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Adapting to the Future: Trends and Scenarios in Accelerating Change Army Science Board - Adapting to the Future: Trends and Scenarios in Accelerating Change Army Science Board - Summer Study July 2008 Irvine, CA John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides: accelerating. org/slides © 2007 Accelerating. org

Accelerating Change A Universal Developmental Process Accelerating Change A Universal Developmental Process

Acceleration Studies: Something Curious Is Going On Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The Acceleration Studies: Something Curious Is Going On Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The Developmental Spiral An unexplained physical phenomenon. (Don’t look for this in your current Los Angeles New York Palo Alto physics or information theory texts…) © 2007 Accelerating. org

The Developmental Spiral Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles The Developmental Spiral Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Homo Habilis Age Homo Sapiens Age Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age Agricultural Age Empires Age Scientific Age Industrial Age Information Age Symbiotic Age Autonomy Age Tech Singularity 2, 000 yrs ago 100, 000 yrs 40, 000 yrs 7, 000 yrs 2, 500 yrs 380 yrs (1500 -1770) 180 yrs (1770 -1950) 70 yrs (1950 -2020) 30 yrs (2020 -2050) 10 yrs (2050 -2060) ≈ 2060 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Classic Predictable Accelerations: Moore’s Law Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New Classic Predictable Accelerations: Moore’s Law Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that computer chips (processors, memory, etc. ) double their complexity every 12 -24 months at near constant unit cost. This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by 1000 X (Ten doublings: 2, 4, 8…. 1024). Emergence! There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density). © 2007 Accelerating. org

Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Emergence Acceleration: Independent Assessments (Preliminary Data) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles Emergence Acceleration: Independent Assessments (Preliminary Data) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org Ray Kurzweil, 2006

Transistor Doublings (2 years) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Transistor Doublings (2 years) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil. AI. net © 2007 Accelerating. org

Processor Performance (1. 8 years) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New Processor Performance (1. 8 years) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil. AI. net © 2007 Accelerating. org

DRAM Miniaturization (5. 4 years) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New DRAM Miniaturization (5. 4 years) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil. AI. net © 2007 Accelerating. org

Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures as a Moore’s-Dependent Process Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures as a Moore’s-Dependent Process Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Richard Dickerson, 1978, Cal Tech: Protein crystal structure solutions grow according to n=exp(0. 19 y 1960) Dickerson’s law predicted 14, 201 solved crystal structures by 2002. The actual number (in online Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14, 250. Just 49 more. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent. © 2007 Accelerating. org

A Few Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Almost Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles Acceleration Studies A Few Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Almost Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit There are many natural cycles: Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust, Conflict-Peace… Ray Kurzweil first noted that a generalized, century-long Moore’s Law was unaffected by the U. S. Great Depression of the 1930’s. Conclusion: Human-discovered, not human-created complexity is the main dynamic here. Not many intellectual or physical resources are required to keep us on the accelerating Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999 developmental trajectory. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Acceleration is a rigged game. ” © 2007 Accelerating. org

Henry Adams, 1909: Our First “Singularity Theorist” Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Adam’s Henry Adams, 1909: Our First “Singularity Theorist” Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Adam’s final Ethereal Phase would last about four years, and "bring Thought to the limit of its possibilities. " (Singularity 1921 -2025) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Macrohistorical Singularity Books Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998 Los Macrohistorical Singularity Books Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998 Los Angeles Singularity 2130 ± 20 years New York Palo Alto Trees of Evolution, 2000 Singularity 2080 ± 30 years © 2007 Accelerating. org

Macrohistorical Singularity Books Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Macrohistorical Singularity Books Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003 Singularity 2050 ± 10 years The Singularity is Near, 2005 Singularity 2045 ± 20 years © 2007 Accelerating. org

MEST Compression: A Developmental Process The Engine of Accelerating Change MEST Compression: A Developmental Process The Engine of Accelerating Change

