- Количество слайдов: 28
Campaigns Today n Campaign tasks performed by • Media consultants-create ads (many targeting voters’ fears!), buy airtime • Direct mail firms • Polling firms-survey voters • Political technology firms-web site design, online advertising Copyright © 2013 Cengage
O/Reuters/Landov President Obama in 2011 used an e-mail and a video to tell his followers that he was going to run for reelection in 2012. Digital communication has become more important for both parties. Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Figure 9. 4: Cost of Winning a Congressional Election, 2002– 2010 Source: Campaign Finance Institute, updated data from Vital Statistics on Congress, ed. Michael J. Malbin, Norman J. Ornstein, and Thomas E. Mann (Washington, D. C. : Brookings Institution Press, 2008). Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Figure 10. 1 Presidential Campaigns, Spending on Media, 2008 Source: Federal Election Commission, summary reports, May 2009. Figures rounded. Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Campaigns Today n Here And Abroad • In the U. S. , elections have two crucial phases: getting nominated and getting elected. They both require an individual effort on the part of the candidate. • In most of Europe, the political party decides who will be allowed to run and puts the candidate’s name on the ballot. Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Presidential Versus Congressional Campaigns Presidential Race n Congressional Race n Less Competitive More Competitive • Winner usually gets less than 55% of the vote n n n Larger Voter Turnout Must Rely On The Mass Media To Reach Voters Incumbent Presidents Are Often Held Responsible For Whatever Has Gone Wrong n Since 1962 90% of House incumbents have won re-election. • Winner usually gets over 60 % of the vote Smaller Voter Turnout n Closer Contact With The District’s Voters n Even Incumbent Congressmen Can “Run Against Washington” Copyright © 2013 Cengage n
Presidential Campaigns Running for President • Getting “Mentioned” • Money • Organization • Strategy and Themes Copyright © 2013 Cengage g 36/ZUMA Press/Newscom Lisa Murkowski, a write-in candidate, won a Senate seat in Alaska, the first person to do this in any state since 1954. She defeated the Republican candidate.
Getting Elected To Congress n n n The Problems Of Malapportionment (unequal districts in population: one person, one vote? ) and Gerrymandering (districts drawn to favor one party) (# House Reps capped at 435 in 1911) Winning The Primaries and/or Caucuses Staying In Office Copyright © 2013 Cengage
FRONT LOADING When a state holds its primary early to capitalize on media attention.
Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census. Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Two Kinds Of Campaign Issues § Position Issues • The rival candidates have opposing views and the issue divides the voters. § Valence Issues • The voters are not divided on an important issue (crime, jobs, etc. ) and examine whether a candidate fully supports their view. (Which party will deliver? ) Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Politically Speaking: Clothespin Vote The vote cast by a person who does not like either candidate and so votes for the less objectionable of the two, putting a clothespin over his or her nose to keep out the unpleasant stench. Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Television and Debates n Television • Paid Advertisements/Commercials • Making the Nightly Newscasts-”free time”? n Debates • What effects do they have on elections? • What risks are involved in televised debates? Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Money n The Sources of Campaign Money ($$ = Influence) • Presidential candidates get $ from private donors & part from the federal government. (matching funds for individual donations $250 or less) • Congressional candidates get all $ from private citizens & interest groups. • Hydraulic Theory: Water (and $$) find their way around ANY obstacle. Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Copyright © 2013 Cengage
FEDERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN ACT OF 1974 - FOLLOWED WATERGATE • Created Federal Election Commission: formed basis of current campaign finance • Limited spending of hard $$ (to candidate: Individuals $1000, PACs $5000) & required disclosure of donations over $200 • Unlimited soft $$ (to parties) – a problem “loophole” moving forward
POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES • Created by law in 1974 to allow limited issue- related donations to campaigns from corporations, labor unions etc. & report donations to FEC.
Figure 10. 2 Growth of PACs 1979– 2010 Source: Federal Election Commission. Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Source: Center for Responsive Politics, based on FEC data. Copyright © 2013 Cengage
BUCKLEY V. VALEO (1976) 1. Supreme Court upheld FECA limits on individual contributions to campaigns. 2. BUT Supreme Court struck down the provision that limited the amount an individual could spend on his or her own campaign. Set the precedent for future cases that said “money = speech”.
BIPARTISAN CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM ACT (MCCAIN FEINGOLD - 2002) Eliminates unlimited soft $$ loophole (“Isn’t giving to parties same as giving to candidate? ”) Set limits of $2000 for individual contributions and $5000 for PACs, indexed for inflation. Banned independent ads by corporations, labor unions etc. that mention candidates & their positions for 30 days before primaries and 60 days before a general election.
INDEPENDENT ORGANIZATIONS – THE ROUTE AROUND MCCAINFEINGOLD (BIPARTISAN CAMPAIGN REFORM ACT)? 527 s are independent organizations that run ads for political activities that are not directly tied to a political party or a candidate (already in the tax code: tax exempt, no limit on donations, must disclose donors) 501(c) groups are commonly called "social welfare" organizations that may engage in political activities, as long as these activities do not become their primary purpose. .
CITIZENS UNITED V. FEC (2010) ANOTHER ROUTE AROUND MCCAIN-FEINGOLD (BIPARTISAN CAMPAIGN REFORM ACT)? Was “Hillary the Movie” a political ad or public discourse like the Federalist Papers? 527 s and 501(c) groups are considered to be persons under the law, with free speech rights. The 30 and 60 day limits on ads were ruled to be unconstitutional violations of the First Amendment. Overturned part of BCRA that had prohibited individual + corporate/union funding of campaign ads.
IMPACT OF CITIZEN’S UNITED: INCREASE IN $$ GOING TO 527 S: AKA SUPERPACS (BENEFITED CLINTON “BIGLY”!) Super PACS may engage in unlimited spending independent of candidate and parties (no coordination) They can raise funds from corporations, unions, and other groups/individuals without limits.
WHAT DECIDES THE ELECTION? Rational Choice Voting-voting for your best interests Retrospective Voting-voting based on the recent past (especially the economy) Prospective Voting-voting based on predictions about the future Party-line Voting-voting for all of the candidates for one party
Figure 10. 3 The Economy and Vote for President, 1948– 2008 As per capita income goes up (as you move to the right on the horizontal axis), the incumbent political party tends to win a bigger share of the vote. Copyright © 2013 Cengage
Union members were once heavily Democratic, but since Ronald Reagan began winning white union votes in 1980, these votes have been up for grabs. AP Images At a public meeting, Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher challenged Barack Obama on his tax plan and quickly became known as “Joe the Plumber. ” Copyright © 2013 Cengage Al Goldis/ AP Photo
Figure 10. 4 Partisan Division of the Presidential Vote, 1856– 2008 Sources: Information for 1856– 1988, updated from Historical Data Archive, Inter-University Consortium for Political Research, as reported in William H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale, Political Behavior of the American Electorate, 3 rd ed. , 32. For 1992: World Almanac and Book of Facts 1994, 73. Copyright © 2013 Cengage