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CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon Scale in Integrated Assessment Hadi Dowlatabadi Center for Integrated CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon Scale in Integrated Assessment Hadi Dowlatabadi Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Carnegie Mellon University Fellow, Resources for the Future National Science Foundation, USDOE, EPRI, NOAA, USEPA, Exxon. Mobil, API

Human Dimensions & IA I believe any successful Integrated Assessment’s essential characteristics are shaped Human Dimensions & IA I believe any successful Integrated Assessment’s essential characteristics are shaped by its human dimensions. • When humans are involved we have to worry about the implications of cognitive processes for representation of other (natural) processes in the IA. • When humans are involved we have to worry about the many scales of social interactions and the processes governing their dynamics. • When human are involved we have to worry about history and experience as the initial condition and as a limit to imagination. 2 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Outline of this talk Cognitive issues & scale of physical processes in IA Preferences, Outline of this talk Cognitive issues & scale of physical processes in IA Preferences, social interactions & cross scale processes 3 History, path dependence and cross scale processes Challenges of scale beyond our experience & comprehension CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Outline of this talk Cognitive issues & scale of physical processes in IA Preferences, Outline of this talk Cognitive issues & scale of physical processes in IA Preferences, social interactions & cross scale processes 4 History, path dependence and cross scale processes Challenges of scale beyond our experience & comprehension CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Cognition & scale • A natural scientists may try to focus their analysis on Cognition & scale • A natural scientists may try to focus their analysis on the scales at which natural systems operate. • A social scientist may try to focus their analysis on scale the at which communities are organized. • In my mind the scales that matter are those at which human cognitive processes are most sensitive. We are most sensitive to episodic events. Gradual change, even fundamental processes like aging, often catch us unawares. 5 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Consider the coastal impacts of climate change! • Will we adapt to sea level Consider the coastal impacts of climate change! • Will we adapt to sea level rise directly? • It is unrealistic to expect sensitivity to SLR: when tide ranges are: and storm surges are: @≈ 5 mm/year ≈ 500 mm/day ≈ 5000 mm/hour ² Sea level rise will be slower than the rate of evolution of most communities. ² Detection of slow secular changes is difficult. Institutions can help provide the information needed to address this issue. ² More often though, the community’s evolution is shaped by responses to extreme events. Yet assessments are typically concerned with erosion & enundation. 6 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Consider global warming: Average annual temperature in Pittsburgh 1871 -1994 TSP & SO 2 Consider global warming: Average annual temperature in Pittsburgh 1871 -1994 TSP & SO 2 OPEC/CAA 2°C 7 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Rx for IA • Scale of analysis should be capable of representing extreme events, Rx for IA • Scale of analysis should be capable of representing extreme events, their frequency and intensity. • Current GCMs and SLR analyses are not constructed to deal with this challenge. I suggest building models that simulate the spatial and temporal disequilibrium inherent in the dynamics of natural systems. 8 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Outline of this talk Cognitive issues & scale of physical processes in IA Preferences, Outline of this talk Cognitive issues & scale of physical processes in IA Preferences, social interactions & cross scale processes 9 History, path dependence and cross scale processes Challenges of scale beyond our experience & comprehension CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Social organization & scale • Scale is too often defined in strictly geographic terms. Social organization & scale • Scale is too often defined in strictly geographic terms. • Humans organize themselves along communities that are “local” in some abstract sense of shared interests, experiences or goals, that have little relationship to a geographic scale. • Nevertheless, geography still plays a strong role in how some social systems work. 10 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Cross scale process surprises: Meat consumption in Australia (kg/cap/yr. )! 11 CIS oƒ HDGC Cross scale process surprises: Meat consumption in Australia (kg/cap/yr. )! 11 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