The MESTI Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Matter, Energy, Space, Time Information The MESTI Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Matter, Energy, Space, Time Information Increasingly Understood Poorly Known MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency is the ever decreasing MEST resources required for any standard physical process or computation. The engine of accelerating change. “More, Better, with Less. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

MEST Compression Creates a “Paradise of Resources” for Leading Edge Computation Acceleration Studies Foundation MEST Compression Creates a “Paradise of Resources” for Leading Edge Computation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Our machines are stunningly more MEST efficient with each new generation. Our main candidates for future computational technology (nanomolecular and quantum computing, reversible logic, etc. ) require little or no energy. We are all moving to increasingly energy efficient, sustainable, and virtual cities. Weight of GDP per capita goes down in all developed Service Economies. Global energy intensity (energy consumption per capita) has been flat for almost three decades in the developed world. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Physics of a “MESTI” Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Physical Driver: l Physics of a “MESTI” Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Physical Driver: l MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density Emergent Properties: l Information Intelligence (World Models) l Information Interdepence (Ethics) l Information Immunity (Resiliency) l Information Incompleteness (Search) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory: ↑ Entropy = ↑ Negentropy Loss of Energy Potential fuels gain of Information Potential. A hidden metapotential is conserved. © 2007 Accelerating. org

From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: The Decelerating Phase of Universal Development Acceleration From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: The Decelerating Phase of Universal Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development Acceleration Studies Foundation From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977) Each month is roughly 1 billion years. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

A U-Shaped Curve of Change: Inner Space to Outer Space to Inner Space Again A U-Shaped Curve of Change: Inner Space to Outer Space to Inner Space Again Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Big Bang Singularity Developmental Singularity? 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 100, 000 yrs: Matter 100, 000 yrs ago: H. sap. 1 B yrs: Protogalaxies Los Angeles New York Palo Alto 8 B yrs: Earth © 2007 Accelerating. org

Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Free Energy Rate Density Substrate Galaxies Stars Planets (Early) Plants Animals/Genetics Brains (Human) Culture (Human) Int. Comb. Engines Jets Pentium Chips Los Angeles New York Palo Alto (ergs/second/gram) Ф 0. 5 2 (counterintuitive) 75 900 20, 000(10^4) 150, 000(10^5) 500, 000(10^5) (10^6) (10^8) (10^11) Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001 time © 2007 Accelerating. org

Inner Space and Outer Space Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “I ask you Inner Space and Outer Space Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “I ask you to look both ways. For the road to knowledge of the stars is through the atom. , and the important knowledge of the atom has been reached through the stars. ” Stars and Atoms, 1928 The fundamental constants of nature, such as the mass of the proton and the charge of the electron, may be a "natural and complete specification Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington for constructing a Universe. " Mathematician and Physicist Fundamental Theory, 1946 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Accelerating Ephemeralization and Our Increasingly ‘Weightless’ Economy Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit In Accelerating Ephemeralization and Our Increasingly ‘Weightless’ Economy Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), poet and polymath Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization, ” positing that in nature, "all progressions are from material to abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage. " (e. g. , sending virtual bits to do physical work) Due to principles like superposition, entanglement, negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum (electron, photon, etc. ) appears even more ephemeral than the world of collective electricity. In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto This trend has also been called “virtualization, ” “weightlessness, ” and Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density. © 2007 Accelerating. org

MEST Compression and Inner Space: The Final Frontier? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit MEST Compression and Inner Space: The Final Frontier? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998. Real structures in spacetime (very large and very small) are: • Computationally very simple and tractable (transparent) • A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development • Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science • A “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of emergence of universal intelligence versus Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Non-Autonomous ISS Autonomous Human Brain © 2007 Accelerating. org

Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit "Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand I will move the world. " Archimedes of Syracuse (287 -212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD “The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world. ” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…) © 2007 Accelerating. org

