rise in global temperatures of between 2 – 4. 5 o. C q Sea level rise of between 11 -77 cm q Changed weather patterns q More intense extremes –drought , floods q More intense hurricanes 15 th April 2008 3

Climate Change Trends in the Caribbean • Past 3 decades trend of increasing mean Climate Change Trends in the Caribbean • Past 3 decades trend of increasing mean temperature • Significant >> in minimum temp. (1. 4 deg. since 1960) • No. of warm days in region >>, no. of cold nights <<. • Frequency of droughts >> since 1960 (Cuba) • Frequency of occurrence of extreme events changing- Flooding & hurricane passage > in 1990’s 15 th April 2008 4

Temperature Trends in the Caribbean 0. 8 1. 5 BARBADOS 0. 6 0. 5 Temperature Trends in the Caribbean 0. 8 1. 5 BARBADOS 0. 6 0. 5 0. 2 -1. 5 -0. 8 Saint Lucia SAINT LUCIA 1. 0 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 -0. 4 -1. 5 -2. 0 -0. 6 Dominica DOMINICA -2. 5 -0. 8 1973 Period to 2000 Period 1973 to 2000 Variations of land surface temperature for the Caribbean 5 2004 2001 1998 1995 1992 1989 -1. 0 1979 0. 0 1976 -0. 5 1973 0. 2 1980 0. 4 1977 0. 5 0. 6 1974 1. 0 15 th April 2008 1999 -1. 0 -0. 6 -0. 2 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1975 1986 1978 1972 1969 1966 1983 -0. 4 -0. 5 1963 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 -0. 2 1960 0. 8 • Temperature records have shown an increase in the last century, with the 1990 s being the warmest decade since the beginning of the 20 th century. TRINIDAD 1. 0 0. 4 1970 • Temperatures in the Caribbean region are changing in a manner consistent with the observed variations at global and northern hemisphere levels.

IMPACT OF WARMER SEA TEMPERATURE More frequent episodes of Coral Bleaching since the 1980 IMPACT OF WARMER SEA TEMPERATURE More frequent episodes of Coral Bleaching since the 1980 s 15 th April 2008 6

Another Impact of Warmer Sea Temperature Hurricanes developing at lower latitudes and becoming more Another Impact of Warmer Sea Temperature Hurricanes developing at lower latitudes and becoming more intense in a shorter period of time Formed 2 Sept. 2004 Ivan developed near 8 o. N Formed 15 Oct. 2004 Wilma went from Depression to Cat 5 hurricane in less than 24 hrs. Cozumel Grenada 13 Aug. 2007 Cat 5 Hurricane Dean approaching the Yucatan Peninsula 15 th April 2008 Aug. 31 2007 Cat 5 Hurricane Felix approaching Central America 7

The Impact of more intense hurricanes & Sea Level Rise 1997 2020 Wave Action The Impact of more intense hurricanes & Sea Level Rise 1997 2020 Wave Action Storm Surge MSL 1997 Storm Surge MSL 2020 MSL 1997 : Response Strategies • Retreat • Accommodation • Protection Ø Higher and stronger storm surge Ø More severe damage to mangrove & corals Ø Increase in coastal damage and beach erosion 15 th April 2008 8

Increase incidences of unusually heavy rainfall One of many flood events in Georgetown, Guyana Increase incidences of unusually heavy rainfall One of many flood events in Georgetown, Guyana (2005, 2006 and 2007) 15 th April 2008 August 31, 2007 Belize City, Belize Tropical wave dumped over 11 inches of rain in less than 9 hours 9

INSURED LOSSES Storm Class Year Estimated 1990 Insured Losses (000’s) Estimated 1990 Insured Losses INSURED LOSSES Storm Class Year Estimated 1990 Insured Losses (000’s) Estimated 1990 Insured Losses if Maximum Wind Speed Increases by 5% 10% 15% Hugo 4 1989 $3, 658, 887 $4, 902, 70 5 34% $6, 514, 17 $8, 542, 42 2 8 78% 133% Alicia 3 1983 $2, 435, 589 $3, 382, 77 5 39% $4, 312, 88 $5, 685, 85 4 3 77% 133% Camille 5 1969 $3, 086, 201 $4, 120, 73 3 34% $5, 438, 33 $7, 095, 00 2 8 76% 130% Source: Clark, 1997. 15 th April 2008 10