A model of what happened Traditional importers of beef suffer recession OPEC price hike A model of what happened Traditional importers of beef suffer recession OPEC price hike Beef exports fall Surplus in beef production Marginal importers of lamb have a windfall Lamb exports rise Shortfall in lamb production As diets change pork & poultry take market share 12 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Rx for IA • Analyses should have sufficient resolution to represent diversity of tastes Rx for IA • Analyses should have sufficient resolution to represent diversity of tastes among different groups. • Analyses should be able to represent how constraints at one scale are addressed at another scale. • Analyses should admit the incapacity to represent departures from historic paths. 13 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Outline of this talk Cognitive issues & scale of physical processes in IA Preferences, Outline of this talk Cognitive issues & scale of physical processes in IA Preferences, social interactions & cross scale processes 14 History, path dependence and cross scale processes Challenges of scale beyond our experience & comprehension CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

History, path dependence & scale • The unit of analysis is too often limited History, path dependence & scale • The unit of analysis is too often limited to the immediate agent. • But agents do not work in a vacuum. They act within a framework defined by other agents (at other scales to this agent, but at their own local scale to them). • History plays a strong role in how many (if not all) of these interactions play out. 15 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Why did distributed cogeneration take off in the Netherlands and not the UK? 16 Why did distributed cogeneration take off in the Netherlands and not the UK? 16 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

A focus on investor uncertainties pointed up fuel price volatility 17 CIS oƒ HDGC A focus on investor uncertainties pointed up fuel price volatility 17 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

A focus on national programs pointed up subsidies • Netherlands (1986 -1998) » 167 A focus on national programs pointed up subsidies • Netherlands (1986 -1998) » 167 M capital subsidy, » + 137 M fuel subsidy, » + 3. 9 M energy tax exemption, » + 17. 7 M to establish Cogen » Information Center. Also the utilities were allowed to raise up to 525 M in electricity and gas levy to pay for their CO 2 reduction plans » 1500 MWe » i. e. 220$/k. We (570$/k. We if we include the levy) 18 • UK (1986 -1998) » ≈ 10 M capital subsidy » +0 » + 9. 5 M to establish Cogen Information Center. » 110 MWe » i. e. 180$/k. We CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

A focus on engineering economics pointed up economies of scale & NPV 19 CIS A focus on engineering economics pointed up economies of scale & NPV 19 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Cost-effectiveness in more detail 20 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon Cost-effectiveness in more detail 20 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Average size of installation (k. W) A focus on installation scales points up the Average size of installation (k. W) A focus on installation scales points up the role of supply firms 21 UK threshold Netherlands threshold CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

A focus on installations points up the role of end-users 22 CIS oƒ HDGC A focus on installations points up the role of end-users 22 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

More careful analysis still points up the role of the Utilities 23 CIS oƒ More careful analysis still points up the role of the Utilities 23 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

The cross-scale interactions affect how the units are sized and operated! • The Netherlands The cross-scale interactions affect how the units are sized and operated! • The Netherlands » Size the unit to meet all but extreme heat loads. » Sell excess electricity to the grid. » Often do not need a backup boiler. » Rarely need to buy power 24 • The UK » Size the unit to meet base heat requirements. » + no excess electricity is for off-site sale. » Always need to invest in peaking boiler. » Always need to purchase some power. CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Cross-scale interactions in the Dutch co-generation market Distribution companies promote cogen Consumers enabled to Cross-scale interactions in the Dutch co-generation market Distribution companies promote cogen Consumers enabled to sell power adopt a different sizing & operation strategy More installations lowers maintenance costs 25 Lower maintenance costs improves economics CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Rx for IA • Analyses should differentiate between the rhetoric of informed decision-making and Rx for IA • Analyses should differentiate between the rhetoric of informed decision-making and the reality of boundedly rational decision-making. • Analyses should recognize the importance of history in shaping agent behaviour. 26 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Outline of this talk Cognitive issues & scale of physical processes in IA Preferences, Outline of this talk Cognitive issues & scale of physical processes in IA Preferences, social interactions & cross scale processes 27 History, path dependence and cross scale processes Challenges of scale beyond our experience & comprehension CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Individual Carbon Emissions (kg/yr) The pixels that make up the picture 28 CIS oƒ Individual Carbon Emissions (kg/yr) The pixels that make up the picture 28 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