Disruptive MEST Compression in Nanospace: Holey Optical Fibers for Microlasers Acceleration Studies Foundation Lasers Disruptive MEST Compression in Nanospace: Holey Optical Fibers for Microlasers Acceleration Studies Foundation Lasers today can made cheaply only in some areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for example, UV laser light for cancer detection and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004 that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal, " can convert cheap laser light to the wavelengths previously unavailable. A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across. This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw -dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT and networking revolutions. Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20 th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur. © 2007 Accelerating. org

MEST Compression Regularly Disrupts Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Toshiba Li-Ion MEST Compression Regularly Disrupts Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Toshiba Li-Ion Nanobattery 80% recharge in 60 seconds Two orders of magnitude jump in capacity. 99% duty after 1, 000 cycles Reliable at temp extremes Cost competitive What Might This Enable? l New consumer wearable and mobile electronics l Military apps l Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (“ 90% of an electric vehicle economy”) “The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet. ” ― William Gibson Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Our Electric Future: Coal & Natural Gas Gen. , Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles Our Electric Future: Coal & Natural Gas Gen. , Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption, is the fastest growing and most efficient component. Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds, keep 99% of their duty after 1, 000 cycles. 180+ mpg Prius. 34 miles on battery only. Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging as fast as gas tank filling, and tomorrow's power grids will be much more decentralized than today's gasoline stations, supporting even greater city densities. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Driving Toward an Electric Future, ” John Smart, 2006 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Smart’s Laws of Technology Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit 1. Tech learns ten Smart’s Laws of Technology Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit 1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do. (Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development). 2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development. (Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency, P 2 P as a proprietary or open source development) 3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers). Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Acceleration Mechanics: Exponential Growth, S, B & J Curves, Phase Change Singularities Anatomy of Acceleration Mechanics: Exponential Growth, S, B & J Curves, Phase Change Singularities Anatomy of Accelerating Change

The S Curve (Phases BG-MS) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Example: Logistic Population The S Curve (Phases BG-MS) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Example: Logistic Population Growth Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Global Population Saturation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Global Population Saturation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Trends in Transportation Speed Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Trends in Transportation Speed Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes & Hillebrand, 2006, p. 37 Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Saturation Example: Total World Energy Use Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit DOE/EIA data Saturation Example: Total World Energy Use Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the 1970’s. Real and projected total consumption is progressively flatter since. Saturation factors: 1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973) 2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new generation of technological system 3. Saturation of human population and human needs for tech transformation Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use declines dramatically proportional to per capita GDP in all cultures. Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg. the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of energy demand. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Expect such MEST efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energyeffective in ways very few of us currently understand. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Global Energy Consumption per Capita Saturation (Energy Intensity) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Global Energy Consumption per Capita Saturation (Energy Intensity) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit When per capita GDP reaches: • $3, 000 – energy demand explodes as industrialization and mobility take off, • $10, 000 – demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed, • $15, 000 – demand grows more slowly than income as services dominate economic growth and basic household energy needs are met, • $25, 000 – economic growth requires little additional energy. Later developers, using “leapfrogging technologies”, require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP. [1] Alternative measure: In recent decades, global energy consumption has been growing increasingly slower than GDP (1% 1. 5% ? ? ). [2] Los Angeles 1. Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001; New York 2. Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes and Hillebrand, 2006, p. 29. Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

The B Curve (Phases BGM-SDR) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Example: Environmental Impact The B Curve (Phases BGM-SDR) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Example: Environmental Impact of Individuals Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Jim Dator’s Four Futures (GBAS) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The Key Images/Stories/Components Jim Dator’s Four Futures (GBAS) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The Key Images/Stories/Components of Emergent Change Los Angeles New York First cited in: Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Jim Dator, Academic Press, 1979 Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