Habitat becomes less favourable Dolphin fish +1°C 15 th April 2008 11 Habitat becomes less favourable Dolphin fish +1°C 15 th April 2008 11

Habitat becomes less favourable Green parrot fish +1°C 15 th April 2008 12 Habitat becomes less favourable Green parrot fish +1°C 15 th April 2008 12

Impact OF 2 o. C rise on Agriculture Preliminary studies on the impact on Impact OF 2 o. C rise on Agriculture Preliminary studies on the impact on the staples corn, beans and rice for 2 o. C warmer and +/- 20% change in precipitation 15 th April 2008 13

Likely Consequences of a Warmer Climate in the Caribbean • Will pose significant, and Likely Consequences of a Warmer Climate in the Caribbean • Will pose significant, and in some cases insurmountable challenges to the region’s Economic and Social Vulnerability • Expected Areas of Negative Impact – Agriculture/Fisheries • Food security threat – Tourism • Economic sustainability – Health • Increase in vector borne diseases and other heat related diseases – Water – Human Settlements 15 th April 2008 14

TOURISM AS A CONTRIBUTING CAUSE • GHG emissions from the sector derived from: • TOURISM AS A CONTRIBUTING CAUSE • GHG emissions from the sector derived from: • Transport- Road, Sea, Aviation • Activity specific tourism e. g. sport • Buildings and other tourism amenities – use of energy • Increased stress on natural ecosystems – coastal ecosystems, natural resource base for ecotourism 15 th April 2008 15

Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in Davos(OCT. 2007) Conference agreed inter Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in Davos(OCT. 2007) Conference agreed inter alia that : • Climate is a key resource for tourism and the sector is highly sensitive to impacts of climate change and global warming, many elements of which are already being felt. It is estimated to contribute some 5% of global CO 2 emissions, • The tourism sector must rapidly respond to climate change, within the evolving UN framework and progressively reduce its GHG contribution if it is to grow in a sustainable manner: this will require action to: 15 th April 2008 16

DAVOS MEETING • Mitigate its GHG emissions, derived especially from transport and accommodation activities. DAVOS MEETING • Mitigate its GHG emissions, derived especially from transport and accommodation activities. • Adapt tourism businesses and destinations to changing climate conditions • Apply existing and new technology to improve energy efficiency. • Secure financial resources to help poor regions and countries 15 th April 2008 17

WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL TOURISM SECTOR • Sustainable tourism thrust of regional industry WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL TOURISM SECTOR • Sustainable tourism thrust of regional industry in consonance with actions to mitigate climate change impacts • Improve environmental performance of industry through benchmarking &eco-labeling e. g. through Green Globe 21 – includes GHG emissions as one of nine key indicators. • Explore potential of tourists to participate in carbon offsetting schemes 15 th April 2008 18

DECREASING TOURISM EMISSIONS FOOTPRINT • • • Encourage green tourism Energy efficient building designs DECREASING TOURISM EMISSIONS FOOTPRINT • • • Encourage green tourism Energy efficient building designs Water conservation – low flush toilets etc. Energy efficiency management practices Renewable energy use Encourage use of energy efficient vehicles, cycling & activities that use less energy. 15 th April 2008 19

WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL TOURISM SECTOR • More discriminatory approach to tourism destinations WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL TOURISM SECTOR • More discriminatory approach to tourism destinations – “green tourism”- win-win situations for the Caribbean. • Support the transition of the Caribbean region to become the world’s first “Carbon Neutral” tourism destination, thereby affording the region a unique labeling and branding platform that will support growth within the global eco-sensitive client 15 th April 2008 20 market.

WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL TOURISM SECTOR • Partnership with government to facilitate development WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL TOURISM SECTOR • Partnership with government to facilitate development of an enabling policy environment for sustainable tourism. • Regional adaptation Fund – Carbon levy? ? • Adaptation lending window at financial institutions; – Moratorium on repayments. – Expeditious disbursement – Concessionary interest rates 15 th April 2008 21

WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL TOURISM SECTOR • Partnership with regional insurance companies, climate WAY FORWARD FOR THE REGIONAL TOURISM SECTOR • Partnership with regional insurance companies, climate science community to better define future climate risks and provide: • a rational basis for the design of insurance instruments e. g weather derivatives, catastrophe bonds, parametric insurance. • the basis for incentives from financial/government/insurance sectors for “smart development in the sector” 15 th April 2008 22

THANK YOU 15 th April 2008 23 THANK YOU 15 th April 2008 23