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AUIDF Alan Olsen www. spre. com. au 21 March 2013 AUIDF Alan Olsen www. spre. com. au 21 March 2013

Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Source countries • A key purpose in measuring country Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Source countries • A key purpose in measuring country costs is to determine where to invest in future

Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Many international students are recruited from Australia • In Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Many international students are recruited from Australia • In 23 universities in 2011, 32% of commencing international students recruited from Australia as a source country, 24% of spending on Australia as a source country

Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Australia has to be a source country, and for Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Australia has to be a source country, and for Australia to be a source country, the definition of a source country has to be the country from which the international student applied to study at your university, the application submission location, not country of citizenship or permanent home residence

Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • To prescribe DIISRTE data for country costs ignores that Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • To prescribe DIISRTE data for country costs ignores that there is no DIISRTE data on country costs or applications or offers • Universities will have needed to maintain their own records on country costs, questionnaire asks for that data without a DIISRTE prescription

Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Source country simplification • Source Country is the application Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Source country simplification • Source Country is the application submission location, the country from which the student applied to study at your university, regardless

Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Number of channels • Directors decided to exclude the Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Number of channels • Directors decided to exclude the two IDP channels • Reviewing that decision

Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Scholarships • One of the most important areas of Benchmarking 2012 in 2013 • Scholarships • One of the most important areas of benchmarking • In 2011, 7. 7% of revenue on scholarships, cf 3. 6% on commissions

Mobility • There was outbound mobility before Asian century • Before reverse Colombo Plan Mobility • There was outbound mobility before Asian century • Before reverse Colombo Plan • And a lot of outbound mobility was to Asia, including China

Mobility 2011 in 2012 • 12. 3% of completing Australian undergraduates (one in eight), Mobility 2011 in 2012 • 12. 3% of completing Australian undergraduates (one in eight), cf 9. 1% of US undergraduates, 13. 8% of US bachelor students • 32. 7% to Asia, cf US 12. 0% • 9. 7% to China, Australia’s second biggest destination, cf US 5. 3% to China, US fifth biggest destination

Mobility 2012 in 2013 • Chaney: data sources on the destinations of Australian students Mobility 2012 in 2013 • Chaney: data sources on the destinations of Australian students studying offshore are still in a state of early development • Continue to include detailed outbound mobility information (fields/ destinations) in paper from AIEC presentation

Mobility 2012 in 2013 • Destination countries • Add Austria • Any need to Mobility 2012 in 2013 • Destination countries • Add Austria • Any need to make the destination country list “as many destination countries as you choose”?

Mobility 2012 in 2013 • Combined or double degree up to 2010 • Combined Mobility 2012 in 2013 • Combined or double degree up to 2010 • Combined or double degree including Law (7. 8%) • Combined or double degree not including Law (5. 3%) • Commerce/Law; Commerce/Other than Law; Law/Other than Commerce; Other Double Degree

Data Collection • Two years so far, 2011 and 2012 • Incomplete • Lack Data Collection • Two years so far, 2011 and 2012 • Incomplete • Lack of completeness is a problem • Quality • Alternative approach

Data Collection HEIMS Approach • Collection of data directly from HEIMS (the Higher Education Data Collection HEIMS Approach • Collection of data directly from HEIMS (the Higher Education Information Management System) used by universities for reporting data to DIISRTE • Three times per year • This year and last year

Data Collection HEIMS Approach • One XL flat spreadsheet for this year, one for Data Collection HEIMS Approach • One XL flat spreadsheet for this year, one for last year • In each case there should be one row of data for each international student enrolled in your university • Output is a pivot table just like an AEI pivot table

Data Collection HEIMS Approach • 310 course of study type code • 358 citizen/resident Data Collection HEIMS Approach • 310 course of study type code • 358 citizen/resident indicator • 534 course of study commencement date • 477 postcode or overseas country code location of campus/delivery location • 569 type of operation of campus • 320 location code of permanent home residence

Data Collection HEIMS Approach • Next steps • Simple/technical version? Audience? • Compulsory? • Data Collection HEIMS Approach • Next steps • Simple/technical version? Audience? • Compulsory? • Working group?

