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Central Bank of Ireland/Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland: Survey of Property Professionals 2013 Q 3 Results: Circulated December 2013
PLEASE NOTE: THE RESULTS/FINDINGS OF THE SURVEY OF PROPERTY PROFESSIONALS 2013 Q 3 ARE PRESENTED WITHIN. THE PURPOSE OF THIS PRESENTATION IS TO PROVIDE INFORMATION TO THOSE WHO PARTICPATED IN THE SURVEY, CENTRAL BANK OF IRELAND STAFF & THE SCSI. WE ASK THAT THIS DOCUMENT NOT BE PUBLICLY QUOTED OR CIRCULATED FURTHER.
• House price expectations 2013 Q 3 SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS – – Latest survey shows c. 80% of respondents anticipating higher national house prices in 12 months, while c. 95% believe prices will increase over 3 years – noticeable difference since 2012 Q 3. – Expectations of house price growth in Dublin remain strong and there appears to be a belief that the extent of house price increases in the Capital will be greater than at the national level in the coming year / 3 years. – • Significant rise in the percentage of respondents expecting higher house prices (across all intervals), compared to the same time last year. Regional outlook also more optimistic: across all regions <20% believe price will be lower in a year & no-one who responded believes prices in their region will be lower in 3 years time. Market activity – – • A higher proportion of respondents say they were busier this quarter than last, in terms of sales completions (59%), sales agreed (69%) and sales enquiries (67%) – higher figures than in our last survey (2013 Q 2). However, the number of respondents stating they are busier in terms of sales instructions (51%) is lower than last quarter – indicative of tight supply / sellers holding off? FTBs and Movers are the dominant category in terms of buyer activity – mortgage finance more likely to be used by FTBs, whereas movers appear to have readier access to cash. Market issues – Respondents are reporting a sense of confidence returning to the market due to more positive economic news recently. There’s also a belief that the market may have bottomed out across much of the country. However, there is some concern about the low supply of units, particularly in Dublin. – Property transactions continue to fall through at a late stage in the sales process, primarily as a result of the withdrawal of / delaying of access to finance or legal obstacles. Problems encountered with documentation such as title deeds, surveyors or engineers reports or with the management company are also commonly reported.
SURVEY 2013 Q 3 SELECTED RESULTS (PRICE EXPECTATIONS)
SURVEY 2013 Q 3: CURRENT & +1 QUARTER NATIONAL PRICE EXPECTATIONS
SURVEY 2013 Q 3 vs. SURVEY 2012 Q 3: +1 YEAR & +3 YEAR PRICE EXPECTATIONS
REASONS UNDERLYING PRICE EXPECTATIONS – positive: There’s a sense that confidence is slowly returning to the market - economic news more positive lately/jobs created/on track to exit the official assistance programme. Respondents report that buyers believe there’s value to be had in the market at present and that prices may have bottomed out across much of the country. Some also commented on the increased levels of investor activity that they are witnessing and they believe this will grow throughout next year. Finally, others point to a substantial pent-up demand in the market due to the low level of buyer activity in recent years – which they expect to come on stream. – While not a development associated with a well functioning market – a number of respondents cite the lack of supply, especially in Dublin, as a reason why prices will rise over the next year/3 years – and point to this as a major concern. – negative: On the other hand, the diminishing numbers in the Survey who believe prices will fall over the medium term – continue to point to the lack of access to mortgage finance as a problem. A few respondents were also of the opinion that some of the economic issues faced by the country over the last few years haven’t yet been fully resolved – the mortgage arrears problem/and the potential for an increase in foreclosures/repossessions being an example.
+1 YEAR (LHS) & +3 YEARS (RHS) PRICE EXPECTATIONS (SURVEY 2013 Q 2): NATIONAL VS. DUBLIN
+1 YEAR (LHS) & +3 YEARS (RHS) PRICE EXPECTATIONS (SURVEY 2013 Q 3): REGIONAL
SURVEY 2013 Q 3 SELECTED RESULTS (MARKET ACTIVITY)
SURVEY 2013 Q 3: MARKET ACTIVITY
SURVEY 2013 Q 3: MARKET ISSUES SALES PRICES & PURCHASE METHOD
SURVEY 2013 Q 3: MARKET ISSUES FAILED TRANSACTIONS & INFLUENCES ON MARKET DEMAND
IF YOU HAVE ANY COMMENTS/QUERIES ON THESE RESULTS, OR IF YOU ARE NOT INVOLVED IN THE SURVEY AT PRESENT AND YOU WOULD LIKE TO BE IN THE FUTURE PLEASE CONTACT: GERARD KENNEDY [email protected] ie