The J Curve (Phases LEH) DRIVER: Intelligence (Negentropy) Acceleration Studies Foundation ENGINE: MEST Compression The J Curve (Phases LEH) DRIVER: Intelligence (Negentropy) Acceleration Studies Foundation ENGINE: MEST Compression A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Hyperbolic. Appearing Phase (Not to Scale) DYNAMIC: Evolutionary Development CONSTRAINT: First-Order Components are Growth-Limited Hierarchical Substrates (S and B Curves) Some aspects of post-emergence and post-limit systems can’t be understood or guided by presingularity systems HP = Emergence Singularities EP = Exponential Point (Knee) HP = Hyperbolic Point (Wall) Second-Order Hyperbolic Growth Exponential-Appearing Phase with Emergence Singularities and a Limit Singularity Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Examples: Chaisson’s Phi Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar EP Linear-Appearing Phase © 2007 Accelerating. org

World Economic Performance Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit GDP Per Capita in Western World Economic Performance Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 – 1999 A. D. This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale. Note the “knee of the curve” occurs circa 1850, at the Industrial Revolution. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit How S A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit How S Curves Get Old Resource limits in a niche Material Energetic Spatial Temporal Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing No Known or Historic Limits to Computation Acceleration 1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last 2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time © 2007 Accelerating. org

Punctuated Equilibrium in Biology, Economics, Politics, Technology… Acceleration Studies Foundation Los Angeles New York Punctuated Equilibrium in Biology, Economics, Politics, Technology… Acceleration Studies Foundation Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Eldredge and Gould (Biological Species) l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”) (income distribution technology, econ, politics) Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Evo or Devo) 80% Equilibrium (Evo or Devo) Suggested Reading: For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More © 2007 Accelerating. org

Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to improve our intelligence, interdependence, and resiliency, these won’t always work. What is certain is that successful solutions always increase MEST efficiency, they “do more, better, with less. ” Strategies to capitalize on this: Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill. Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions. Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency. Build a national culture that rewards refinements. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source Software. Last year’s mature technologies. Recycling. 30 million old cell phones in U. S. homes and businesses. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Seeing MEST Efficiency and Compression Everywhere in the World Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Seeing MEST Efficiency and Compression Everywhere in the World Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Barter > Coins > Paper Money > Checks > Pay. Pal Cities (>50% of world population circa 2005) Working in Offices (or telecommuting with coming videophone virtual offices) Wal-Marts, Mega-Stores, 99 Cent Stores (Retail Endgame: Wal-Mart #1 on Fortune 500 since 2001) Flat-Pack Furniture (Ikea) Big Box Retail (Home Depot, Staples) Supply-Chain & Market Aggregators (Dell, Amazon, e. Bay) Local community/Third Space (Starbucks) © 2007 Accelerating. org

De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth Acceleration Studies Foundation De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth Acceleration Studies Foundation "No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively. " A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition (“Singularity”) © 2007 Accelerating. org

Likely Network Society Developments: Staggered Closing of Global Divides Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Likely Network Society Developments: Staggered Closing of Global Divides Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of the world now has access to a telephone*. Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom Education divide may close next (post. Conversational Interface, post-2020) Income divide may close next. Developed world plutocracy is still increasing, but slower than before. We’ve been “rationalizing” global workforce wages since 1990’s*. Power divide is likely to close last. Political change is the slowest of all domains. *World Bank, 2005 © 2007 Accelerating. org

The IA-AI Convergence of ‘Metahumanity, ’ a Human-Machine Superorganism Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) The IA-AI Convergence of ‘Metahumanity, ’ a Human-Machine Superorganism Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, ants, and other social animals are parts of “superorganisms. ” Increasingly, they can’t be understood apart from the structures their genetics compel them to construct. Their developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism, 1994 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Understanding Process Automation Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Understanding Process Automation Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend, not the arms we bend”). Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “ 7/8 comes from technical progress. ” Human contribution (20%? ) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later). Continual education and “taxing the machines” are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Long-Term: Everyone becomes a service provider, “famous to 15 people”. Termite Mound © 2007 Accelerating. org

The Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015 -2020 Developmental Attractor Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) The Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015 -2020 Developmental Attractor Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Codebreaking follows a logistic curve. Collective NLP may as well. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Date Avg. Query Platform 1998 1. 3 words Altavista 2005 2. 6 words Google 2012 5. 2 words Google. Help 20132019 10. 4 words Average spoken human-to-human query length is 11 words. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Why Will We Want to Use An Avatar/Agent Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020? Acceleration Why Will We Want to Use An Avatar/Agent Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a more efficient communication modality. Ananova, 2002 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Circa 2015 -2025: The Symbiotic Age Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit A Coevolution Circa 2015 -2025: The Symbiotic Age Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit A Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology: l A time when computers “speak our language. ” l A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. l A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. l A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Personality Capture Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit In the long run, we become Personality Capture Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long term futures have been proposed. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic. ” (Brian Arthur, SFI) © 2007 Accelerating. org

Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “I would never Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine. ” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children. ” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “ 50% her. ” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “ 80% him. ” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto We wouldn’t have it any other way. Greg Panos (and Mother) Persona. Foundation. org © 2007 Accelerating. org

Valuecosm 2040: Our Plural-Positive Political Future Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Valuecosm 2040: Our Plural-Positive Political Future Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2040’s - Recording and Publishing DT Preferences - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Early Examples: Social Network Media © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evolutionary Development: In Biology, Physics, and Beyond A New Paradigm for Change Evolutionary Development: In Biology, Physics, and Beyond A New Paradigm for Change

Simplicity and Complexity Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Universal Evolutionary Development is: Simple Simplicity and Complexity Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Universal Evolutionary Development is: Simple at the Boundaries, Complex In Between Simple Math Of the Very Small (Big Bang, Quantum Mechanics, Chemistry) Simple Math Of the Very Large Complex Math Of the In Between (Classical Mechanics, General Relativity) (Chaos, Life, Humans, Coming Technologies) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Ian Stewart, What Shape is a Snowflake? , 2001 © 2007 Accelerating. org

The Meaning of Simplicity (Wigner’s ladder) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Complex systems The Meaning of Simplicity (Wigner’s ladder) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Complex systems are evolutionary. Simple systems are developmental. Evolution Development Non-Pattern Variety Uniformity Symmetry Breaking Symmetry and Supersymmetry Chaotic Math Simple Math The universe is painting complex local evolutionary pictures, on a simple universe-wide developmental scaffolding. The picture (canvas/intelligence, in the middle) is mathematically complex (Gödelian incomplete), and trillions of times evolutionarily unique. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The framework (easel/cosmic structure, very large, & paint/physical laws, MEST structure, very small) is uniform, and simple to understand. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Replication & Variation “Natural Selection” Adaptive Radiation Chaos, Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Replication & Variation “Natural Selection” Adaptive Radiation Chaos, Contingency Pseudo-Random Search Strange Attractors Evolution Complex Environmental Interaction Evolutionary Development: The Left and Right Hands of Change Left Hand Los Angeles New York Palo Alto New Computat’l Phase Space ‘Opening’ Selection & Convergence “Convergent Selection” Emergence, Global Optima MEST-Compression Standard Attractors Development Right Hand Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’ © 2007 Accelerating. org

RVISC Life Cycle of Evolutionary Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Replication RVISC Life Cycle of Evolutionary Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Replication Spacetime stable structure, transmissible partially by internal (DNA) template and partially by external (universal environmental) template. Templates are more internal with time. l Variation Ability to encode “requisite variety” of adaptive responses to environmental challenges, to preserve integrity, create novelty. l Interaction (Complex, Spacetime Bounded) Early exploration of the phase space favors natural selection, full exploration (“canalization”) favor developmental selection. l Selection (“Natural/Evolutionary” Selection) Information-producing, randomized, chaotic attractors. l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Convergence (“Developmental” Selection) MEST-efficient, optimized, standard attractors. © 2007 Accelerating. org