Student Progress • Commencing international bachelor students passed 84. 75% of what they attempted Student Progress • Commencing international bachelor students passed 84. 75% of what they attempted in 2011, domestic 84. 35% • In 23 universities, commencing international undergraduates did better • In 11 universities, Australians did better • In three universities, no difference (less than one percentage point)

Student Progress • Increasing numbers of Australian universities are setting entry standards, including English Student Progress • Increasing numbers of Australian universities are setting entry standards, including English language entry standards, for international undergraduates that lead to successful outcomes, are monitoring academic performance and are providing English language and study skills support

Student Progress Student Progress

Student Progress Student Progress

Student Progress Student Progress

Student Progress 84. 75%/84. 35% Student Progress 84. 75%/84. 35%

Attrition 8. 92%/19. 05% Attrition 8. 92%/19. 05%

Proportion of Revenue from International Student Fees Proportion of Revenue from International Student Fees

Modeling • Demand for university places driving recovery • Green shoots in higher education Modeling • Demand for university places driving recovery • Green shoots in higher education and pathways to higher education • Two speed industry • Vocational education and training down and staying down

Green Shoots • 2012 starts, cf 2011 starts, first half, second half • Higher Green Shoots • 2012 starts, cf 2011 starts, first half, second half • Higher Ed -9. 8%, -0. 7% • ELICOS -3. 0%, +11. 8% • Schools -12. 3%, +0. 7% • Other incl Foundation -9. 5%, + 3. 9% • Aggregate excl VET -7. 7%, +5. 2%

VET • Commencements in vocational education and training stayed down • Private VET commencements VET • Commencements in vocational education and training stayed down • Private VET commencements -11. 7% first half, -13. 9% second half • TAFE commencements -12. 8% first half, -6. 1% second half

What Others Say • English Australia: 2012 divided into two distinct halves, demonstrating quite What Others Say • English Australia: 2012 divided into two distinct halves, demonstrating quite clearly a reversal of previous three year decline • Navitas: demand is continuing to improve for Australian university qualifications following two years of decline • RBA February 2013: liaison suggests education exports stabilised after having declined since 2009

Modeling • Higher education on its way from 36% of enrolments in 2009 to Modeling • Higher education on its way from 36% of enrolments in 2009 to 49% in 2020 • VET on its way from 33% of enrolments in 2009 to 16% in 2020 • Issues about appetites and capacities in universities

Modeling Revenue • 2009 (peak) $16. 977 billion • 2012 (actual) $14. 595 billion Modeling Revenue • 2009 (peak) $16. 977 billion • 2012 (actual) $14. 595 billion • 2013 (bottom) $13. 901 billion • 2014 (recovery) $14. 393 billion

Modeling Revenue Modeling Revenue

Modeling Enrolments • 2009 peak 631, 000 • 2012 actual 516, 000 • 2013 Modeling Enrolments • 2009 peak 631, 000 • 2012 actual 516, 000 • 2013 model 490, 000 • 2014 bottom 488, 000 • 2015 recovery 504, 000 • 2020 same as 2009 621, 000

 • • Modeling Higher Education Enrolments 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 • • Modeling Higher Education Enrolments 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 226, 000 peak 242, 000 equal peak, pipeline, 242, 000 actual 231, 000 bottom 223, 000 recovery 228, 000 towards old peak 239, 000 appetites/capacities 304, 000

Modeling Enrolments Modeling Enrolments

Modeling Enrolments Modeling Enrolments

Timelessness Timelessness

AUIDF Alan Olsen www. spre. com. au 21 March 2013 AUIDF Alan Olsen www. spre. com. au 21 March 2013