The agents don’t know their role! • They had no clue what their emissions The agents don’t know their role! • They had no clue what their emissions levels were but felt they were below the US average. • No user knew which aspect of their lifestyle led to most CO 2 emissions. • After their interaction with ICEE: » User 1: thought he was doing so well he did not need to consider any further energy efficiencies. » User 2: was distraught at learning that she was a gross emitter of CO 2. She started crying when none of the strategies she tried to lower the emissions made much difference to her emissions. » User 3: felt to do more there would have to be technological breakthroughs. 29 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

If it is not called policy does it count? Crude oil prices January 1999 If it is not called policy does it count? Crude oil prices January 1999 to January 2000 Equivalent to a carbon tax of ~ $115/t. C 30 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Global and Local in tension • If carbon prices are raised globally: » Richer Global and Local in tension • If carbon prices are raised globally: » Richer countries will be able to buy energy at the higher price. » Poorer countries may revert to more traditional biomass burning. • If carbon controls are limited to Annex 1: » It will slow down the economies of richer nations, but it is most likely that commodity exporters in lower income countries who suffer most! 31 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

How do we act when the scale of change is unprecedented? • Climate stabilization How do we act when the scale of change is unprecedented? • Climate stabilization requires global emissions of CO 2 to be no higher than ~30% of today’s level. • Now imagine the world in 2100: » Hopefully with no more than twice as many people. » Hopefully with no less than twice as well off as today. • How can climate stabilization be achieved? » Carbon intensity of the economy needs to fall by 3%p. a. or more and maintained for a century. » The is no historic precedent. » The OPEC oil crisis is an inappropriate analogue. 32 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

How can we conduct assessment when the tools are inadequate? ge n l a How can we conduct assessment when the tools are inadequate? ge n l a nt e ha C m on ir v n le a b glo 33 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Blinkered by climate change concerns? • Is it climate change? in Newly Independent States Blinkered by climate change concerns? • Is it climate change? in Newly Independent States Malaria Incidence • Is 40, 000 it soldiers returning from war in Afghanistan? • Is it internal turmoil & a displaced populations? 30, 000 • Is it a breakdown of public health services? • Is 20, 000 change in agricultural practices? it 10, 000 0 1990 34 1992 1994 1996 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Dx for IA • We often conduct analyses at scales obscuring heterogeneity of actors Dx for IA • We often conduct analyses at scales obscuring heterogeneity of actors and environmental conditions. • We often treat discounting (or not) with insufficient understanding of its cognitive and moral foundations. • We often are too engrossed in our immediate interests to attribute problems to the right causes. • We often are too blinkered by our past to foresee solutions that may emerge in the future. 35 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Summary • We have discussed how: » social aspects of IA lead to specific Summary • We have discussed how: » social aspects of IA lead to specific needs in understanding and representation of natural systems (storms not sea level rise). » various multi-scale processes interact to shape the world (coastal dwellers, diet, diffusion of technology, …) » history is a conditioning factor in agent behaviour. • We have also discussed significant scale related challenges ahead in IA and in policy implementation. • I did not show you how some of these issues are handled in ICAM through simulation of extreme events and interactions between software agents (sensitive to different indicators & representing competing interests). 36 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

Good reading! • Schelling (1976) -- Micro-motives, Macro-behavior • Clark (1985, 6) -- natural Good reading! • Schelling (1976) -- Micro-motives, Macro-behavior • Clark (1985, 6) -- natural and social processes have specific characteristic scales. • Root & Schneider (1995, 6) -- strategic cyclical scaling. • Morgan et al. (1999) -- inadequacy of policy tools for global change problems. • Willbanks and Kates (1999) -- mismatch of global structure represented in analyses and local agency. • … 37 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon

"Duct tape is like The Force: It has a light side, and a dark side, and it holds the universe together. "

Non-commercial fuel (% of energy use) 39 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon Non-commercial fuel (% of energy use) 39 CIS oƒ HDGC Carnegie Mellon