How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Evolution tried How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Evolution tried this experiment. Development calculated an operational optimum. Some reptiles (e. g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

How Many Wheels on an Automobile are Developmentally Optimal? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) How Many Wheels on an Automobile are Developmentally Optimal? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

“Convergent Evolution” (Universal Development): Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) “Convergent Evolution” (Universal Development): Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Dale Russell, 1982: Anthropoid forms as a standard attractor. A number of small dinosaurs (raptors and oviraptors) developed bipedalism, binocular vision, complex hands with opposable thumbs, and brain-to-body ratios equivalent to modern birds. They were intelligent pack-hunters of both large and small animals (including our mammalian precursors) both diurnally and nocturnally. They would likely have become the dominant planetary species due to their superior intelligence, hunting, and manipulation skills without the K-T event 65 million years ago. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evolution and Development: Two Universal Systems Processes Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Evolution Evolution and Development: Two Universal Systems Processes Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Evolution Development Creativity Chance Randomness Variety/Many Possibilities Uniqueness Uncertainty Accident Bottom-up Divergent Differentiation Discovery Necessity Determinism Unity/One Constraints Sameness Predictability Design (self-organized or other) Top-Down Convergent Integration Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that both processes have explanatory value in different contexts. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The deepest question is when, where, and how they interrelate. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evo vs. Devo Political Polarities: Innovation vs. Sustainability Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Evo vs. Devo Political Polarities: Innovation vs. Sustainability Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability Developmental sustainability without generativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism). © 2007 Accelerating. org

Rise and Fall of Complex Societies Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles Rise and Fall of Complex Societies Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Mesopotamia, “Cradle of Civilization” (Modern Iraq: Assyrians, Babylonians, Sumerians) 6000 BC – 500 BC. Mineral salts from repeated irrigation, no crop rotation decimated farming by 2300 BC). Fertile no more. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Rise and Fall: Nabatea Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Rise and Fall: Nabatea Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Petra (Nabateans), 400 BC – 400 CE (Jordan: trading experts, progressively wood-depleted overirrigated, and overgrazed (hyrax burrows) Rock Hyrax (burrows are vegetation time capsules) Jared Diamond, The Third Chimpanzee, 1994 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Rise and Fall: Anasazi Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Rise and Fall: Anasazi Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Chaco Canyon and Mesa Verde (Anasazi), 800 – 1200 CE (New Mexico, Colorado: trading, ceremonial, and industry hubs, wood depleted (100, 000 timbers used in CC pueblos!), soil depleted (Chaco and Mesa Verde). No crop rotation. Unsupportable pop. for the agrotech. Pueblo Bonito, Chaco Canyon, NM Cliff Palace, Mesa Verde, CO © 2007 Accelerating. org

Dominant Empire Progression-Combustion (Phase I: Near East-to-West) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Hellennistic Dominant Empire Progression-Combustion (Phase I: Near East-to-West) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Hellennistic (Alexander) Egyptian (New Kingdom) Babylonian Spanish Austria Germany British Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Roman French © 2007 Accelerating. org

Empire Developmental Progression: (Phase II: America to Asia) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Empire Developmental Progression: (Phase II: America to Asia) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Japan (Temporary: Pop density, Few youth, no resources. East Asian Tigers (Taiwan Hong Kong South Korea Singapore) American India China Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Expect a Singapore-style “Autocratic Capitalist” transition. Population control, plentiful resources, stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital. U. S. science fairs: 50, 000 high school kids/year. Chinese science fairs: 6, 000 kids/year. For now. BHR-1, 2002 © 2007 Accelerating. org

China Inc: The Next Economic Frontier Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l China Inc: The Next Economic Frontier Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Annual average GDP growth of 9. 5% (Some urban areas up to 20%!) Largest global producer of toys, clothing, consumer electronics. Moving into cars, computers, biotech, aerospace, telecom, etc. 1. 5 billion hard workers “greatest natural resource on the planet. ” High savings, factory wages start at 40 cents/hour 45, 000 Taiwanese Contract Factories 20, 000 European Contract Factories 15, 000 U. S. Contract Factories © 2007 Accelerating. org

Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China Acceleration Studies Foundation l From 1996 to Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China Acceleration Studies Foundation l From 1996 to 2006, total internet users have gone from 36 million to 1 billion, or from 1% to 16% of the world's population. We've still got a lot of user growth ahead of us. l From 1996 to 2006, U. S. online retail e-commerce (business to consumer), perhaps the most useful proxy for the growth of virtual world economies, has grown from 5 million to a projected $95 Billion for 2006, with a current projected marginal growth rate of 12% per year. GDP per capita of online worlds like Norrath (Everquest) are 4 X higher than China’s. l In 2004, Internet penetration in China was still less than 6% of the urban population in 2004, yet by that time China already had the single largest population of online gamers. l Key Point: Think of the Metaverse Economy as the future, even more (much more!) than “China as the future. ” A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

Angus Maddison’s Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Services/Network/Information Angus Maddison’s Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Services/Network/Information Society of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”) Network 1. 0 “Mc. Jobs” & Service 65% of Jobs, 2000’s Network 2. 0 New Middle Class 40% of Jobs, 2030’s Network 3. 0 Consolidation Again 15% of Jobs, 2060’s Products/Manufacturing Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”) Manufacturing 1. 0 Exploitive Jobs 50% of Jobs, 1900’s Manufacturing 2. 0 New Middle Class 35% of Jobs, 1950’s Manufacturing 3. 0 Offshoring/Globalizing 14% of Jobs, 2000’s Resources/Agricultural Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Agriculture 1. 0 Subsistence Jobs 80% of Jobs, 1820’s Agriculture 2. 0 Family Farms 50% of Jobs, 1920’s Agriculture 3. 0 Corporate Farms 2% of Jobs, 1990’s See also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Acquiring Foresight An Emerging Discipline Acquiring Foresight An Emerging Discipline

Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929 -2004 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929 -2004 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain) Materials Science (“Substrates”) l Synthetic Materials l Transistor (Bell Labs, 1948) l Microprocessor l Fiber Optics l Lasers and Optoelectronics l Wired and Wireless Networks l Quantum Wells, Wires, and Dots l Exotic Condensed Matter Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Business. Week, 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10. 11. 2004 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929 -2004 Acceleration Studies Foundation “The Microcosm” Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929 -2004 Acceleration Studies Foundation “The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain) A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Systems and Software l Television (1940’s) l Mainframes (1950’s) l Minicomputers (1970’s) l Personal Computers (1980’s) l Cellphones/Laptops/PDAs (1990’s) l Embedded/Distributed Systems (2000’s) l Pervasive/Ubiquitous Systems (2010’s) l Cable TV, Satellites, Consumer, Enterprise, Technical Software, Middleware, Web Services, Email, CMS, Early Semantic Web, Search, KM, AI, NLP… Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Business. Week, 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10. 11. 2004 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929 -2004 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929 -2004 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain) Defense and Space (“Security-oriented human-ICT”) l Aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons, ICBMs, cruise missiles, lunar landers, nuclear powered submarines. . . (major open problems (security)) Manufacturing (“Engineering-oriented human-ICT”) l Lean manufacturing, supply-chain management, process automation, big-box retailing, robotics… (major open problems (rich-poor divide)) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Business. Week, 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10. 11. 2004 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929 -2004 Acceleration Studies Foundation “The Macrocosm” Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929 -2004 Acceleration Studies Foundation “The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain) A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Agrotech/Biotech/Health Care (“Bio-oriented human-ICT”) l Green revolution, antibiotics, pharmaceuticals, transplants, medical imaging, prosthetics, microsurgery, genomics, proteomics, combinatorial chem, bioinformatics… (“accelerating regulation”) Finance (“Capital-oriented human-ICT”) l Venture capital (American R&D, 1946), credit cards (Bank of America, 1958), mortgage derivs (1970’s), mutual and hedge funds, prog. trading, microcredit… Transportation and Energy (“Infrastructure human-ICT”) l Jet aircraft, helicopters, radar, containerized shipping l Nuclear power, solar energy, gas-powered turbines, hydrogen (“accelerating efficiencies (hidden change)”) © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929 -2004 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Evo Devo Perspective: Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929 -2004 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain) Social and Legal (“Fairness-oriented human-ICT”) l Civil rights, social security, fair labor standards, ADA, EOE, tort reform, class actions, Miranda rights, zoning, DMV code, alimony, palimony, criminal law reform, penal reform, education reform, privacy law, feminism, minority power, spousal rights, gay civil unions. . . (“accelerating refinements” (vs. disruptive changes), consider E. U. vs. U. S. vs China. ) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Business. Week, 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10. 11. 2004 © 2007 Accelerating. org

Evo Devo Perspective: A 2030 Vision Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Please Entertain Evo Devo Perspective: A 2030 Vision Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Please Entertain this Proposition: “Human-ICT” computational domains are saturating. “Tech-Microcosmic” ICT is not. Human population flatlines in 2050 (“First World effect”). 2 nd order deriv. of world energy demand is negative. ICT acceleration continues. Defense, Security, Space, Finance, Social, Legal, Agrotech, Biotech, Health Care, Finance, Transportation, Energy and Envirotech all will look surprisingly similar in 2030, but with major ICT extensions. We see evolutionarily more and better of the above, but now global, not local. Meanwhile Condensed Matter Physics, the Nanoworld, and Cosmology have continued to surprise us. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto ICT (Sensors, Storage, Communication, Connectivity, Simulation, Interface) will look, and feel, powerfully different, year by year. © 2007 Accelerating. org

Leading the Future Creating, Discovering, and Managing Leading the Future Creating, Discovering, and Managing

We Have Two Options: Future Shock or Future Shaping Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) We Have Two Options: Future Shock or Future Shaping Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “We need a pragmatic optimism, a cando, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and paralyzing adherence to the status quo. ” ― David Brin Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

MEST Compression Implication: Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) MEST Compression Implication: Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Technological (dominant since 1920 -50) “It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in itself, how easily it can be developed) l Economic (dominant 1800 -1950’s, secondary now) “It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it) l Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now) “It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it) Developmental Trends: 1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first. ” 2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Pluralism examples: 50, 000 Internat’l NGO’s, rise of the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc. © 2007 Accelerating. org

IP as an Innovation Rate Regulator: Lessons of Bose and Microvision Acceleration Studies Foundation IP as an Innovation Rate Regulator: Lessons of Bose and Microvision Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Innovation diffusion prevented due to overly restrictive IP policy (often due to philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation). © 2007 Accelerating. org

The Leader’s Challenge: Choosing “Plural Positive” Futures Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los The Leader’s Challenge: Choosing “Plural Positive” Futures Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Pluralistic Positive-Sum Differentiated “Both/And” versus Examples: Calculator Use AND Computer/TV Use AND Metaverse Use AND Automated Cars AND Digital Twins AND Plutocratic Zero-Sum Homogeneous “Either/Or” Math Skills Social/Study Skills Reading Skills Driving Skills Self-Empowerment © 2007 Accelerating. org

Wikipedia breeds Futurepedia: A Foresight Vision Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles Wikipedia breeds Futurepedia: A Foresight Vision Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto + Prediction Markets, Delphi, and the Wisdom of Foresighted Crowds © 2007 Accelerating. org

A Closing Visual: Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not. Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) A Closing Visual: Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not. Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2007 Accelerating. org

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